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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 70 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

• Thursday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 66 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 75 °
• Low: 54 °
• Chance of Rain

• Saturday
• 
• High: 77 °
• Low: 54 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 55 °
• Clear

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia 
938 am EDT Wednesday may 22 2013 


Synopsis... 
the combination of high pressure over the Atlantic and southwest 
winds will continue to pull a warm and humid airmass into the region 
through Thursday. A cold front will pass through the middle Atlantic 
Thursday night. High pressure returns to the area Friday into the 
weekend with drier conditions and cooler temperatures expected. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
with high pressure over the Atlantic...southerly flow will 
continue today. Warm and humid conditions will also persist and 
with marginal instability isolated showers and thunderstorms will 
be possible in the afternoon into the evening. Not expecting widespread 
coverage of precipitation due to the lack of forcing. High temperatures will be 
in the low to middle 80s under a prtly cloudy sky. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Friday night/... 
deep layer moisture will slowly increase Wednesday into Wednesday night ahead 
of a low pressure systm passing through the Great Lakes region. Did 
include a slight chance for a shower/thunderstorm Wednesday afternoon/eveng with a warm and 
moist airmass in place...however most areas should remain dry due to 
a lack of forcing. Otw...expect a prtly cloudy sky with highs in the 
middle 80s. 


For Thursday...cold front approaches from the Ohio Valley...and rain 
likely with increasing moisture and short wave energy aloft. Up to a half 
inch of precipitation possible with the best chance for rain in the afternoon. Hi 
temperatures genrly in the low 80s. Readings will be a bit cooler near 
the coast. The rain will end from west to east Thursday night/Friday morning as 
the cold front advances off the coast. Not expecting skies to 
completely clear out...with moisture still in place aloft following 
the surface frontal passage. 


Drier conds expected by Friday afternoon as flow becomes northwesterly for the 
first time in several days...and temperatures only reaching the middle 70s 
in most locations. 


&& 


Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/... 
Canadian high pressure builds into the area from the northwest Friday night. Clearing 
& cool with decoupling winds inland. Coastal winds stay mixed due to low 
prs slowly pulling away to the NE. Lows M-u40s from i95 on west... 
near 50 in vicinity of ches Bay and l-m50s at the coast. 


Sunny & pleasant Sat with 500 mb ridge ovrhd. Highs in the l-m70s xcpt 
60s at the beaches. Pt cloudy Sat night as some high level moisture ovrsprds 
region. Lows 50-55. Pt sunny and a bit warmer sun. Highs M-u70s xcpt 
65-70 at the beaches. 


Tricky forecast Erly next week. Models now increasing moisture due to combo of 
onshore east-southeast flow and warm front apprchg from the SW. Appears best 
sprt for probability of precipitation will be across southern & western Virginia/northern NC Monday & Monday 
night. Kept slght chance probability of precipitation on Tuesday for now given the low confidence 
this far out. Highs Monday l-m70s. Lows 55-60. Highs Tuesday M-u70s. 


&& 


Aviation /14z Wednesday through Sunday/... 
MVFR/IFR ceilings expeceted to burn off next 2-4 hours. Will eventually see 
scattered-broken cumulus between 3-4k feet this afternoon. Kept thunder out of forecast as 
chances are to low to include at this time. 


Outlook: IFR stratus will be possible again Thursday morng. Better chance 
for showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and eveng...as a cold front 
approaches from the west. Front pushes off the CST during Friday...with 
lagging upper trough not moving offshr until late Friday night. So...there 
could be lingering lower ceilings and visibilities from scattered precipitation right through Friday 
night. VFR conditions return for Sat and sun...as hi pressure builds into 
and over the region. 


&& 


Marine... 
per current observation...decided to hoist marginal Small Craft Advisory headlines (15-20kts) for 
ches Bay today. 


Pvs dscn: 
have issued a Small Craft Advisory for the three northern coastal waters from this eveng through 
Thursday eveng. S winds 15 to 20 knots with possible gusts to 25 knots during 
this time period will increase seas to 5 to 6 feet. 


Otherwise...winds /waves/seas will remain just below Small Craft Advisory criteria 
over the remainder of the waters. Cold front will then cross the waters 
late Thursday night into Friday afternoon. Strong northwest or north winds of 15 to 20 knots 
and gusty (likely Small Craft Advisory conditions) will occur behind the front and 
associated lagging upper trough Friday afternoon into Sat. Hi pressure will build in from 
the northwest Friday night through Sat. 


&& 


Akq watches/warnings/advisories... 
Maryland...none. 
NC...none. 
Virginia...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for 
anz630>632-634. 
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to midnight EDT 
Thursday night for anz650-652-654. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...bmd/mas 
near term...bmd/mas/dap 
short term...mas 
long term...mpr 
aviation...mpr/tmg 
marine...mpr/tmg