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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 70 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 70 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 64 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 79 °
• Low: 55 °
• Chance of Rain

• Saturday
• 
• High: 79 °
• Low: 54 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia 
356 am EDT Tuesday may 21 2013 


Synopsis... 
the combination of high pressure over the Atlantic and southwest 
surface winds will continue to pull a warm and humid airmass into 
the region through Thursday. A cold front will pass through the 
Middle Atlantic States Thursday night. Surface high pressure returns 
to area Friday into the weekend with drier conditions and cooler 
temperatures expected. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
warm and humid airmass coupled with 20 knots of low level wind shear 
and weak middle level trough is producing some light shower activity 
across northern NC. Some of this shower activity will make its way 
into the Wakefield County Warning Area...have boosted probability of precipitation accordingly. Southwest 
surface winds will stay above 5 knots overnight...which will hamper any 
chance for fog development. Another warm and humid night ahead as 
temperatures only drop into the middle-upper 60s region-wide. 


There will still be plenty of low level moisture(pwats ~1.7 
in) and moderate cape values(~1100 j/kg)...so generally have 30 to 
40 percent probability of precipitation on Tuesday during the afternoon and early evening 
hours...decreasing for the late night and morning hours. 


Temperature on Tuesday will maximum out near 80 along the coast to the 
middle 80s inland. High temperatures may end up being a few degrees cooler 
if cloud and precipitation regions are more expansive than anticipated. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Thursday night/... 
on Wednesday...there will be less coverage of precipitation as 
upper level support weakens. Guidance on Wednesday is still 
unclear as to where to focus precipitation and kept 30 percent 
probability of precipitation area wide that afternoon and early evening. 


On Thursday...upper level dynamics increase as the cold front over 
the plains states approaches the area. Have 40-50 percent probability of precipitation for 
showers and thunderstorms except 30 percent in the far southeast. 


NAM has lowered maximum temperatures significantly during this period 
and is close to Euro. Lowered readings a few degrees from the 
previous forecast with highs low to middle 80s Tuesday...middle to upper 80s 
Wednesday and around 80 on Thursday. Readings will be a bit cooler 
near the coast. Lows will be generally in the middle to upper 60s. 


&& 


Long term /Friday through Monday/... 
long range models continue to push cold front across the region Thursday 
night and offshore Friday am. Will keep the chance probability of precipitation with this 
feature. Lingering moisture now prognosticated to shift offshore with the 
boundary Friday so will only carry chance probability of precipitation along the coast Friday morning. 
Lows Thursday night in the 60s. 


Canadian high pressure builds into the area from the northwest Friday afternoon through 
the rest of the Holiday weekend. Upshot will be a dry prd with 
temperatures a few degrees below normal. 


Still warm Friday with highs in the u70s-l80s. Cold air advection kicks in Friday night. 
Lows through weekend in the 50s. Highs each day l-m70s...warming into the 
M-u70s Monday. 


&& 


Aviation /08z Tuesday through Saturday/... 
south-southwest flow will continue today through Thursday...with isolated or scattered showers 
and thunderstorms expected across the region. MVFR/IFR ceilings likely to 
develop or occur through around 15z...then mainly VFR conditions 
expected over the area (outside of pcpn) the remainder of the day 
into this eveng. More MVFR/IFR ceilings could develop tonight into Wednesday 
morng...and again Wednesday night into Thursday morng. A cold front will move 
across the area Thursday eveng into early Friday afternoon. Hi pressure returns for 
late Friday through sun. 


&& 


Marine... 
no flags expected as srly flow (aob 15kts with seas 2-4 ft) continues 
around high prs off the coast through middle week. Prs gradient increases late 
Wednesday ahead of apprchg cdfrnt prognosticated to cross the area Thursday night. 
Any Small Craft Advisory cdntns that develop will be marginal ahead of said front. Wna 
continues to forecast seas around 5 feet out near 20 nm starting late Wednesday 
but will hold off on any headline this far out for now. 


Winds shift into northwest then north behind front Friday. Next threat for Small Craft Advisory cndtns 
comes Friday night/Erly Sat with a decent cold air advection surge expeceted. 


&& 


Akq watches/warnings/advisories... 
Maryland...none. 
NC...none. 
Virginia...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...bmd 
near term...bmd/dap 
short term...lsa 
long term...mpr 
aviation...tmg 
marine...mpr