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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Thursday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 64 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 72 °
• Low: 48 °
• Chance of Rain

• Saturday
• 
• High: 72 °
• Low: 50 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 73 °
• Low: 45 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Monday
• 
• High: 75 °
• Low: 52 °
• Clear

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia 
239 am EDT Thursday may 23 2013 


Synopsis... 
the combination of high pressure over the Atlantic and southwest 
winds will continue to pull a warm and humid airmass into the region 
through Thursday. A cold front will pass through the middle Atlantic 
Thursday night into Friday morning. High pressure returns to the 
area late Friday into the weekend with drier conditions and cooler 
temperatures expected. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am this morning/... 
update...isolated showers have ended across far southeast Virginia and NE NC 
while showers and a stray thunderstorm are continuing in the 
Piedmont. 


Mainly dry conds for the overnight hours across the eastern half of 
the County Warning Area. Temperatures remain well above normal tonight as southerly flow 
persists...lows in the upper 60s under a prtly to mostly cloudy sky. 
Patchy fog is possible but more in the way of low stratus is 
expected. Chances for rain will increase Thursday morng as moisture and 
middle-level energy embedded in the SW flow aloft increases. 


&& 


Short term /6 am this morning through Saturday/... 
chances for rain will increase through the day Thursday as deep layer moisture 
increases and low pressure approaches from the west. Not expecting 
widespread severe weather however an isolated damaging Wing gust is possible as 
shear profiles increase ahead of an approaching middle-level trough. 
Don't expect it to rain the entire day however coverage is enough to 
warrant likely (70%) probability of precipitation. Best timing for heavy rain will be in 
the afternoon/Erly evening hours as moisture increases and the middle Atlantic 
sits under the right entrance region of an upper-level jet streak. Hi 
temperatures genrly in the low 80s. Readings will be a bit cooler near the 
coast. The rain will end from west to east Erly Friday as the cold 
front advances off the coast. Not expecting skies to completely clear 
out...with moisture still in place aloft following the surface frontal passage. 


Drier conds expected by Friday afternoon (though keeping a chance for showers 
over eastern areas with the upper-level trough still west of the area) as 
surface flow becomes nwrly for the first time in several days...and 
temperatures only reaching the low to middle 70s in most locations. Surface hi 
pressure builds in from the west on Sat leading to a mostly sny sky and 
noticeably cooler temperatures (highs only in the low to middle 70s). 


&& 


Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/... 
medium range forecast period characterized by modified Canadian high 
pressure dropping northwest to southeast across the area for the latter half of 
the Memorial Day weekend. Aloft, closed upper level low over the 
northeast and Atlantic Canada will slowly lift NE Sunday, allowing 
for modest height rises aloft, and with it a general incremental 
ramping up of temperatures through the period. It will also allow for 
northwest flow aloft across the southern middle-Atlantic Sunday and 
Monday. Low (slight chance) probability of precipitation remain in place for Memorial Day 
afternoon/evening as a weak disturbance/middle level trough drops across 
the region and a surface warm front lifts north to the west. 


Bermuda high/Summer-like pattern reloads for the middle to latter 
potion of the week, as middle-upper level ridging rebuilds across 
the eastern half of the Continental U.S. And surface high slides offshore. Rainfall 
opportunities will primarily be diurnally driven Monday-Wed, with 
little more than partly cloudy and increasingly muggy conditions 
by night. 


&& 


Aviation /07z Thursday through Monday/... 
gradual lowering of ceilings into the morning hours across the forecast area. Scattered-broken St at or below 
1kft beginning to spread northward through portions of NC...expected to arrive 
from the S through the early/middle morning hours. Additionally...area of 
rain showers/few embedded T in vicinity of pdmnt of Virginia/NC will be moving very slowly 
to the east in the next several hours. Widespread IFR ceilings expected across the forecast area 
into the evening hours along west/ incrsg coverage of rain showers/isold-sct T. Ptntl 
for IFR visibilities in heavy rain. Rain slo to end this evening...along west/ only 
gradual improvement of ceilings. Generally (any) ceilings Friday VFR (abv 3kft) along 
west/ developing gusty northwest winds (to 25-30 kt) by afternoon. Winds slo to subside 
into Sat. Low probability MVFR ceilings in vicinity of CST Friday night into Sat as coastal low 
pressure slo to develop (offshore). Otherwise...VFR conds expected Sat through 
Monday. 


&& 


Marine... 
Small Craft Advisory for the Bay and northern coastal waters has begun and 
continues into Thursday night. Winds/waves/seas slowly ramp up as 
pressure gradient tightens between Bermuda high and approaching 
cold front to the west. As gradient continues to tighten...guidance 
continues to show seas ramping upward into Small Craft Advisory range over southern 
coastal waters late Thursday afternoon and evening. Have went ahead 
and hoisted the Small Craft Advisory for the southern coastal waters (south of cape 
charles) with this evening's package. 


Front will cross the waters late Thursday night/early Friday through Friday 
afternoon...with a strong north-northwest surge of winds (~20 knots and gusty) 
expected Friday through early Saturday. Small Craft Advisory flags are likely to be 
needed through this period...with conditions to become sub-Small Craft Advisory with 
winds diminishing at or below 15kt Sat afternoon through Monday as high 
pressure builds across the waters over the Holiday weekend. 


&& 


Akq watches/warnings/advisories... 
Maryland...none. 
NC...none. 
Virginia...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for anz630>632- 
634. 
Small Craft Advisory until 7 am EDT Friday for anz650-652-654. 
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 am EDT 
Friday for anz656-658. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...bmd/mas 
near term...bmd/dap 
short term...mas 
long term...mam 
aviation...alb 
marine...jdm/mam