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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 77 °
• Low: 64 °
• Rain Showers

• Thursday
• 
• High: 77 °
• Low: 64 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Friday
• 
• High: 77 °
• Low: 61 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Saturday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 68 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 72 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia 
1122 am EDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013 


Synopsis... 
low pressure moves well off the coast coast with a cold front pushing 
south through the Carolinas. High pressure builds into the region 
from the north Thursday through Friday. A wave of low pressure 
will lift along a stalled frontal boundary off the southeast coast 
Friday and Saturday. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
latest water vapor imagery depicts upper trough over the eastern 
Continental U.S. With strong high pressure building over the plains. An 
embedded shortwave is also visible over western Kentucky/Tennessee this morning. At 
the surface...confluence will result in building high pressure over 
the region in wake of the departing cold front. A weak frontal 
boundary currently located over the Ohio Valley will dissipate in 
that region this afternoon. While the best moisture has been 
shunted offshore with the front...remnant low level moisture 
(precip waters per latest kwal sounding only at 1.21 inches) 
exists. Northeasterly low level flow will also advect moisture from the western 
Atlantic into the lowest levels...generally below 700mb. Dry northwesterly 
flow aloft will scour out moisture above 700mb. Subtle forcing for 
ascent in response to the aforementioned shortwave and a weak 
shear zone will combine with abundant low level moisture for the 
possibility of afternoon/early evening light showers. Quantitative precipitation forecast amounts 
will be minimal...with generally less than one tenth of an inch 
possible. Otherwise...partly cloudy-mostly cloudy skies expected 
today with NE winds 5-10 miles per hour. Temperatures forecast to only warm to near 
80 into the low 80s. NE flow will result in temperatures only in the 
middle/upper 70s along the immediate coast. Temperatures will fall into the 
low 60s tonight. Inland locales...especially over the Virginia Piedmont could 
see temperatures fall into the upper 50s depending on cloud cover. 


&& 


Short term /Thursday through Friday/... 
surface hi pressure and associated dry air continues to expand southward into the 
mdatlc region tonight into Friday. A period of very comfy (ery) Summer weather expected 
west/ relatively low dewpoints...and temperatures avgg several degrees f below normal. 


Any lingering rain showers (inland) this evening dissipate west/ clear-pcldy conds 
expected overnight tonight. Models suggest ptntl for diurnally driven convection 
over the higher terrain...primarily west of the forecast area both Thu/Fri. 
Otherwise...pcldy west to mainly sunny elsewhere on Thursday. 00z/19 NAM developing more 
significant area of low pressure in vicinity of coastal NC (alg stalled frontal boundary along 
the coastal carolinas) by Friday...spreading cloudiness and low chance probability of precipitation into 
portions of NE NC and extreme southeast Virginia. Not completely adjusting forecast in 
that direction...but have added scattered-broken cloudiness to those areas 
(mnly due to continued on shore low level flo). Otherwise...mainly sunny conds 
expected. 


Low temperatures tonight 9and again Thursday ngt) from the m50s to l60s. Hi temperatures 
Thursday from the M/u70s at the CST to the l80s (well) inland. Hi temperatures 
Friday from the u70s at the CST to the m80s (well) inland. 


&& 


Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/... 
a rather benign pattern is expected this weekend into early next 
week as high pressure slowly drops S off the middle-Atlantic coast. 
There is very little potential for shower/thunderstorm development 
due to a lack of large scale forcing and any surface focusing 
mechanisms. A general shift of the low-level flow from southeast-SW will 
produce a steady warming trends with highs rising into the middle/upper 
80s Saturday...to the upper 80s Sunday...and eventually to the upper 
80s/low 90s by Monday and Tuesday. Low temperatures should trend 
upward from around 65 early in the period to the upper 60s/low 70s 
late in the period. 


&& 


Aviation /15z Wednesday through Sunday/... 
cold front will continue to push farther southeast of the area during 
today. Lingering low level moist combined with some clearing has 
resulted in the formation of stratus and lower SC behind the front. 
These IFR/MVFR ceilings and possible visibilities will be around until 13z or 
14z this morng. Hi pressure with drier air will build in from the north-northeast 
later this morng into Thursday. The hi will then slide off the CST for 
Thursday afternoon into the weekend. Mainly VFR conditions should prevail. 


&& 


Marine... 
low pressure moving NE toward the northern Atlantic will pull the cold front farther 
S and east of the area during today. A brief shallow northerly cold air advection 
surge will result in 15 to 20 knots and sca's for the entire ches 
Bay...the James River at the James River Bridge/Hampton Roads 
bridge Tunnel...and the Currituck sand until 10 am this morng. As 
for the ocean...north-northeast winds of 15 to 20 knots are expected during today 
with seas 3 to 4 feet...as hi pressure builds in from the north. The hi will 
linger off the NE CST Thursday afternoon through the end of the week...as a 
weak area of low pressure remains quasi-stationary off the NC 
Outer Banks. This will maintain steady 10-15 knots on shore flow...which 
will help maintain 3-4 feet seas. The hi slowly sinks S off the 
CST during the weekend...with the wind shifting to the S and 
remaining at or below 15 knots. 


&& 


Akq watches/warnings/advisories... 
Maryland...none. 
NC...moderate rip current risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for 
ncz102. 
Virginia...moderate rip current risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for 
vaz098. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...alb 
near term...Sam 
short term...alb 
long term...ajz 
aviation...tmg 
marine...tmg