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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Monday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 70 °
• T-Storms

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 70 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 64 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 63 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 50 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia 
1040 PM EDT sun may 19 2013 


Synopsis... 
a weak front will slowly push north of the area tonight as high 
pressure becomes anchored well off the coast. Showers and thunderstorms 
will become more widely scattered after Monday...with above average 
temperatures prevailing through much of the upcoming week. A cold 
front will pass through the Middle Atlantic States late Thursday into 
early Friday...with cooler temperatures expected by next weekend. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Monday morning/... 
latest weather analysis depicts a rather diffuse upper level 
low situated from eastern Kentucky to SW Virginia and NC. At the surface...the 
frontal boundary is also fairly weak...now generally to the north of the 
County Warning Area. Surface winds are fairly light and somewhat chaotic in direction 
due to ongoing scattered rain showers activity. Made only minimal changes 
to the forecast overnight...have a few areas of likely probability of precipitation 
through midnight per latest radar trends...with chance probability of precipitation for most 
of the County Warning Area. Infrared satellite generally shows cloud tops are warming...but 
there are still a few spots where rain showers/isolated thunderstorms are popping 
up west/ cooling cloud tops. 


Some patchy fog is expected to develop once again early Monday 
morning... especially in areas north of Interstate 64 and on the 
Maryland Eastern Shore. Widespread dense fog is not anticipated as 
the fog should mainly develop from lowering stratus. 


Low temperatures Monday morning are forecast to range through the 
60s across the area. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Monday morning through Wednesday/... 
another round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected Monday 
under the influence of the dissipating upper level trough. A bit 
more instability is expected which will result in more widespread 
thunderstorm activity than was experienced Sunday. Heavy rainfall 
will be the main threat with activity moving rather slowly. Have 
likely probability of precipitation across the southern Piedmont and south central Virginia 
and into the North Carolina counties east to near the Chowan river. 
High temperatures will be slightly warmer than Sunday with readings 
generally around 80 inland and the low to middle 70s at the coast. 


Conditions should begin to dry out Monday night and Tuesday as the 
high pressure over the southeastern states begins to dominate. 
Highest probability of precipitation (showers/thunderstorms) will be in southeast Virginia 
and northeast North Carolina at 30 percent. Temperatures are 
forecast to top out in the middle to upper 80s in most areas with upper 70s 
to lower 80s near the coast and over the lower Eastern Shore. 
Precipitation should end by late Tuesday evening. 


For Wednesday...models are all over the place with probability of precipitation. With no 
strong triggers for convection or indications of where convection 
will focus...kept probability of precipitation at 30 percent throughout the County Warning Area. High 
temperatures will be similar to what is forecast for Tuesday. 


&& 


Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/... 
long term period starts off Wednesday night with a chance for rain...mainly 
west of I-95...ahead of an approaching middle-level trough and associated 
cold front. S/SW flow will keep temperatures above normal...with lows in the 
middle to upper 60s. This pattern continues into Thursday/Thursday night with still a 
30-40% chance for shwrs/tstms. Deep-layer moisture is abundant however 
forcing is a limiting factor due to a lack of warm air advection and most short wave 
energy staying off to the north. Models have continued to speed up 
the timing of the front...with the frontal passage now expected to be sometime 
late Thursday/Thursday night. Highs Thursday in the low to middle 80s. Behind the front Friday 
into the weekend...diminishing chances for rain and slightly lower temperatures 
(but still around seasonal norms) with highs in the middle 70s to lower 
80s and lows in the 50s. 


&& 


Aviation /03z Monday through Friday/... 
lots of low level moisture means a chance for MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility 
to develop during the overnight along with periods of light rain. 
IFR ceilings likely to settle into ric and sby before midnight and 
MVFR/IFR ceilings for the other terminals after midnight. Clouds will 
persist through the morning hours before lifting to MVFR/VFR conditions by 
late morning and afternoon. Winds will be generally southeast-S tonight 5-10 
knots...and S-SW on Monday 10-15 knots. More scattered showers and thunderstorms 
possible Monday afternoon with the instability and heating...then high pressure 
expected to build over the region. Monday night may be prime for 
dense fog developing but only mentioning that as possiblity at 
this time. 


&& 


Marine... 
southeast flow prevails tonight as a warm front lifts north of the area. Hires 
models show a quick shot of Small Craft Advisory winds over the Bay later this 
aftn/eveng...but not confident enough or long lasting enough to issue a 
Small Craft Advisory headline for this at this time. Winds stay genrly 10-15 knots overnight and 
shift from southeast to S. Seas will approach 4-5 feet out 20 nm over coastal 
waters...with best chance for 5+ feet over the northern two zones where 
Small Craft Advisory headlines continue through the overnight hours. 12z wavewatch shows 5 feet 
seas there lasting into Monday and Monday night...but with wavewatch 
running high during southerly flow as of late...will end the Small Craft Advisory at 
4 am tonight with the next shift either expiring the hazard or 
extending it out in time. Otw...sub-sca southerly winds continue for 
the next few days ahead of an approaching cold front which crosses 
the area late Thursday/Thursday night. 


&& 


Hydrology... 
river level forecasts have been lowered substantially due to lack 
of significant rainfall in the headwaters. 


&& 


Akq watches/warnings/advisories... 
Maryland...none. 
NC...none. 
Virginia...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 4 am EDT Monday for anz650-652. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...lkb 
near term...lkb/lsa 
short term...lsa 
long term...jef 
aviation...jef/jao 
marine...mas 
hydrology...akq