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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Monday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 66 °
• T-Storms

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 68 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 66 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 70 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 59 °
• Chance of T-Storms

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia 
652 am EDT Monday may 20 2013 


Synopsis... 
a weak front has pushed north of the area while high pressure becomes 
anchored well off the coast. Showers and thunderstorms will become 
more widely scattered after Monday...with above average 
temperatures prevailing through much of the upcoming week. A cold 
front will pass through the Middle Atlantic States late Thursday into 
early Friday...with cooler temperatures expected by next weekend. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
fairly weak frontal boundary...is now to the north of the County Warning Area causing 
surface winds to be generally from the south. Increased probability of precipitation for 
western and central portions of the County Warning Area due to increased shower 
activity visible on radar...do not expect any thunder through the 
morning hours but with precipitable waters  ~1... moderate rainfall to 
occur during any showers...greatly reducing visibilities. 


Some patchy fog has develop once again Monday morning... 
especially in areas north of Interstate 64. Widespread dense fog 
is not anticipated as the fog should mainly develop from lowering 
stratus. 


Expect showers and thunderstorms to continue to develop Monday 
afternoon...lasting through the evening hours. Dew points well into the 
60s with temperatures rising to ~80 along with moderate instability will 
fuel the development of these storms. But...due to rather weak 
wind shear...not expecting any severe thunderstorms. NAM bufr 
sounding indicating precipitable waters  will again be high...ranging from 
1.60-1.75in. With that in mind...any storms that develop will have 
heavy rainfall...causing reduced visibilities and hazardous 
driving conditions. 


High temperatures for Monday are expected to be near 80 across the 
County Warning Area...while slightly cooler near the coast. 


&& 


Short term /Tuesday through Wednesday night/... 
conditions fairly similar to Monday will persist Tuesday into 
Wednesday. S/south-southwest winds will draw warm and moist air from the 
south...and coupled with marginal instability...will create 
favorable conditions for shower and thunderstorm development. 
Precipitation coverage will wane each evening as the instability 
decreases. Temperatures are forecast to top out in the middle to upper 
80s in most areas with upper 70s to lower 80s near the coast and over 
the lower Eastern Shore. 


&& 


Long term /Thursday through Sunday/... 
long term period starts off Wednesday night with a chance for rain...mainly 
west of I-95...ahead of an approaching middle-level trough and associated 
cold front. S/SW flow will keep temperatures above normal...with lows in the 
middle to upper 60s. This pattern continues into Thursday/Thursday night with still a 
30-40% chance for shwrs/tstms. Deep-layer moisture is abundant however 
forcing is a limiting factor due to a lack of warm air advection and most short wave 
energy staying off to the north. Models have continued to speed up 
the timing of the front...with the frontal passage now expected to be sometime 
late Thursday/Thursday night. Highs Thursday in the low to middle 80s. Behind the front Friday 
into the weekend...diminishing chances for rain and slightly lower temperatures 
(but still around seasonal norms) with highs in the middle 70s to lower 
80s and lows in the 50s. 


&& 


Aviation /12z Monday through Friday/... 
IFR conditions have developed this morning from a krwi to kxsa 
line westward. Think this will persist through 14z-15z...aided by 
area of showers lifting northeastward out of central NC. Also...IFR/LIFR has 
persisted since 06z at ksby...but conditions should improve by 
13z. Elsewhere...VFR conditions have prevailed overnight. 


For the most part...expect today to be VFR. However...increased 
amount of sunshine expected today should allow more thunderstorms to develop 
east of I-95...affecting kphf/korf/kecg during the afternoon 
hours. Tempo group added to taf. Heavier showers/thunderstorms will cause 
brief IFR conditions. Think thunderstorm potential less at ksby and...due 
to morning shower activity...at kric. Expect tonight to have mainly 
VFR/MVFR conditions...but potential does exist for IFR to develop 
after 07z. 


Mainly VFR in the Tuesday to Thursday time frame...with the potential for 
isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms both Tue/Wed. More widespread shower/thunderstorm 
activity expected Thursday along/ahead of next cold front...which moves across 
the area Thursday/Thursday night. 


&& 


Marine... 
S/south-southeast winds continue all areas this morning...as high pressure surface 
and aloft prevails off the East Coast. This general pattern will 
continue into Thursday. Winds expected to be in the 10 to 15 knots 
range on the Bay...and around 15kt on the ocean during most of this 
period. Thus...no scas are anticipated through Tuesday. Current Small Craft Advisory 
for seas on the northern coastal waters will be allowed to expire at 
4 am. Seas near 20 nm will continue to flirt with 5 
feet...especially on the northern coastal waters. However...a slow 
subsiding trend is expected. Scattered showers/thunderstorms expected today and 
tonight...with a slow decrease in coverage northern areas on 
Tuesday. 


Next frontal boundary will move into/across the area in the Thursday/Friday 
time frame. Latest GFS suggests there will be 2 frontal 
passages...one late Thursday...the second stronger one late Friday. 
Showers/thunderstorms expected to accompany both fronts. Winds behind second 
boundary likely to reach/exceed Small Craft Advisory criteria for several hours after 
frontal passage. 


&& 


Hydrology... 
river level forecasts have been lowered substantially due to lack 
of significant rainfall in the headwaters. 


&& 


Akq watches/warnings/advisories... 
Maryland...none. 
NC...none. 
Virginia...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...lkb 
near term...dap 
short term...dap/lsa 
long term...jef 
aviation...worse 
marine...worse 
hydrology...