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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Friday
• 
• High: 70 °
• Low: 50 °
• T-Storms

• Saturday
• 
• High: 68 °
• Low: 57 °
• Clear

• Sunday
• 
• High: 72 °
• Low: 48 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Monday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 59 °
• Clear

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 64 °
• Chance of Rain

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia 
1027 PM EDT Thursday may 23 2013 


Synopsis... 
a cold front will pass through the middle Atlantic overnight into 
Friday morning. High pressure returns to the area late Friday into 
the weekend with drier conditions and cooler temperatures 
expected. 


&& 


Near term /through Friday/... 


Narrow line of showers out ahead of main cold front just pushing 
into western counties. Storms generally remain sub severe with 
instability of the day rapidly diminishing with loss of peak 
heating a few hours ago. Rain showers will quickly push across from west 
to east overnight/early Friday morning as the cold front crosses the area. A 
few gusts to 30-40 knots can be expected with its passage, not 
expecting skies to completely clear out...with moisture still in 
place aloft following the surface frontal passage. Low temperatures tonight in the low to 
middle 60s. 


&& 


Short term /Friday night through Sunday/... 
aforementioned middle-level trough slides through the middle Atlantic Friday 
afternoon...and with decent moisture still from 950-700 mb will 
maintain a 20-30% chance for showers along and east of I-95. 
Overall...expect a drying trend as the trough pulls offshore and 
strong cold air advection works into the area. A prtly cloudy sky in the afternoon with 
noticeably cooler temperatures...highs only in the low to middle 70s. 


Surface hi pressure slowly builds in from the west over the weekend as nwrly 
cold air advection flow continues. Continued cooler temperatures (highs in the low to middle 
70s and lows in the middle 40s to lower 50s). This is almost 10 degrees 
below normal for late may. 


&& 


Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/... 
have gone close to a European model (ecmwf)/hpc(wpc) blend with this period, which 
yields only minor changes to medium range forecast. GFS has started 
to catch on to ecmwf's slower solution with respect to progress of closed upper 
level low over the northeast and Atlantic Canada. This slower 
solution allows for a slow warmup through the period. It will also 
allow for continued northwest flow across the southern middle-Atlantic Sunday 
and Monday. Low (slight chance) probability of precipitation remain in place for Memorial 
Day afternoon/evening and again on Tuesday as a weak disturbance/middle 
level trough drops across the region while a warm front lifts north 
across the Missouri/lower Ohio valleys. 


By midweek, the front shunts north of the area. Middle-upper level 
ridging rebuilds across the eastern half of the Continental U.S. As surface high 
slides off the middle-Atlantic coast. Resultant Bermuda 
high/"summerlike" setup will allow for increasing temperatures (and 
humidity values) for the middle to latter part of next week. Rainfall 
opportunities during this period will primarily be diurnally driven, 
with little more than partly cloudy and increasingly muggy 
conditions by night. 


&& 


Aviation /02z Friday through Tuesday/... 
scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to 
develop along a Lee side trough over central Virginia/NE NC this 
afternoon. This in advance of a cold front...located over the 
Ohio/Tennessee valleys as of 2 PM EDT. VFR/MVFR ceilings as low as 1500 to 
2500 feet above ground level...with localized IFR ceilings over the lower Eastern 
Shore...will prevail this afternoon. S winds generally 10 knots with 
a few gusts up to 20 knots. Thunderstorm activity should mostly be 
confined to inland Virginia and NC during afternoon heating. Atmosphere 
remains more stable near the coast due to earlier showers and 
cloud cover. Main impacts to aviation operations will be locally 
heavy rainfall (mvfr/IFR visibilities possible) and gusty winds. 
Thunderstorm coverage will diminish with the loss of daytime 
heating...but expect scattered showers to continue tonight. 


Front will cross the region tonight...clearing the coast early 
Friday morning. Winds will increase from the northwest Post frontal Friday 
morning and Friday afternoon. A few lingering showers will be 
possible...mainly along the coast Friday morning. Otherwise...VFR 
conds Friday. High pressure will then build into the region over the 
weekend. 


&& 


Marine... 
latest observation reflect general S-SW flow across the waters this 
evening. Winds have begun to diminish as expected in the Bay and 
sound...and have dropped Small Craft Advisory overnight with lull in Small Craft Advisory conditions 
still expected. Scas now have been hoisted after 14z/Friday with 
moderate cold air advection (15-25kt with gusts to 30 kt). 


Good model agreement west/ developmnt/location of low pressure off 
New Jersey/southern new eng coast Friday night into Sat. The low will be slow to lift to 
the NE sun into Monday...resulting in only gradual improvement (sca per 
wavewatch potentially to linger over the northern ocn waters into late sat). 
As per policy will avoid "double headline" issuance, but additional 
Small Craft Advisory flags will be necessary in the ches Bay and southern coastal 
waters after current headlines expire. Period of Small Craft Advisory will be for late 
Friday morning/afternoon through early Saturday. Conditions become sub-Small Craft Advisory 
with winds diminishing at or below 15kt Sunday through tuesdya as high 
pressure builds across the waters late in the Holiday weekend. 


&& 


Akq watches/warnings/advisories... 
Maryland...none. 
NC...none. 
Virginia...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 10 am Friday to midnight EDT Friday 
night for anz635-636-638. 
Small Craft Advisory from 10 am Friday to 6 PM EDT Saturday 
for anz630>634. 
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for anz650-652- 
654-656-658. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...mas 
near term...mas/mam 
short term...mas 
long term...mam 
aviation...Sam 
marine...mam