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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Friday
• 
• High: 72 °
• Low: 55 °
• Chance of Rain

• Saturday
• 
• High: 73 °
• Low: 55 °
• Clear

• Sunday
• 
• High: 72 °
• Low: 57 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Monday
• 
• High: 75 °
• Low: 63 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 66 °
• Chance of Rain

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia 
153 PM EDT Friday may 24 2013 


Synopsis... 
cold front will push offshore this morning...bringing below normal 
temperatures to the region today. High pressure will build over 
the Ohio Valley today...building into the region this weekend. 
Cool and dry conditions will continue through early next week. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
per latest msas surface analysis...cold front has located just offshore 
with strong height rises (+4-6mb) over central and western Virginia. Scattered 
light to moderate showers...aided by digging upper level 
trough...will continue to spread eastward this morning into the 
afternoon. Stable...Post frontal atmosphere will inhibit any 
chance of thunder. Residual moisture (precip waters ~1.25 inches 
generally east of Interstate 95) and the digging trough (uvm) will 
maintain showers all the way to the coast. Thus...have increased 
probability of precipitation to scattered through middle afternoon. Trough axis will Orient 
along the coast late afternoon...effectively ending precipitation 
chances. Cloud cover will remain anchored over the local area 
through at least middle afternoon...before clearing west to east late 
afternoon. Current temperatures are generally in the low 60s inland to 
low 70s along the coast. Due to height falls and cloud 
cover/showers...expect temperatures to increase only into the middle/upper 
60s inland and upper 60s/low 70s along the coast and over NE NC. 
This is about 8 to 12 degrees below normal (-1 Standard dev). Northwest 
winds will also increase this afternoon to 15 to 20 miles per hour with 
occasional gusts of 30 miles per hour...stronger near the coast. 


Light northwest winds and clear mostly clear skies inland...will result 
in temperatures falling into the low/middle 40s. Warming water temperatures and 
cloud cover will keep temperatures along the coast in the upper 40s/low 
50s. 


&& 


Short term /Saturday through Sunday/... 
surface hi pressure slowly builds in from the west over the weekend as nwrly 
cold air advection flow continues. Continued cooler temperatures (highs in the low to middle 
70s and lows in the middle 40s to lower 50s). This is almost 10 degrees 
below normal for late may. 


&& 


Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/... 
have gone close to a European model (ecmwf)/hpc(wpc) blend with this period, which 
yields only minor changes to medium range forecast. GFS has started 
to catch on to ecmwf's slower solution with respect to progress of closed upper 
level low over the northeast and Atlantic Canada. This slower 
solution allows for a slow warmup through the period. It will also 
allow for continued northwest flow across the southern middle-Atlantic Sunday 
and Monday. Low (slight chance) probability of precipitation remain in place for Memorial 
Day afternoon/evening and again on Tuesday as a weak disturbance/middle 
level trough drops across the region while a warm front lifts north 
across the Missouri/lower Ohio valleys. 


By midweek, the front shunts north of the area. Middle-upper level 
ridging rebuilds across the eastern half of the Continental U.S. As surface high 
slides off the middle-Atlantic coast. Resultant Bermuda 
high/"summerlike" setup will allow for increasing temperatures (and 
humidity values) for the middle to latter part of next week. Rainfall 
opportunities during this period will primarily be diurnally driven, 
with little more than partly cloudy and increasingly muggy 
conditions by night. 


&& 


Aviation /18z Friday through Wednesday/... 
potent middle/upper level trough has led to widespread rain showers across the area 
over the past few hours. Winds have shifted to the north-northwest at all sites 
as of 1730z. Improving sky conditions at kric with ceilings lifting 
above 3 k feet...but farther east can expect MVFR ceilings and/or visibilities/pockets 
of IFR through 20z with rain showers and gusty north/northwest winds gusting to 20 to 30 
knots through 00z. Windspeeds subside tonight...although remain gusty to 20 
knots or so closer to the coast. VFR/dry conditions on Sat...but all 
sites can expect gusty northwest flow..to 20-25 knots (25-30 knots at ksby). 
Generally sky clear with lighter winds Sat night-sun. 


Generally dry/VFR through Monday with increasing moisture later Monday- 
Tuesday as a warm front begins to affect the area. This would be next 
chance for more significant ceiling/visibility restrictions. 


&& 


Marine... 
conds generally below Small Craft Advisory at this time. Winds starting off west-southwest early/middle morning prior 
to cold frontal passage later this morning. Watching surface pressure rises (and 
associated gusty winds to about 25 kt) from western New York to Ohio River vly) and 
expected that to arrive west/ the cold frontal passage after 12-15z/24. Windshift 
to north-northwest and increases in spds (due to MDT low level caa) to solid scas (20-30 
kt). Occasional gusts to/above gale (35kt) possible on the ocn...will hold off 
on any Gale Warning for now though as probability remains low. These conds to 
last through Sat as coastal low pressure (offshr) is slo to develop before 
moving NE across eastern new eng on sun. GFS/European model (ecmwf) remain in overall 
agreement over development and location of that storm off New Jersey/southern new eng 
tonight into Sat. Slo/gradual improvement (lastly over the northern ocn wtrs) 
by 2nd part of the weekend. 


Will start all headlines (scas) west/ new package...and continue through 
Sat afternoon/early Sat night. 


&& 


Akq watches/warnings/advisories... 
Maryland...none. 
NC...none. 
Virginia...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for anz633- 
635>638. 
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Saturday night for 
anz630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...Sam 
near term...Sam 
short term...mas 
long term...mam 
aviation...lkb 
marine...alb