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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 79 °
• Low: 70 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Thursday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 68 °
• T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 55 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Saturday
• 
• High: 75 °
• Low: 63 °
• Clear

• Sunday
• 
• High: 75 °
• Low: 64 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 
706 PM EDT Tuesday may 21 2013 


Synopsis... 
high pressure will continue offshore through Wednesday. A cold front 
will approach the area Thursday and cross the region Friday. High 
pressure will follow the front for the upcoming weekend. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/... 
as of 705 PM Tuesday...as has been the trend the past couple of 
nights...convection is rapidly diminishing with loss of heating. 
Have lowered probability of precipitation a bit and may be able to lower even more on next 
update. Some storms are likely to linger near the Gulf Stream but 
should remain well offshore. Another warm/muggy night upcoming 
given dew points in the low to middle 60s and light south flow as lows 
again should be in the 65 to 70 degree range. Patchy fog may develop 
as temperatures lower to near dew points but light wind should prevent 
widespread fog. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through 6 PM Wednesday/... 
western extension of the subtropical ridge will build over eastern 
NC on Wednesday so should be less convective coverage than today. 
However isolated/scattered showers/thunderstorms will be possible especially on 
the seabreeze boundary during the afternoon. Less clouds/precipitation will 
give a boost to widespread high temperatures in the middle 80s inland/around 
80 at the coast. 


&& 


Long term /Wednesday night through Tuesday/... 
as of 245 PM Tuesday...warm/moist southerly flow will continue through 
Thursday as eastern NC remains located between ridge offshore and a broad 
trough over the midwestern states. Moisture will increase Wednesday night 
into Thursday as weak shortwave energy approaches from the SW with good 
model agreement. Increased probability of precipitation slightly for Thursday with good lift and 
precipitable waters  approaching 1.75 inches. The main threat Thursday will be locally 
heavy rainfall with minor flooding possible. The upper trough will 
drag a cold front through eastern NC Friday. Precipitation chances will taper 
off from west to east Thursday night into Friday. Temperatures will be near climatology 
Thursday and Friday with temperatures in the low 80s inland to middle 70s obx. 
Return to dry conditions Friday night with the front off the 
coast...winds shifting northwest then north and weak cold air advection initiating across the 
region. 


The upper trough will dig south through NC/Virginia Friday night with high 
pressure building over the region from the north through Sat. Weak 
cold air advection will persist Sat and sun with broad upper troughing aloft and 
weak ridging at the surface...yielding NE surface flow over the area 
with temperatures in the low 70s along the coast to middle/upper 70s 
inland...below climatology for late may. Some inland areas could see 
overnight lows in the upper 40s Friday night/Sat am. Shortwave energy 
will rotate east-southeast around the base of the upper trough Monday and interact 
with a weak backdoor front to produce some showers across the 
region Monday and Tuesday. Will continue slight chance probability of precipitation Monday through 
Tuesday. Temperatures will slowly warm Monday and Tuesday as thickness values and 
temperatures aloft increase. 


&& 


Aviation /00z Wednesday through Sunday/... 
short term /through 18z Wednesday/... 
as of 705 PM...current VFR at all taf sites. Likely to see MVFR 
ceilings redevelop in the moist boundary layer late tonight and could be 
brief IFR ceilings in the predawn hours. Low clouds burn off shortly 
after sunrise with VFR expected through midday Wednesday. 


Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/... 
as of 245 PM Tuesday...periods of sub-VFR conditions expected Wednesday night 
into Thursday night as moisture increases ahead of approaching trough and 
frontal boundary. Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to develop Thursday and 
Thursday night. Predominate VFR conditions should return Friday and continue 
through sun. 


&& 


Marine... 
short term /through Wednesday/... 
as of 705 PM Tuesday...a pretty much steady-state marine forecast 
with south-southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with some 15 to 20 knots winds 
during times of greater mixing in the later afternoon and evening 
hours. Seas remain 3 to 5 feet north and 2 to 4 feet south. 


Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/... 
as of 245 PM Tuesday...SW gradient will persist over the waters Wednesday 
night through Thursday night between high pressure offshore and a trough 
approaching from the west. Winds will range 10-20 knots with seas 
mostly 3-5 feet. The gradient pinches slightly tighter Thursday afternoon 
and Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible for seas of 6-7 feet for the central 
and northern waters...as well as gusts to 25kt. Small Craft Advisory conditions will 
likely persist Thursday into Friday as the cold front moves through waters 
Friday. Winds become north/northwest Friday evening behind the front and continue 
through Sat. 


&& 


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories... 
NC...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...btc/rf 
near term...ctc/btc 
short term...btc 
long term...cqd 
aviation...ctc/btc/cqd 
marine...ctc/btc/cqd