Nags Head, North Carolina Weather Conditions

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Current Conditions

  • 78°
  • Clear
  • Wind: Variable 5 mph
  • Humidity: 62%
  • Visibility: 10.0 miles
  • Dew Point: 64°
  • Pressure: 29.82 in. -

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Next 12 Hours

5  am
8  am
11  am
2  pm
5  pm
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Chance of a Thunderstorm
Chance of T-storms
Chance of a Thunderstorm
Chance of T-storms
77°
79°
79°
79°
79°
Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

  • Tuesday
  • Chance of a Thunderstorm
  • High: 81 °
  • Low: 72 °
  • Chance of a Thunderstorm
  • Wednesday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 82 °
  • Low: 72 °
  • Partly Cloudy
  • Thursday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 82 °
  • Low: 73 °
  • Partly Cloudy
  • Friday
  • Chance of a Thunderstorm
  • High: 81 °
  • Low: 73 °
  • Chance of T-Storms
  • Saturday
  • Chance of a Thunderstorm
  • High: 84 °
  • Low: 73 °
  • Chance of T-Storms

Forecast for Nags Head, North Carolina

Updated: 5:00 AM EDT on July 29, 2014

  • Tuesday

    Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and a chance of rain in the afternoon. High of 81F. Winds from the NNE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

  • Tuesday Night

    Partly cloudy with a chance of rain. Low of 72F. Winds from the NNE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

  • Wednesday

    Clear in the morning, then partly cloudy. High of 82F. Winds from the NE at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Wednesday Night

    Partly cloudy in the evening, then clear. Low of 72F. Winds from the SSE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Thursday

    Partly cloudy. High of 82F. Winds from the East at 5 to 15 mph.

  • Thursday Night

    Mostly cloudy in the evening, then overcast. Low of 73F. Winds from the ESE at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Friday

    Overcast with a chance of a thunderstorm and rain in the morning, then partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and rain. High of 81F. Winds from the ENE at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

  • Friday Night

    Overcast in the evening, then partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and rain. Low of 73F. Winds from the ESE at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40% with rainfall amounts near 0.2 in. possible.

  • Saturday

    Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and rain. High of 84F. Winds from the East at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60% with rainfall amounts near 0.2 in. possible.

  • Saturday Night

    Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. Low of 73F. Winds from the SSW at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70% with rainfall amounts near 0.5 in. possible.

  • Sunday

    Mostly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. High of 84F. Breezy. Winds from the SSW at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50%.

  • Sunday Night

    Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. Low of 75F. Winds from the SSW at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50%.

  • Monday

    Partly cloudy. High of 84F. Winds from the SSW at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Monday Night

    Clear with a chance of a thunderstorm. Low of 73F. Winds from the SW at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50%.

  • Tuesday

    Clear with a chance of a thunderstorm. High of 84F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

  • Tuesday Night

    Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. Low of 75F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

  • Wednesday

    Partly cloudy. High of 82F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Wednesday Night

    Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. Low of 75F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

  • Thursday

    Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. High of 82F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

  • Thursday Night

    Clear with a chance of a thunderstorm. Low of 73F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

  • Friday

    Clear with a chance of a thunderstorm. High of 82F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

  • Friday Night

    Clear with a chance of a thunderstorm. Fog overnight. Low of 73F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

Personal Weather Stations

Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]

Location: Buxton, NC

Updated: 3:29 AM EST

Temperature: 76.5 °F Dew Point: 68 °F Humidity: 75% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.83 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 78 °F Graphs

Location: The Peninsula, Manteo, NC

Updated: 4:33 AM EDT

Temperature: 74.4 °F Dew Point: 66 °F Humidity: 76% Wind: NNE at 6.0 mph Pressure: 29.83 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 75 °F Graphs

MSN Maps of:

Temp: Dew Point: Humidity Wind Pressure Hr Precip -

NWS Forecaster Discussion




Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 
406 am EDT Tuesday Jul 29 2014 


Synopsis... 
high pressure will build over the area through Thursday...as a 
frontal boundary becomes stationary over the offshore waters. The 
front will drift back toward the coast late week into the weekend 
with unsettled weather pattern returning. 


&& 


Near term /through today/... 
as of 3 am Tuesday...latest surface analysis shows 972mb low pressure 
centered over central Maine...with attendant cold front extending 
into the southeast US...continuing to work its way through our southern 
zones. A weak area of low pressure will develop along the stalled 
front offshore today. Deep upper trough will continue to build 
along the eastern US today...resulting in a very pleasant day 
across enc with temperatures below climatology...and dewpoints in the upper 50s 
to middle 60s. Low level thickness values and north/NE flow support highs 
in the upper 70s to middle 80s. Will maintain SC probability of precipitation this afternoon 
and evening...for mainly areas along and east of Highway 17...though 
think coverage will be fairly isolated with most areas remaining 
dry. 


&& 


Short term /tonight/... 
as of 3 am Tuesday...overall quiet night expected. Will continue SC 
-ra along the coast as weak area of low pressure along stalled 
front lifts NE. Below normal temperatures expected overnight...with good 
radiational conditions...mostly clear skies and light NE flow. 
Lows in the lower 60s to around 70. Areas of patchy fog will be 
possible. 


&& 


Long term /Wednesday through Monday/... 
as of 405 am Tuesday...the period will begin dry with below normal 
temperatures through middle week...then a return to a wet and unsettled 
period for late this week through the weekend and possibly into 
early next week. 


Will continue previous forecast thinking and keep probability of precipitation out of forecast 
Wednesday and Thursday...though as is typically the case in the Summer... 
cannot completely rule out an isolated shower forming during peak 
heating each afternoon but with a relatively dry air mass in 
place...precipitable waters  below 1.25" (less than 25th percentile for this time 
of year)...not enough coverage for even an isolated mention in grids. 
Maximum t's will be comfortable with middle 80s Wednesday to middle/upper 80s on 
Thursday. Lows will generally be in the 60s overnight as dewpoints 
continue on the low side. 


Am getting a bit concerned for Friday and beyond...as the area will 
be in favorable location for bouts of rain showers...heavy at 
times. Under normal circumstances it would not be an issue... 
though with many locations in east NC receiving lots of rainfall this 
month... flooding may become a real concern. 


By Thursday night...anomalous long wave trough across eastern Continental U.S. 
Begins to de-amplify...while offshore stalled boundary begins to 
migrate westward towards the coast as an inverted trough sets up 
along the southeastern Continental U.S. Seaboard. Some timing differences 
amongst model suite on exactly when this happens...with European model (ecmwf) 
wetter earlier in the period...as early as Thursday night...and GFS 
holding off until Friday. Have bumped up probability of precipitation to chance as early as 
late Thursday night to account for the uncertainty. Better chances for 
rain showers on Friday as decent isentropic lift develops and 
sharpening inverted surface trough takes place along the coast. Have 
capped probability of precipitation at 50 percent Friday due to coverage uncertainty... 
though think that rain showers will be quite numerous by 
afternoon. Decent upper support will be in place as well with region 
in cyclonic flow aloft as trough axis will be across the Ohio 
Valley/Great Lakes region. 


Even better chances for rain and thunderstorms by the weekend as 
models in remarkably good agreement on synoptic pattern. The area 
will be under favorable right entrance region of mentioned 
trough... and with layer streamlines converging on east NC from the 
Caribbean...set up will favor a heavy rain threat. Precipitable waters  will rise 
to above 2 inches and layer mix ratios above 16 g/kg. May even be 
a marginal severe threat as deep layer shear of ~20-25 knots will be 
in place...though amount of cloud cover will dictate amount of 
destabilization during the daytime hours. Have increase probability of precipitation to likely 
to start the weekend and kept high probability of precipitation going through sun. Naefs 
ensemble mean and gefs reforecast precipitation data both suggest quite a 
wet period shaping up. Will have to monitor for potential areal 
and even river flooding should this pattern come to fruition. 


&& 


Aviation /07z Tuesday through Saturday/... 
short term /through tonight/... 
as of 3 am Tuesday...cold front now through all terminals...and expect 
pred VFR through the period. Scattered cumulus expected today with light 
north/NE flow. 


Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/... 
as of 405 am Tuesday...high pressure building in from the west will bring 
good flying weather for the middle of the week with VFR conditions 
dominating. Cannot rule out patchy early morning fog at the 
terminals each morning but with an unseasonably dry airmass in 
place conditions are not conducive for widespread fog development. 
A trough of low pressure moves back into the region Friday through 
the weekend putting east NC in favorable regime for widespread 
showers and thunderstorms. Conditions will likely fall to MVFR or 
lower at times. 


&& 


Marine... 
short term /through tonight/... 
as of 3 am Tuesday...latest observation show north/northwest winds 5-15kt and seas 2-4ft. 
Cold front will continue to move through the southern waters early 
this morning...then stall offshore today with a weak area of low 
pressure developing along it. Winds will continue to gradually veer 
this morning becoming predominately north/NE 10-15kt with seas 2-4ft 
throughout. 


Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/... 
as of 405 am Tuesday...high pressure builds in from the west through the 
middle of the week with a stalled frontal boundary well east of the 
waters. Winds will predominately be NE to east at or below 15 knots Wednesday and Thursday with 
seas around 2 to 4 feet. The front retreats westward as a coastal 
trough as early as late Thursday night...with winds switching to 
southeast... then south and eventually SW Friday through the 
weekend. Conditions however will remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds. 


&& 


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories... 
NC...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...cqd 
near term...cqd 
short term...cqd 
long term...tl 
aviation...cqd/tl 
marine...cqd/tl 




















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