Nags Head, North Carolina Weather Conditions

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Current Conditions

  • 43°
  • Light Rain
  • Wind: NNE 9 mph
  • Humidity: 80%
  • Visibility: 9.0 miles
  • Dew Point: 37°
  • Pressure: 30.24 in. -
  • Heat Index: 38

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Next 12 Hours

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1  am
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Partly Cloudy
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Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

  • Saturday
  • Chance of Rain
  • High: 48 °
  • Low: 41 °
  • Chance of Rain
  • Sunday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 52 °
  • Low: 46 °
  • Partly Cloudy
  • Monday
  • Rain
  • High: 64 °
  • Low: 50 °
  • Rain
  • Tuesday
  • Chance of a Thunderstorm
  • High: 63 °
  • Low: 52 °
  • Chance of T-Storms
  • Wednesday
  • Rain
  • High: 66 °
  • Low: 41 °
  • Rain

Forecast for Nags Head, North Carolina

Updated: 10:00 AM EST on December 20, 2014

  • Saturday

    Overcast with a chance of rain. High of 48F. Winds from the NNE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

  • Saturday Night

    Partly cloudy with a chance of rain. Low of 41F. Winds from the NNE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

  • Sunday

    Partly cloudy. High of 52F. Breezy. Winds from the NNE at 15 to 20 mph.

  • Sunday Night

    Mostly cloudy with rain after midnight. Low of 46F. Breezy. Winds from the NE at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

  • Monday

    Overcast with rain. Fog early. High of 64F. Breezy. Winds from the ESE at 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 80% with rainfall amounts near 0.3 in. possible.

  • Monday Night

    Partly cloudy with a chance of rain. Fog overnight. Low of 50F. Winds from the SSW at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Tuesday

    Mostly cloudy in the morning, then overcast with a chance of a thunderstorm and rain. Fog early. High of 63F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

  • Tuesday Night

    Overcast with a chance of rain after midnight. Fog overnight. Low of 52F. Breezy. Winds from the SSE at 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 60% with rainfall amounts near 0.5 in. possible.

  • Wednesday

    Overcast with a chance of rain, then rain in the afternoon. Fog early. High of 66F. Windy. Winds from the South at 30 to 40 mph. Chance of rain 80% with rainfall amounts near 1.1 in. possible.

  • Wednesday Night

    Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Fog overnight. Low of 41F. Windy. Winds from the WSW at 30 to 35 mph. Chance of rain 70% with rainfall amounts near 0.4 in. possible.

  • Thursday

    Clear. High of 54F. Windy. Winds from the West at 20 to 30 mph.

  • Thursday Night

    Clear. Low of 36F. Breezy. Winds from the West at 15 to 25 mph.

  • Friday

    Clear. High of 57F. Breezy. Winds from the SW at 10 to 25 mph.

  • Friday Night

    Clear. Fog overnight. Low of 41F. Windy. Winds from the WSW at 20 to 30 mph.

  • Saturday

    Mostly cloudy. Fog early. High of 57F. Breezy. Winds from the WNW at 10 to 20 mph.

  • Saturday Night

    Partly cloudy. Fog overnight. Low of 36F. Winds from the WNW at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Sunday

    Clear. High of 50F. Breezy. Winds from the WNW at 15 to 20 mph.

  • Sunday Night

    Clear. Low of 32F. Breezy. Winds from the NW at 10 to 20 mph.

  • Monday

    Clear. Fog early. High of 48F. Breezy. Winds from the NW at 10 to 20 mph.

  • Monday Night

    Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. Fog overnight. Low of 36F. Winds from the NW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50% with rainfall amounts near 0.4 in. possible.

  • Tuesday

    Mostly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. Fog early. High of 50F. Winds from the NW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60% with rainfall amounts near 0.2 in. possible.

  • Tuesday Night

    Clear. Fog overnight. Low of 36F. Winds from the NNW at 10 to 15 mph.

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NWS Forecaster Discussion




Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 
1227 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2014 


Synopsis... 
low pressure off the southeast coast today will drift slowly east 
through Sunday. Another low will develop near the coast Sunday 
night into Monday then lift to the northeast Monday night. A 
strong cold front will approach from the west Tuesday night and 
cross the region Wednesday. High pressure builds to the south of 
the area through the end of the week. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
have removed the mention of mixed precipitation for the afternoon update 
but a few sleet pellets still possible through midday with surface dew 
points hovering in the low to middle 30s over western and northern 
portions of the forecast area. Have also bumped up probability of precipitation into 
likely range for much of the area south of 264 given the radar 
coverage and surface reports. Although increasing pops, have emphasized 
the light intensity of rain this afternoon. 


Highs will struggle into the middle and upper 40s this afternoon with 
residual near surface cold pool and thickening cloud cover. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Sunday/... 
as of 235 am Sat...bulk of moisture will be offshore by early 
evening with just small pop southern CST early then dry. Will continue to 
have good deal of clouds over the region overnight...espcly CST. 
Shld see enough breaks for lows mainly 30 to 35 inland with upper 
30s to around 40 beaches. 


&& 


Long term /Sunday through Saturday/... 
as of 410 am Saturday...northeast flow will persist Sunday with 
increasing clouds throughout the day due to southwest flow aloft 
transporting moisture rich airmass into the region. A weak low 
pressure will develop off the Florida/GA/SC coast Sunday night that 
will move northeast along the Carolina coast through Monday. 
Guidance continues to indicate the low is ill-defined and weak 
with consensus of around 1015 mb low off Cape Hatteras by Monday 
evening. Minor tweaks to ongoing forecast probability of precipitation/temperatures Sunday into 
Monday...keeping Sunday dry and cooler then increasing probability of precipitation Sunday 
night to likelies late with mild temperatures Monday. Medium range temperature 
guidance has had a cool bias as of late so hedged closer to GFS 
MOS which matches well with low level thicknesses increasing near 
1370 meters for southeastern zones...though there will likely be a 
sharp temperature gradient from the coast to the coastal plains. 


A deep longwave trough will amplify across the central Continental U.S. On 
Tuesday with deep southerly flow increasing across the eastern 
Continental U.S.. could see some showers on Tuesday as moisture and dynamics 
increase ahead of the system...though best chances for widespread 
organized rain come in Tuesday night into early Wednesday. The 
main low becomes vertically stacked over the upper Midwest/Great 
Lakes region Tuesday night/Wednesday...and models developing a 
secondary low along the cold front and ahead of the upper 
trough...moving through the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic. Area will 
be in vicinity of approaching digging jet streak...and large scale 
Omega/frontogensis will sweep through Tuesday night into early 
Wednesday. Will continue mention of thunderstorms Tuesday night into 
Wednesday morning...mainly along and east of Highway 17 as expecting to 
see a high shear/Low Cape setup as trough becomes negatively 
tilted...with models showing 0-6km shear 40-50kt and increased low 
level helicity values due to backed south-southeast surface flow. Temperatures will be 
mild Tuesday night with values holding in the 50s and even 
increasing overnight to the 60s. 


Precipitation chances decrease significantly Wednesday afternoon as the 
front wings through and deep layer west-southwesterly flow begins 
to dry the column. Gusty winds expected ahead of and behind the 
front Wednesday with strong upper jet over the area. Wednesday 
looks to be the warmest day as low level thicknesses build into 
the 1380-1390 meter range...translating to highs in the upper 60s. 


For Wednesday night through Friday...expect high pressure to build 
across the region from the southwest yielding dry and cooler 
conditions. Temperatures will be near climatology behind the front for Christmas 
day as upper trough moves off the East Coast. Upper ridging builds 
over the region Thursday. Low level thickness values support highs 
in the low/middle 50s Thursday...moderating into the upper 50s Friday. 


&& 


Aviation /18z Saturday through Wednesday/... 
short term /through Sunday afternoon/... 
as of 1220 PM Saturday...a wave of low pressure in the middle-levels 
will cross the region through the afternoon while surface high 
pressure stays in place. This will yield rain through the 
afternoon and light north winds. Ceilings should hover in the 
MVFR/VFR range through the afternoon...but can not rule out decks 
lowering to IFR briefly. Rain will diminish this evening. With 
some moisture trapped in the lowest 6kft overnight...can not rule 
out patchy stratus. However...feel ceilings will mainly be in the 
mid-levels/VFR criteria with continued light north winds. 


Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/... 
as of 330 am Sat...VFR conditions expected Sunday. Sub-VFR conditions 
will be possible late Sunday night into Monday as a weak low/coastal 
trough moves along the Carolina coast. Sub-VFR ceilings could linger 
Monday night into early Tuesday as the boundary layer remains very 
moist with weak surface flow. A strong low pressure system 
develops in the deep south and moves northeast along the 
Appalachian Mountains...dragging a strong cold front through the 
region Wednesday into Wednesday night...with the potential for rain 
and reduced ceilings/visibilities through Wednesday afternoon. 


&& 


Marine... 
short term /through tonight/... 
pressure gradient north of the surface low off the southeast coast will 
maintain north/NE winds 10-15 knots over the marine area this afternoon. 
With the low only slowly drifting east tonight winds will continue at 10 
to 15 kts...highest south. Seas will continue mainly in the 2 to 3 
foot range...however a few 4 footer poss over the outer waters. 


Long term /Sunday through Wed/... 
as of 415 am Saturday...a weak low pressure system is expected to 
move along the southeastern U.S. Coast Sunday night into Monday. 
NE winds will back east then south along the coast on Monday. Could 
see brief period of Small Craft Advisory ahead of the weak coastal low as NE/east 
gradient is pinched as the low rides up the coast. Weak low will 
continue to lift North/East of the area Monday night and Tuesday...and 
expect light/variable winds with seas 2-4 feet. Strong cold front 
approaches Tuesday night and crosses the waters Wednesday. Winds 
will become south and increase rapidly late Tuesday night and 
Wednesday before becoming westerly Wednesday evening. Seas respond 
by building and peaking at 6-10 feet Wednesday...then slowly 
subsiding Wednesday night into Thursday. 00z European model (ecmwf) suggests winds 
could gust near gale force range for portions of the central 
waters Wednesday into Thursday though the European model (ecmwf) remains 5-10 knots 
stronger than other guidance...thus will use a blend for winds middle 
week. Gusty west winds will diminish late week. 


&& 


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories... 
NC...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...rf 
near term...btc/rf 
short term...rf 
long term...dag/tl 
aviation...rf/dag/Lep 
marine...btc/rf/dag 



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