Updated: 10:00 AM EST on December 20, 2014
Overcast with a chance of rain. High of 48F. Winds from the NNE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
Partly cloudy with a chance of rain. Low of 41F. Winds from the NNE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20%.
Partly cloudy. High of 52F. Breezy. Winds from the NNE at 15 to 20 mph.
Mostly cloudy with rain after midnight. Low of 46F. Breezy. Winds from the NE at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
Overcast with rain. Fog early. High of 64F. Breezy. Winds from the ESE at 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 80% with rainfall amounts near 0.3 in. possible.
Partly cloudy with a chance of rain. Fog overnight. Low of 50F. Winds from the SSW at 10 to 15 mph.
Mostly cloudy in the morning, then overcast with a chance of a thunderstorm and rain. Fog early. High of 63F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
Overcast with a chance of rain after midnight. Fog overnight. Low of 52F. Breezy. Winds from the SSE at 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 60% with rainfall amounts near 0.5 in. possible.
Overcast with a chance of rain, then rain in the afternoon. Fog early. High of 66F. Windy. Winds from the South at 30 to 40 mph. Chance of rain 80% with rainfall amounts near 1.1 in. possible.
Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Fog overnight. Low of 41F. Windy. Winds from the WSW at 30 to 35 mph. Chance of rain 70% with rainfall amounts near 0.4 in. possible.
Clear. High of 54F. Windy. Winds from the West at 20 to 30 mph.
Clear. Low of 36F. Breezy. Winds from the West at 15 to 25 mph.
Clear. High of 57F. Breezy. Winds from the SW at 10 to 25 mph.
Clear. Fog overnight. Low of 41F. Windy. Winds from the WSW at 20 to 30 mph.
Mostly cloudy. Fog early. High of 57F. Breezy. Winds from the WNW at 10 to 20 mph.
Partly cloudy. Fog overnight. Low of 36F. Winds from the WNW at 10 to 15 mph.
Clear. High of 50F. Breezy. Winds from the WNW at 15 to 20 mph.
Clear. Low of 32F. Breezy. Winds from the NW at 10 to 20 mph.
Clear. Fog early. High of 48F. Breezy. Winds from the NW at 10 to 20 mph.
Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. Fog overnight. Low of 36F. Winds from the NW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50% with rainfall amounts near 0.4 in. possible.
Mostly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. Fog early. High of 50F. Winds from the NW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60% with rainfall amounts near 0.2 in. possible.
Clear. Fog overnight. Low of 36F. Winds from the NNW at 10 to 15 mph.
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Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1227 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2014 Synopsis... low pressure off the southeast coast today will drift slowly east through Sunday. Another low will develop near the coast Sunday night into Monday then lift to the northeast Monday night. A strong cold front will approach from the west Tuesday night and cross the region Wednesday. High pressure builds to the south of the area through the end of the week. && Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... have removed the mention of mixed precipitation for the afternoon update but a few sleet pellets still possible through midday with surface dew points hovering in the low to middle 30s over western and northern portions of the forecast area. Have also bumped up probability of precipitation into likely range for much of the area south of 264 given the radar coverage and surface reports. Although increasing pops, have emphasized the light intensity of rain this afternoon. Highs will struggle into the middle and upper 40s this afternoon with residual near surface cold pool and thickening cloud cover. && Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Sunday/... as of 235 am Sat...bulk of moisture will be offshore by early evening with just small pop southern CST early then dry. Will continue to have good deal of clouds over the region overnight...espcly CST. Shld see enough breaks for lows mainly 30 to 35 inland with upper 30s to around 40 beaches. && Long term /Sunday through Saturday/... as of 410 am Saturday...northeast flow will persist Sunday with increasing clouds throughout the day due to southwest flow aloft transporting moisture rich airmass into the region. A weak low pressure will develop off the Florida/GA/SC coast Sunday night that will move northeast along the Carolina coast through Monday. Guidance continues to indicate the low is ill-defined and weak with consensus of around 1015 mb low off Cape Hatteras by Monday evening. Minor tweaks to ongoing forecast probability of precipitation/temperatures Sunday into Monday...keeping Sunday dry and cooler then increasing probability of precipitation Sunday night to likelies late with mild temperatures Monday. Medium range temperature guidance has had a cool bias as of late so hedged closer to GFS MOS which matches well with low level thicknesses increasing near 1370 meters for southeastern zones...though there will likely be a sharp temperature gradient from the coast to the coastal plains. A deep longwave trough will amplify across the central Continental U.S. On Tuesday with deep southerly flow increasing across the eastern Continental U.S.. could see some showers on Tuesday as moisture and dynamics increase ahead of the system...though best chances for widespread organized rain come in Tuesday night into early Wednesday. The main low becomes vertically stacked over the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region Tuesday night/Wednesday...and models developing a secondary low along the cold front and ahead of the upper trough...moving through the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic. Area will be in vicinity of approaching digging jet streak...and large scale Omega/frontogensis will sweep through Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Will continue mention of thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning...mainly along and east of Highway 17 as expecting to see a high shear/Low Cape setup as trough becomes negatively tilted...with models showing 0-6km shear 40-50kt and increased low level helicity values due to backed south-southeast surface flow. Temperatures will be mild Tuesday night with values holding in the 50s and even increasing overnight to the 60s. Precipitation chances decrease significantly Wednesday afternoon as the front wings through and deep layer west-southwesterly flow begins to dry the column. Gusty winds expected ahead of and behind the front Wednesday with strong upper jet over the area. Wednesday looks to be the warmest day as low level thicknesses build into the 1380-1390 meter range...translating to highs in the upper 60s. For Wednesday night through Friday...expect high pressure to build across the region from the southwest yielding dry and cooler conditions. Temperatures will be near climatology behind the front for Christmas day as upper trough moves off the East Coast. Upper ridging builds over the region Thursday. Low level thickness values support highs in the low/middle 50s Thursday...moderating into the upper 50s Friday. && Aviation /18z Saturday through Wednesday/... short term /through Sunday afternoon/... as of 1220 PM Saturday...a wave of low pressure in the middle-levels will cross the region through the afternoon while surface high pressure stays in place. This will yield rain through the afternoon and light north winds. Ceilings should hover in the MVFR/VFR range through the afternoon...but can not rule out decks lowering to IFR briefly. Rain will diminish this evening. With some moisture trapped in the lowest 6kft overnight...can not rule out patchy stratus. However...feel ceilings will mainly be in the mid-levels/VFR criteria with continued light north winds. Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/... as of 330 am Sat...VFR conditions expected Sunday. Sub-VFR conditions will be possible late Sunday night into Monday as a weak low/coastal trough moves along the Carolina coast. Sub-VFR ceilings could linger Monday night into early Tuesday as the boundary layer remains very moist with weak surface flow. A strong low pressure system develops in the deep south and moves northeast along the Appalachian Mountains...dragging a strong cold front through the region Wednesday into Wednesday night...with the potential for rain and reduced ceilings/visibilities through Wednesday afternoon. && Marine... short term /through tonight/... pressure gradient north of the surface low off the southeast coast will maintain north/NE winds 10-15 knots over the marine area this afternoon. With the low only slowly drifting east tonight winds will continue at 10 to 15 kts...highest south. Seas will continue mainly in the 2 to 3 foot range...however a few 4 footer poss over the outer waters. Long term /Sunday through Wed/... as of 415 am Saturday...a weak low pressure system is expected to move along the southeastern U.S. Coast Sunday night into Monday. NE winds will back east then south along the coast on Monday. Could see brief period of Small Craft Advisory ahead of the weak coastal low as NE/east gradient is pinched as the low rides up the coast. Weak low will continue to lift North/East of the area Monday night and Tuesday...and expect light/variable winds with seas 2-4 feet. Strong cold front approaches Tuesday night and crosses the waters Wednesday. Winds will become south and increase rapidly late Tuesday night and Wednesday before becoming westerly Wednesday evening. Seas respond by building and peaking at 6-10 feet Wednesday...then slowly subsiding Wednesday night into Thursday. 00z European model (ecmwf) suggests winds could gust near gale force range for portions of the central waters Wednesday into Thursday though the European model (ecmwf) remains 5-10 knots stronger than other guidance...thus will use a blend for winds middle week. Gusty west winds will diminish late week. && Mhx watches/warnings/advisories... NC...none. Marine...none. && $$ Synopsis...rf near term...btc/rf short term...rf long term...dag/tl aviation...rf/dag/Lep marine...btc/rf/dag