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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Saturday
• 
• High: 77 °
• Low: 66 °
• T-Storms

• Sunday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 68 °
• T-Storms

• Monday
• 
• High: 79 °
• Low: 68 °
• T-Storms

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 66 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 66 °
• Chance of T-Storms

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia 
412 PM EDT Sat may 18 2013 


Synopsis... 
a weak front remains nearly stationary over southern Virginia and 
central West Virginia. This front is expected to lift to the north 
late Sunday and Monday. A ridge of high pressure off the southeast 
coast will prevail into the middle of the week. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Sunday morning/... 
or the afternoon...likely probability of precipitation are in effect throughout the County Warning Area for 
the rest of the afternoon through 00z. Thunderstorms across the far 
southern Virginia may produce locally heavy rainfall. Mainly showers 
are expected further north. 


A stationary boundary continues across the southern portion of our 
County Warning Area while a slow moving upper level trough reaches through Ohio and 
eastern Kentucky. A more significant upper level trough over the 
western states was forcing a weak ridge between the two features. 


The stationary boundary will meander across the area during the next 
24 hours with no appreciable movement. This will help to focus 
convection mainly over southern portions this evening. In the meantime 
widespread shower activity continued over the lower Eastern Shore 
and portions of eastern Virginia. 


Upper level support for overnight convection is weak and expect 
showers and thunderstorms over southern portions by early this 
evening. In the meantime...kept likely showers for the lower Eastern 
Shore and eastern portions of the Northern Neck where MOS probability of precipitation are 
consistently quite high. 


Low temperatures will be generally in the low to middle 60s with upper 
50s on the Maryland Eastern Shore. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Sunday morning through Tuesday/... 
wet weather will continue Sunday through Monday as the stalled front 
begins to lift northward. Also an upper level trough over the Ohio/Kentucky area 
will move across the middle Atlantic region Monday. Precipitation is expected to 
be most widespread over western portions of the area Sunday per 
model guidance where upper level support will be best. Probability of precipitation increase 
once again Monday mainly across southern portions. As the trough moves 
off to the east...precipitation decreases over western portions by Monday afternoon. 


High temperatures Sunday and Monday will be warmer...generally in 
the upper 70s to lower 80s with slightly cooler readings near the coast. 
Lows will range through the 60s. 


During the remainder of the short term...while the upper level 
trough moves off to the east...further upper level impulses are 
expected to impact the area. Precipitation diminishes by around midnight 
Monday night. Some redevelopment of thunderstorms is expected Tuesday afternoon 
mainly over southern Virginia/NE North Carolina. High temperatures Tuesday are 
forecast to reach into the middle to upper 80s at most locations. 


72 hour quantitative precipitation forecast totals forecast to range from 1 to 2 inches with 
local amounts to 3 inches possible across the Piedmont to around 
a half inch to an inch toward the coast. Some issues on area 
rivers are possible early this coming week. See Hydro section below. 
At this time...there are no plans for a Flood Watch but this will 
continue to be monitored. 


&& 


Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/... 
models similar over this time period with the timing of another trough 
deeping at 500 mb toward Friday and Saturday. This will usher a 
stronger cold front through the region Friday into Saturday. The 
front will have some showers and thunderstorms with it as it moves 
through. Before that a frontal boundary remains nearly stationary 
across the Great Lakes and New England. South of this area will have 
general south to southwest flow across the area. Could see an 
isolated afternoon thunderstorm. Any thunderstorms that form north 
along the boundary could push into the northern part of the area 
during the evenings. Temperatures will be at or above normal until 
the front passes. Then temperatures will drop back on Saturday to at 
or below normal. 


&& 


Aviation /20z Saturday through Thursday/... 
tricky aviation forecast this afternoon through Sunday. Showers 
from ric to sby were slowly pushing east and should make their way 
to phf around 19-20z. Even with the showers conditions at ric were 
MVFR as of 1730z and should remain MVFR with a brief period of IFR 
through 22z as periods of rain reduce visibilities to just below 3sm and 
the NE flow drops ceilings to just less than 1kft. At sby 
prevailing IFR conditions should hold off until around 06z when 
southeast winds increase and stratus moves in from the ocean. The showers 
near ric to ptb should reach phf shortly after 20z and MVFR 
conditions at pfh could become briefly IFR with a few heaver 
showers through 23z. Once the coverage in shower activity 
decreases with sunset MVFR conditions will prevail at phf. 


More showers were ongoing from near ecg west along the NC/Virginia 
border along another boundary. This area of showers may expand 
briefly but the bulk of the rain may stay west of orf and ecg this 
afternoon and evening. A brief period of showers may reach orf from 
21z-02z but shower activity should be very scattered as far east 
as orf and phf. Overall conditions at orf and phf should remain 
MVFR with a brief period of IFR possible in the showers. 


Guidance suggests ric will become IFR with stratus overnight along 
with sby and remain IFR through middle morning Sunday. Closer to the 
coast the remainder of the taf sites remain MVFR overnight. For 
Sunday expect much of the same with MVFR-VFR conditions over southeast Virginia 
and NE NC and MVFR-IFR conditions at ric and sby. 


&& 


Marine... 
difficult forecast initially to see if we get to small craft 
conditions on the Bay. All high res models would support a period of 
small craft winds into this evening. Seeing winds staying close but 
just under small craft at 19z. Expect that by 20z most sites will 
have small craft conditions. This wind increase seems to be 
associated with a weak low pressure moving along the boundary south 
of the area increasing the southeast winds. With continued east to 
southeast winds tonight will see seas increase to 5 feet along the 
northern coastal waters. Seas will drop back to under 5 feet on 
Sunday. Winds will also diminish and gradually become more southerly 
on Sunday and then southwest on Monday as a warm front moves slowly 
north through the waters. The warm front will slowly lift north from 
North Carolina tonight and Sunday and finally be north of the waters 
on Monday a weak upper low will move slowly east from the Midwest 
and eventually off the coast by Monday night. These features will 
continue showers and thunderstorms at times through Monday. 


&& 


Hydrology... 
rainfall over the Piedmont and ridges to the west are forecast to 
bring significant rises to area rivers by Monday and Tuesday. Some 
locations will likely experience action stage and may possibly 
have minor flooding. This will depend on which basins locally 
heavy rainfall sets up which is too early to determine. 


&& 


Equipment... 
currently the akq 88d radar is down. Technician on his way. Return 
to service will hopefully occur early this evening. 


&& 


Akq watches/warnings/advisories... 
Maryland...none. 
NC...none. 
Virginia...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for anz630>632- 
634-638. 
Small Craft Advisory until 6 am EDT Sunday for anz650-652-654. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...lkb/lsa 
near term...lsa 
short term...lsa 
long term...jab 
aviation...jao 
marine...jab 
hydrology... 
equipment...