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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Friday
• 
• High: 72 °
• Low: 46 °
• Chance of Rain

• Saturday
• 
• High: 73 °
• Low: 46 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 75 °
• Low: 50 °
• Clear

• Monday
• 
• High: 79 °
• Low: 59 °
• Clear

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 63 °
• Chance of T-Storms

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia 
357 PM EDT Friday may 24 2013 


Synopsis... 
cold front will continue to push offshore tonight as high pressure 
builds over the Ohio Valley. High pressure will continue to build 
into the middle Atlantic this weekend...resulting in dry and cool 
conditions. A warming trend will begin Memorial Day through next 
week. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Saturday morning/... 
latest water vapor imagery shows deep upper trough (500mb heights 
-2 Standard dev) digging over the eastern Continental U.S.. at the surface...cold front 
has pushed offshore with high pressure building over the Great 
Lakes region. Narrow line of showers will clear the coast the next 
few hours (before 5pm edt). Upper trough axis will locate along 
the coast early this evening...effectively bringing an end to the 
precipitation. Northwest winds 10 to 15 miles per hour with gusts up to 25 miles per hour (stronger 
near the coast) will subside late afternoon as skies clear west to 
east. Cold tonight as light winds and clearing skies allow for 
good radiational cooling. Temperatures forecast to fall into the low/middle 
40s. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Saturday morning through Monday night/... 
upper pattern during the short term will be characterized by a 
trough in both the west and east with ridging over the central 
Continental U.S.. upper closed low will develop off the middle Atlantic coast 
Sat...slowly lifting up the NE coast Sat-sun due to blocking over 
the western Atlantic. Confluence aloft will usher in cool surface high 
pressure over the weekend. The resultant deep layer northwesterly flow will 
result in dry...but cool conditions through the Memorial Day 
weekend. 850mb temperatures will fall as low as 2 Standard dev below normal 
this weekend...with temperatures generally upper 60s/low 70s Sat and low 
70s sun (-1 Standard dev). Temperatures will fall into the middle/upper 40s Sat 
night and upper 40s/low 50s Sun night. 


Meanwhile...stalled frontal boundary over the northern Gulf will begin 
to lift northward late Sunday and Monday...locating over the deep south 
Monday morning...extending nwwd into the plains. Upper ridge will 
finally progress eastward Monday as the upper low over southeast Canada lifts. As 
a result...a warming trend will commence Monday. As the ridge 
progresses eastward...a warm/moist airmass will interact with the 
boundary to produce showers and thunderstorms over the Midwest 
into the Ohio Valley Monday afternoon. Activity then expected to 
form into a mesoscale convective system. Mesoscale convective system will round the 
ridge...but will die out before reaching the mid-Atlantic. 
Boundary will continue to lift northward Monday night...with better 
chance for showers and thunderstorms in the extended period. 


&& 


Long term /Tuesday through Friday/... 
have again gone close to a European model (ecmwf)/hpc(wpc) blend for the midweek time 
frame. Have allowed for some rain showers/isolated T later Tuesday as warm front 
lifts north across the area, with best chances across areas north of 
fvx/ric/wal line. 


The front shunts north of the area for the middle to latter part of the 
week. Meanwhile, middle-upper level ridging rebuilds across the eastern 
half of the Continental U.S. As surface high slides off the middle-Atlantic coast. 
Resultant Bermuda high/"summerlike" setup will allow for increasing 
temperatures (and humidity values) for the middle to latter part of next week. 
Rainfall opportunities during this period will primarily be 
diurnally driven, with little more than partly cloudy and 
increasingly muggy conditions by night. 


&& 


Aviation /20z Friday through Wednesday/... 
potent middle/upper level trough has led to widespread rain showers across the area 
over the past few hours. Winds have shifted to the north-northwest at all sites 
as of 1730z. Improving sky conditions at kric with ceilings lifting 
above 3 k feet...but farther east can expect MVFR ceilings and/or visibilities/pockets 
of IFR through 20z with rain showers and gusty north/northwest winds gusting to 20 to 30 
knots through 00z. Windspeeds subside tonight...although remain gusty to 20 
knots or so closer to the coast. VFR/dry conditions on Sat...but all 
sites can expect gusty northwest flow..to 20-25 knots (25-30 knots at ksby). 
Generally sky clear with lighter winds Sat night-sun. 


Generally dry/VFR through Monday with increasing moisture later Monday- 
Tuesday as a warm front begins to affect the area. This would be next 
chance for more significant ceiling/visibility restrictions. 


&& 


Marine... 
latest observation reflect northwest flow generally 20-25kt with gusts to ~30 knots in 
moderate cold air advection this afternoon. Msas 3-hour pressure change is noting ~2-3 mb 
pressure rises over the marine area behind cold front which has 
shunted offshore this afternoon. Have generally noted gusts running just 
slightly ahead of guidance, helped in part by scattered rain showers allowing 
stronger winds aloft to mix down to the surface. Have gone ahead with Gale 
Warning over Northern Bay zones and far northern coastal zones. Wind 
gusts are very close to gale in these areas at this time...and with 
strongest surge of cold air advection still a few hours off, expect predominate gusts 
to gale for a few hours between 00z/8p and 10z/6a. Have run headline 
through 15z/11a for now, with the idea that overnight crew keep an 
eye on observation and expire early as needed. 


Seas will run on the order of 5-8 feet on the coastal waters...waves 
~2 feet on the sound, 2-3 feet on the rivers, 3-5 in the lower ches Bay. 
Period of Small Craft Advisory flags will be re-issued as soon as gales are expired 
as developing low pressure off New Jersey/southern new eng coast slowly lifts to 
the NE into sun...resulting in only gradual improvement (sca per 
wavewatch potentially to linger over the northern ocn waters into late sat). 
Small Craft Advisory flags drop off over all but coastal areas Sat night, extending 
into early Sunday over northern coastal zones. 


Far more favorable boating conditions expected for the latter half 
of the Holiday weekend as high pressure builds in from the northwest. Winds 
and seas will gradually diminish through this period with west winds at or below 15 
knots. 


&& 


Akq watches/warnings/advisories... 
Maryland...none. 
NC...none. 
Virginia...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for anz633- 
635>638. 
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Saturday night for 
anz632-634-654-656-658. 
Gale Warning until 11 am EDT Saturday for anz630-631-650-652. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...Sam 
near term...Sam 
short term...Sam 
long term...mam 
aviation...lkb 
marine...mam