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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Thursday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 68 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 75 °
• Low: 50 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Saturday
• 
• High: 72 °
• Low: 50 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 75 °
• Low: 46 °
• Clear

• Monday
• 
• High: 77 °
• Low: 50 °
• Clear

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia 
647 am EDT Thursday may 23 2013 


Synopsis... 
the combination of high pressure over the Atlantic and southwest 
winds will continue to pull a warm and humid airmass into the region 
through Thursday. A cold front will pass through the middle Atlantic 
Thursday night into Friday morning. High pressure returns to the 
area late Friday into the weekend with drier conditions and cooler 
temperatures expected. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
showers continuing across the Virginia Piedmont this morning due to an 
area of weak convergence. Precipitation is also filling in across NE 
NC/southeast Virginia. Expect coverage and intensity of precipitation to increase 
through the day as instability increases due to daytime heating 
and continued warm air advection. 


Currently...prtly to mostly cloudy sky with low stratus but expect 
cloud levels to begin lifting by 13/14z. Chances for rain will 
increase Thursday morng across the Piedmont as moisture and middle-level 
energy embedded in the SW flow aloft increases. Meanwhile...middle 
level energy moving around the periphery of a 500mb high located 
in the Atlantic will increase rain/thunder chances near the coast 
Thursday morning/aftn. Again...moderate instability will be in place 
accompanied by precipitable waters  around 1.7in creating conditions that will 
support heavy rain and occasional lightning. 


Chances for rain will increase through the day Thursday as deep layer 
moisture increases and low pressure approaches from the west. Not 
expecting severe weather however an isolated damaging Wing gust is possible to the 
west as shear profiles increase ahead of an approaching middle-level 
trough. Don't expect it to rain the entire day however coverage is 
enough to warrant likely (70%) probability of precipitation. Best timing for heavy rain/convection 
will be in the afternoon/Erly evening hours as moisture increases and the 
middle Atlantic sits under the right entrance region of an upper-level 
jet streak. Hi temperatures genrly in the low 80s. Readings will be a bit 
cooler near the coast. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Saturday night/... 
the rain will end from west to east Erly Friday as the cold front 
advances off the coast. Not expecting skies to completely clear 
out...with moisture still in place aloft following the surface frontal passage. 


Drier conds expected by Friday afternoon (though keeping a chance for showers 
over eastern areas with the upper-level trough still west of the area) as 
surface flow becomes nwrly for the first time in several days...and 
temperatures only reaching the low to middle 70s in most locations. Surface hi 
pressure builds in from the west on Sat leading to a mostly sny sky and 
noticeably cooler temperatures (highs only in the low to middle 70s). 


&& 


Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/... 
medium range forecast period characterized by modified Canadian high 
pressure dropping northwest to southeast across the area for the latter half of 
the Memorial Day weekend. Aloft, closed upper level low over the 
northeast and Atlantic Canada will slowly lift NE Sunday, allowing 
for modest height rises aloft, and with it a general incremental 
ramping up of temperatures through the period. It will also allow for 
northwest flow aloft across the southern middle-Atlantic Sunday and 
Monday. Low (slight chance) probability of precipitation remain in place for Memorial Day 
afternoon/evening as a weak disturbance/middle level trough drops across 
the region and a surface warm front lifts north to the west. 


Bermuda high/Summer-like pattern reloads for the middle to latter 
potion of the week, as middle-upper level ridging rebuilds across 
the eastern half of the Continental U.S. And surface high slides offshore. Rainfall 
opportunities will primarily be diurnally driven Monday-Wed, with 
little more than partly cloudy and increasingly muggy conditions 
by night. 


&& 


Aviation /12z Thursday through Monday/... 
gradual lowering of ceilings into the morning hours across the forecast area. Scattered-broken St at or below 
1kft beginning to spread northward through portions of NC...expected to arrive 
from the S through the early/middle morning hours. Additionally...area of 
rain showers/few embedded T in vicinity of pdmnt of Virginia/NC will be moving very slowly 
to the east in the next several hours. Widespread IFR ceilings expected across the forecast area 
into the evening hours along west/ incrsg coverage of rain showers/isold-sct T. Ptntl 
for IFR visibilities in heavy rain. Rain slo to end this evening...along west/ only 
gradual improvement of ceilings. Generally (any) ceilings Friday VFR (abv 3kft) along 
west/ developing gusty northwest winds (to 25-30 kt) by afternoon. Winds slo to subside 
into Sat. Low probability MVFR ceilings in vicinity of CST Friday night into Sat as coastal low 
pressure slo to develop (offshore). Otherwise...VFR conds expected Sat through 
Monday. 


&& 


Marine... 
prevailing S flow at this time...and expected into tonight ahead of next cold front. 
Marginal windspeeds for (lo end) scas (mdls lower spds later today as 
widespread rain enters the wtrs)...seas on the ocn gradually 
building/approaching 5 feet. Cold front crosses the waters Friday morning...to be 
followed by windshift to northwest and increases in spds (due to MDT low level caa) 
to solid scas (20-25 knots...gusts to 30 kt). These conds to last into 
Sat as coastal low pressure (offshr) is slo to develop. GFS/European model (ecmwf) in genl 
agreement over development and location of that storm of New Jersey/southern new eng Friday 
night into Sat. The low is slo to lift to the NE sun into 
Monday...resulting in only gradual improvement (lastly over the northern ocn 
waters by lt in the wknd). Only change to headlines will be to extend the 
Small Craft Advisory for the northern ocn waters through Friday (22z/24). There will be a lull 
in spds (fm lt today/tonight into Friday mrng) before passage of cold front so 
hold off on adding an additional headline to the Bay/southern ocn for now. 


&& 


Akq watches/warnings/advisories... 
Maryland...none. 
NC...none. 
Virginia...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for anz630>632- 
634. 
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for anz650-652-654. 
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 am EDT 
Friday for anz656-658. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...bmd 
near term...bmd/dap 
short term...mas/dap 
long term...mam 
aviation...alb 
marine...alb