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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Sunday
• 
• High: 79 °
• Low: 66 °
• T-Storms

• Monday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 66 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 68 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 66 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 68 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia 
117 am EDT sun may 19 2013 


Synopsis... 
a weak front remains nearly stationary over North Carolina tonight. This 
front is expected to lift to the north on Sunday...and move north 
of the region by Monday afternoon. A ridge of high pressure off the 
southeast coast will prevail into the middle of the week. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am this morning/... 
latest weather analysis continues to depict a stationary front/boundary 
over NC...with a rather broad middle/upper level trough situated from 
Kentucky down into the Carolinas. Latest radar shows the more organized 
activity from earlier in the evening now off the coast...but with 
another batch of moisture pushing north into south central Virginia from 
central NC. 


Tough call as to the evolution of this next round. Models generally 
confine it to Piedmont counties south of fvx...but will broad- 
brush some likely/60% probability of precipitation over S central Virginia as well as interior NE 
NC through 07z...with 40-50% over most of the remainder of the County Warning Area 
(except will also carry likely probability of precipitation across portions of the eastern 
shore). Due to fairly weak middle/upper dynamics do not expect the 
amount of coverage or intensity of precipitation as last night. 
Concerning thunderstorms...will keep mention of isolated convection over 
far southern Virginia/NE NC going after midnight where ml cape on the 
order of 500 to 1000 j/kg persists (just rain showers farther north). Min 
temperatures drop very little from current values with mainly overcast skies 
and mixing...low to middle 60s for most locations. Added fog to northwest 
sections of the County Warning Area per latest observation...although not expecting visibilities 
to drop to much less than 1 mile due to cloud cover. 


&& 


Short term /6 am this morning through Tuesday/... 
wet weather will continue Sunday through Monday as the stalled front 
begins to lift northward. Also an upper level trough over the Ohio/Kentucky area 
will move across the middle Atlantic region Monday. Precipitation is expected to 
be most widespread over western portions of the area Sunday per 
model guidance where upper level support will be best. Probability of precipitation increase 
once again Monday mainly across southern portions. As the trough moves 
off to the east...precipitation decreases over western portions by Monday afternoon. 


High temperatures Sunday and Monday will be warmer...generally in 
the upper 70s to lower 80s with slightly cooler readings near the coast. 
Lows will range through the 60s. 


During the remainder of the short term...while the upper level 
trough moves off to the east...further upper level impulses are 
expected to impact the area. Precipitation diminishes by around midnight 
Monday night. Some redevelopment of thunderstorms is expected Tuesday afternoon 
mainly over southern Virginia/NE North Carolina. High temperatures Tuesday are 
forecast to reach into the middle to upper 80s at most locations. 


72 hour quantitative precipitation forecast totals forecast to range from 1 to 2 inches with 
local amounts to 3 inches possible across the Piedmont to around 
a half inch to an inch toward the coast. Some issues on area 
rivers are possible early this coming week. See Hydro section below. 
At this time...there are no plans for a Flood Watch but this will 
continue to be monitored. 


&& 


Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/... 
models similar over this time period with the timing of another trough 
deeping at 500 mb toward Friday and Saturday. This will usher a 
stronger cold front through the region Friday into Saturday. The 
front will have some showers and thunderstorms with it as it moves 
through. Before that a frontal boundary remains nearly stationary 
across the Great Lakes and New England. South of this area will have 
general south to southwest flow across the area. Could see an 
isolated afternoon thunderstorm. Any thunderstorms that form north 
along the boundary could push into the northern part of the area 
during the evenings. Temperatures will be at or above normal until 
the front passes. Then temperatures will drop back on Saturday to at 
or below normal. 


&& 


Aviation /05z Sunday through Thursday/... 
aviation conditions next 12 hours or so appear to be split between 
MVFR/VFR at kphf/kecg/korf and mainly IFR at kric/ksby. Looks like 
kric will remain IFR/LIFR through at least 12z in pre-warm frontal 
airmass with scattered shwrs/fog/dz. Ksby...based upon observations 
last 1-2 hours...will likely oscillate between IFR and 
MVFR...although IFR will dominate in the 09z-14z time frame. The 
other 3 tafs should be mainly VFR/MVFR...although a heavier 
shower/thunderstorm could briefly bring conditions down to IFR. With 
little forcing through 20z...do not expect a lot of shower/thunderstorm 
activity at korf/kphf/kecg. 


Latest NAM suggests that precipitation focus will shift to the north and 
west as warm front lifts northward ahead of weakening upper trough from 
the Tennessee Valley. This should limit precipitation coverage at terminals in the 
12z-00z time frame...although scattered showers/isolated thunderstorm possible at ksby 
through 18z...and at kric after 21z. 


Region in warm sector Monday through Wednesday with scattered...more 
diurnal...shwr/tstm activity...but mainly VFR/MVFR conditions. 


&& 


Marine... 
difficult forecast initially to see if we get to small craft 
conditions on the Bay. All high res models would support a period of 
small craft winds into this evening. Seeing winds staying close but 
just under small craft at 19z. Expect that by 20z most sites will 
have small craft conditions. This wind increase seems to be 
associated with a weak low pressure moving along the boundary south 
of the area increasing the southeast winds. With continued east to 
southeast winds tonight will see seas increase to 5 feet along the 
northern coastal waters. Seas will drop back to under 5 feet on 
Sunday. Winds will also diminish and gradually become more southerly 
on Sunday and then southwest on Monday as a warm front moves slowly 
north through the waters. The warm front will slowly lift north from 
North Carolina tonight and Sunday and finally be north of the waters 
on Monday a weak upper low will move slowly east from the Midwest 
and eventually off the coast by Monday night. These features will 
continue showers and thunderstorms at times through Monday. 


&& 


Hydrology... 
rainfall over the Piedmont and ridges to the west are forecast to 
bring significant rises to area rivers by Monday and Tuesday. Some 
locations will likely experience action stage and may possibly 
have minor flooding. This will depend on which basins locally 
heavy rainfall sets up which is too early to determine. 


&& 


Equipment... 
akq 88d radar is back in service. 


&& 


Akq watches/warnings/advisories... 
Maryland...none. 
NC...none. 
Virginia...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 6 am EDT early this morning for 
anz650. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...lkb 
near term...lkb/lsa 
short term...lsa 
long term...jab 
aviation...worse 
marine...jab 
hydrology... 
equipment...