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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Monday
• 
• High: 79 °
• Low: 70 °
• T-Storms

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 68 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 64 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 63 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 50 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia 
152 am EDT Monday may 20 2013 


Synopsis... 
a weak front will slowly push north of the area tonight as high 
pressure becomes anchored well off the coast. Showers and thunderstorms 
will become more widely scattered after Monday...with above average 
temperatures prevailing through much of the upcoming week. A cold 
front will pass through the Middle Atlantic States late Thursday into 
early Friday...with cooler temperatures expected by next weekend. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am this morning/... 
latest weather analysis depicts a rather diffuse upper level low 
situated from eastern Kentucky to SW Virginia and NC. At the surface...the frontal 
boundary is also fairly weak...now to the north of the County Warning Area. Surface winds 
are fairly light and generally from the south. Made only minimal 
changes to the forecast overnight...with chance probability of precipitation for most of the 
County Warning Area. Infrared satellite generally shows cloud tops are warming...do not 
expect any thunder through the morning hours but with precipitable waters  ~1.5in 
expect moderate rainfall to occur during any showers...greatly 
reducing visibilities. 


Some patchy fog is expected to develop once again early Monday 
morning... especially in areas north of Interstate 64 and on the 
Maryland Eastern Shore. Widespread dense fog is not anticipated as 
the fog should mainly develop from lowering stratus. 


Low temperatures Monday morning are forecast to range through the 
60s across the area. 


&& 


Short term /6 am this morning through Wednesday/... 
another round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected Monday 
under the influence of the dissipating upper level trough. A bit 
more instability is expected which will result in more widespread 
thunderstorm activity than was experienced Sunday. Heavy rainfall 
will be the main threat with activity moving rather slowly. Have 
likely probability of precipitation across the southern Piedmont and south central Virginia 
and into the North Carolina counties east to near the Chowan river. 
High temperatures will be slightly warmer than Sunday with readings 
generally around 80 inland and the low to middle 70s at the coast. 


Conditions should begin to dry out Monday night and Tuesday as the 
high pressure over the southeastern states begins to dominate. 
Highest probability of precipitation (showers/thunderstorms) will be in southeast Virginia 
and northeast North Carolina at 30 percent. Temperatures are 
forecast to top out in the middle to upper 80s in most areas with upper 70s 
to lower 80s near the coast and over the lower Eastern Shore. 
Precipitation should end by late Tuesday evening. 


For Wednesday...models are all over the place with probability of precipitation. With no 
strong triggers for convection or indications of where convection 
will focus...kept probability of precipitation at 30 percent throughout the County Warning Area. High 
temperatures will be similar to what is forecast for Tuesday. 


&& 


Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/... 
long term period starts off Wednesday night with a chance for rain...mainly 
west of I-95...ahead of an approaching middle-level trough and associated 
cold front. S/SW flow will keep temperatures above normal...with lows in the 
middle to upper 60s. This pattern continues into Thursday/Thursday night with still a 
30-40% chance for shwrs/tstms. Deep-layer moisture is abundant however 
forcing is a limiting factor due to a lack of warm air advection and most short wave 
energy staying off to the north. Models have continued to speed up 
the timing of the front...with the frontal passage now expected to be sometime 
late Thursday/Thursday night. Highs Thursday in the low to middle 80s. Behind the front Friday 
into the weekend...diminishing chances for rain and slightly lower temperatures 
(but still around seasonal norms) with highs in the middle 70s to lower 
80s and lows in the 50s. 


&& 


Aviation /06z Monday through Friday/... 
considerably less stratus/fog across the area and terminals 
tonight vs. Last night. Main area of potential IFR conditions 
appears to be on the Delaware-Maryland-Virginia. Have ksby in IFR the next 6 
hours...based upon observation trends at koxb/kwal and kged. 
Elsewhere...expect some br...and perhaps some stratus 
development...but generally VFR/MVFR conditions expected. 
Increased low level mixing vice last night also expected to inhibit 
fog development before sunrise. Could be a few showers as 
well...but have left out of most terminals due to lack of 
definitive timing. 


For the most part...expect today to be VFR. However...significant 
uncertainty exists with regard to potential shower/thunderstorm activity. 
Given increased amount of sunshine expected today...have opted to 
include prob30 for thunderstorms at most terminals in the 19z to 23z time 
frame. Heavier showers/thunderstorms will cause brief IFR conditions. Expect 
tonight to be similar to current conditions...with mainly VFR/MVFR 
conditions prevailing. 


Mainly VFR in the Tuesday to Thursday time frame...with the potential for 
isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms both Tue/Wed. More widespread shower/thunderstorm 
activity expected Thursday along/ahead of next cold front...which moves across 
the area Thursday/Thursday night. 


&& 


Marine... 
southeast flow prevails tonight as a warm front lifts north of the area. Hires 
models show a quick shot of Small Craft Advisory winds over the Bay later this 
aftn/eveng...but not confident enough or long lasting enough to issue a 
Small Craft Advisory headline for this at this time. Winds stay genrly 10-15 knots overnight and 
shift from southeast to S. Seas will approach 4-5 feet out 20 nm over coastal 
waters...with best chance for 5+ feet over the northern two zones where 
Small Craft Advisory headlines continue through the overnight hours. 12z wavewatch shows 5 feet 
seas there lasting into Monday and Monday night...but with wavewatch 
running high during southerly flow as of late...will end the Small Craft Advisory at 
4 am tonight with the next shift either expiring the hazard or 
extending it out in time. Otw...sub-sca southerly winds continue for 
the next few days ahead of an approaching cold front which crosses 
the area late Thursday/Thursday night. 


&& 


Hydrology... 
river level forecasts have been lowered substantially due to lack 
of significant rainfall in the headwaters. 


&& 


Akq watches/warnings/advisories... 
Maryland...none. 
NC...none. 
Virginia...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 4 am EDT early this morning for 
anz650-652. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...lkb 
near term...lkb/dap 
short term...lsa 
long term...jef 
aviation...worse 
marine...mas 
hydrology...