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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Sunday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 68 °
• T-Storms

• Monday
• 
• High: 79 °
• Low: 68 °
• T-Storms

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 66 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 66 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 68 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia 
739 PM EDT Sat may 18 2013 


Synopsis... 
a weak front remains nearly stationary over North Carolina tonight. This 
front is expected to lift to the north on Sunday...and move north 
of the region by Monday afternoon. A ridge of high pressure off the 
southeast coast will prevail into the middle of the week. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Sunday morning/... 
latest weather analysis continues to depict a stationary front/boundary 
over NC...with a rather broad middle/upper level trough situated from 
Kentucky down into the Carolinas. Radar returns have diminished over 
much of the area over the past few hours...bulk of shower activity 
now confined to the peninsula/Hampton Roads and Eastern Shore...with 
a cluster of thunderstorms over NE NC (have 60-80% probability of precipitation in these areas). 
Elsewhere...have dropped probability of precipitation down to about 30-40% through the 
remainder of the evening hours. 


Tough call as to overnight coverage of precipitation...as shortwave 
energy looks to be slow to push southeast from Kentucky (and weakens while 
doing so). Still enough residual low/middle level moisture and 
scattered rain showers/thunderstorms ongoing in NC/western Virginia to keep chance probability of precipitation 
going overnight. Little movement expected with the surface boundary 
and due to fairly weak middle/upper dynamics do not expect the 
amount of coverage or intensity as last night. Concerning 
thunderstorms...will keep mention of isolated convection over far southern 
Virginia/NE NC going after midnight where ml cape on the order of 500 to 
1000 j/kg persists (just rain showers farther north). Min temperatures drop very 
little from current values with mainly overcast skies and mixing...low 
to middle 60s for most locations. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Sunday morning through Tuesday/... 
wet weather will continue Sunday through Monday as the stalled front 
begins to lift northward. Also an upper level trough over the Ohio/Kentucky area 
will move across the middle Atlantic region Monday. Precipitation is expected to 
be most widespread over western portions of the area Sunday per 
model guidance where upper level support will be best. Probability of precipitation increase 
once again Monday mainly across southern portions. As the trough moves 
off to the east...precipitation decreases over western portions by Monday afternoon. 


High temperatures Sunday and Monday will be warmer...generally in 
the upper 70s to lower 80s with slightly cooler readings near the coast. 
Lows will range through the 60s. 


During the remainder of the short term...while the upper level 
trough moves off to the east...further upper level impulses are 
expected to impact the area. Precipitation diminishes by around midnight 
Monday night. Some redevelopment of thunderstorms is expected Tuesday afternoon 
mainly over southern Virginia/NE North Carolina. High temperatures Tuesday are 
forecast to reach into the middle to upper 80s at most locations. 


72 hour quantitative precipitation forecast totals forecast to range from 1 to 2 inches with 
local amounts to 3 inches possible across the Piedmont to around 
a half inch to an inch toward the coast. Some issues on area 
rivers are possible early this coming week. See Hydro section below. 
At this time...there are no plans for a Flood Watch but this will 
continue to be monitored. 


&& 


Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/... 
models similar over this time period with the timing of another trough 
deeping at 500 mb toward Friday and Saturday. This will usher a 
stronger cold front through the region Friday into Saturday. The 
front will have some showers and thunderstorms with it as it moves 
through. Before that a frontal boundary remains nearly stationary 
across the Great Lakes and New England. South of this area will have 
general south to southwest flow across the area. Could see an 
isolated afternoon thunderstorm. Any thunderstorms that form north 
along the boundary could push into the northern part of the area 
during the evenings. Temperatures will be at or above normal until 
the front passes. Then temperatures will drop back on Saturday to at 
or below normal. 


&& 


Aviation /23z Saturday through Thursday/... 
tricky aviation forecast this afternoon through Sunday. Showers 
from ric to sby were slowly pushing east and should make their way 
to phf around 19-20z. Even with the showers conditions at ric were 
MVFR as of 1730z and should remain MVFR with a brief period of IFR 
through 22z as periods of rain reduce visibilities to just below 3sm and 
the NE flow drops ceilings to just less than 1kft. At sby 
prevailing IFR conditions should hold off until around 06z when 
southeast winds increase and stratus moves in from the ocean. The showers 
near ric to ptb should reach phf shortly after 20z and MVFR 
conditions at pfh could become briefly IFR with a few heaver 
showers through 23z. Once the coverage in shower activity 
decreases with sunset MVFR conditions will prevail at phf. 


More showers were ongoing from near ecg west along the NC/Virginia 
border along another boundary. This area of showers may expand 
briefly but the bulk of the rain may stay west of orf and ecg this 
afternoon and evening. A brief period of showers may reach orf from 
21z-02z but shower activity should be very scattered as far east 
as orf and phf. Overall conditions at orf and phf should remain 
MVFR with a brief period of IFR possible in the showers. 


Guidance suggests ric will become IFR with stratus overnight along 
with sby and remain IFR through middle morning Sunday. Closer to the 
coast the remainder of the taf sites remain MVFR overnight. For 
Sunday expect much of the same with MVFR-VFR conditions over southeast Virginia 
and NE NC and MVFR-IFR conditions at ric and sby. 


&& 


Marine... 
difficult forecast initially to see if we get to small craft 
conditions on the Bay. All high res models would support a period of 
small craft winds into this evening. Seeing winds staying close but 
just under small craft at 19z. Expect that by 20z most sites will 
have small craft conditions. This wind increase seems to be 
associated with a weak low pressure moving along the boundary south 
of the area increasing the southeast winds. With continued east to 
southeast winds tonight will see seas increase to 5 feet along the 
northern coastal waters. Seas will drop back to under 5 feet on 
Sunday. Winds will also diminish and gradually become more southerly 
on Sunday and then southwest on Monday as a warm front moves slowly 
north through the waters. The warm front will slowly lift north from 
North Carolina tonight and Sunday and finally be north of the waters 
on Monday a weak upper low will move slowly east from the Midwest 
and eventually off the coast by Monday night. These features will 
continue showers and thunderstorms at times through Monday. 


&& 


Hydrology... 
rainfall over the Piedmont and ridges to the west are forecast to 
bring significant rises to area rivers by Monday and Tuesday. Some 
locations will likely experience action stage and may possibly 
have minor flooding. This will depend on which basins locally 
heavy rainfall sets up which is too early to determine. 


&& 


Equipment... 
akq 88d radar is back in service. 


&& 


Akq watches/warnings/advisories... 
Maryland...none. 
NC...none. 
Virginia...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for anz630>632- 
634-638. 
Small Craft Advisory until 6 am EDT Sunday for anz650-652-654. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...lkb 
near term...lkb/lsa 
short term...lsa 
long term...jab 
aviation...jao 
marine...jab 
hydrology...akq 
equipment...akq