Updated: 2:19 PM EDT on January 31, 2015
Partly cloudy. Lows overnight in the low 40s.
Some clouds this evening will give way to mainly clear skies overnight. Low near 40F. WSW winds shifting to N at 10 to 15 mph.
Sunny skies. High 61F. Winds N at 5 to 10 mph.
Clear skies. Low 38F. Winds light and variable.
Plentiful sunshine. High 72F. Winds S at 10 to 20 mph.
Partly cloudy skies during the evening will give way to cloudy skies overnight. Low around 55F. Winds S at 5 to 10 mph.
Cloudy skies early, followed by partial clearing. High 78F. Winds SSW at 15 to 25 mph.
Partly cloudy in the evening. Increasing clouds with periods of showers after midnight. Low 56F. Winds SW at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70%.
Becoming partly cloudy after some morning light rain. High 61F. Winds WNW at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70%.
Clear. Low 37F. Winds light and variable.
Sunny. High 67F. Winds SW at 5 to 10 mph.
Partly cloudy. Low 44F. Winds light and variable.
A few passing clouds, otherwise generally sunny. High 71F. Winds SSW at 10 to 15 mph.
A few clouds from time to time. Low 52F. Winds light and variable.
Partly cloudy skies. High 73F. Winds SSW at 5 to 10 mph.
Partly cloudy skies early will give way to occasional showers later during the night. Low 54F. Winds light and variable. Chance of rain 50%.
Rain showers early with mostly cloudy conditions later in the day. High 74F. Winds SSW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50%.
Rain showers in the evening becoming more intermittent overnight. Low near 55F. Winds light and variable. Chance of rain 40%.
Showers early, becoming a steady rain later in the day. High 71F. Winds S at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60%. Rainfall around a quarter of an inch.
Rain. Low around 50F. Winds light and variable. Chance of rain 60%. Rainfall near a quarter of an inch.
Cloudy with periods of rain. High 71F. Winds light and variable. Chance of rain 60%. Rainfall around a quarter of an inch.
Occasional light rain. Low 49F. Winds light and variable. Chance of rain 60%.
... Increased fire danger this afternoon...
The combination of low relative humidities and gusty southwest
winds will produce an increased fire danger threat this afternoon.
Winds are expected to gust up to 30 mph with humidity levels
dropping to between 20 to 30 percent.
Residents are urged to exercise caution handling any potential
ignition source... including machinery... cigarettes... and matches.
Be sure to properly discard all smoking materials. Any dry grasses
and tree litter that ignite will have the potential to spread
Virgina residents are reminded that open burning is prohibited before
4 PM each day through April 30th.
Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]
Location: Aaron's Weather Service, Franklin, VA
Updated: 4:42 PM EDT
|Temperature: 70.9 °F||Dew Point: 40 °F||Humidity: 33%||Wind: South at 14.3 mph||Pressure: 29.83 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Heat Index: 76 °F||Graphs|
Location: purdy, Purdy, VA
Updated: 4:42 PM EDT
|Temperature: 74.0 °F||Dew Point: 37 °F||Humidity: 26%||Wind: West at 3.0 mph||Pressure: 29.68 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Heat Index: 76 °F||Graphs|
Location: Cedar Lawn Farms, Ivor, VA
Updated: 4:40 PM EDT
|Temperature: 71.3 °F||Dew Point: 33 °F||Humidity: 24%||Wind: SW at 9.0 mph||Pressure: 29.67 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Heat Index: 75 °F||Graphs|
Location: Conway - 35S, Conway, NC
Updated: 4:42 PM EDT
|Temperature: 68.8 °F||Dew Point: 36 °F||Humidity: 30%||Wind: WSW at 11.0 mph||Pressure: 29.72 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Heat Index: -||Graphs|
Location: Bottle Tree Farm, LLC, Waverly, VA
Updated: 4:42 PM EDT
|Temperature: 70.3 °F||Dew Point: 29 °F||Humidity: 21%||Wind: SSW at 10.3 mph||Pressure: 29.83 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Heat Index: 75 °F||Graphs|
Location: Baer Estates, Ivor, VA
Updated: 4:32 PM EDT
|Temperature: 71.6 °F||Dew Point: 36 °F||Humidity: 27%||Wind: South at 5.8 mph||Pressure: 29.46 in||Hourly Precipitation: -||Heat Index: 76 °F||Graphs|
Location: Brink, Emporia, VA
Updated: 4:35 PM EDT
|Temperature: 72.1 °F||Dew Point: 39 °F||Humidity: 30%||Wind: SSW at 11.0 mph||Pressure: 29.69 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Heat Index: 76 °F||Graphs|
Location: MesoWest, Dewitt, VA
Updated: 4:00 PM EDT
|Temperature: 71 °F||Dew Point: 32 °F||Humidity: 24%||Wind: SW at 11 mph||Pressure: 29.73 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Heat Index: 75 °F||Graphs|
Location: APRSWXNET, Carson, VA
Updated: 2:00 PM EDT
|Temperature: 71 °F||Dew Point: 33 °F||Humidity: 25%||Wind: WSW at 3 mph||Pressure: 29.78 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Heat Index: 75 °F||Graphs|
Location: ALLEN FARMS, Windsor, VA
Updated: 4:42 PM EDT
|Temperature: 69.0 °F||Dew Point: 34 °F||Humidity: 28%||Wind: WSW at 18.0 mph||Pressure: 29.62 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Heat Index: -||Graphs|
MSN Maps of:
|Temp:||Dew Point:||Humidity||Wind||Pressure||Hr Precip||-|
Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia 417 PM EDT Tuesday Mar 31 2015 Synopsis... low pressure will track across the northern middle Atlantic region early this evening...before pushing offshore late in the evening and overnight. High pressure will build over the area on Wednesday...and gradually shift off the coast on Thursday. The next cold front approaches from the northwest on Friday...and crosses the region Friday night into Saturday morning. && Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/... afternoon surface analysis reveals low pressure centered over northern Virginia/western Maryland/south central PA. Breezy warm day across the local area with temperatures mainly from 70-75 f over interior Virginia/NE NC...with 60s prevailing on the Eastern Shore and the immediate coast of Virginia/NE NC. Skies are still sunny/mostly sunny for the most part...but latest satellite reveals broken/overcast cloud cover in the vicinity of the surface low and given a west-northwest flow aloft...expect skies to become partly to mostly cloudy for northern portions of the akq County Warning Area over the next few hours. Dew points remain very low (mainly in the 20s to lower 30s)...so precipitation chances will generally be confined to far northern/NE sections of the County Warning Area...primarily from 22z through 02z this evening (although will have some low chance probability of precipitation prior to this over the far north). Some of the high- res model data still depicts measurable quantitative precipitation forecast all the way into southern Virginia/NE NC. Given how dry it will be and that current observation upstream are showing rain having a tough time reaching the ground S/SW of the surface low track...will favor a drier forecast close to that depicted by the 12z nam12. Will confine low end likely probability of precipitation to the Maryland zones...with just chance/slight chance for remaining zones mainly along/N/NE of I-64. Generally going with a dry forecast S/SW of I-64. Wind speeds will average 15-20 miles per hour with gusts mainly up to 25-35 miles per hour into the early evening hours. The combination of dry and breezy conditions will enhance fire danger through sunset so the fire weather statement has been issued. See fire weather section below for more detailed information. Conds dry out quickly after midnight with skies becoming mostly clear with low temperatures mainly in the upper 30s to middle 40s. && Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Friday/... Canadian high pressure returns to the region on Wednesday. A cooler day under mostly sunny skies should be anticipated with highs in the Lower-Middle 60s for interior southern Virginia/NE NC and in the middle- upper 50s closer to the coast as winds turn onshore in the afternoon as the pressure gradient weakens. Surface high pressure axis shifts offshore late Wednesday night. Light winds and mostly clear skies should result in overnight lows in the middle 30s to around 40 most locations. With surface high pressure axis offshore on Thursday and a weather disturbance approaching the region from the SW...the area will be within a warming airmass especially as breezy south winds develop by the afternoon. Most inland locations should reach the lower 70s once again under mostly sunny skies...with highs in the middle- upper 60s at the immediate coast. Increasing clouds Thursday night as upper ridge axis shifts off the coast and a more moist SW flow aloft develops. In general...models are slower at bringing in deep moisture and the northern stream and southern stream are slower to phase. Have scaled back a bit on probability of precipitation for Friday...looks like a low end chance for mainly -ra Friday morning...primarily across northern zones as low level moisture overspreads the region. Very mild Thursday night in south-southwest flow and incraesing clouds...lows in the 50s to possible as warm as 60 f in a few spots. Warm/variably cloudy Friday with 20-30% chance for -shra and perhaps some late day thunderstorms as the surface front moves closer to the region. Highs mainly in the middle-upper 70s...possibly close to 80f if enough sun can prevail. Main rain event looks to hold off until Friday night described in the long term below... && Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/... extended period will start off wet as a cold front crosses the region Friday night-Sat morning. Still some minor spatial and timing differences in the models with respect to associated southern stream energy and the cold front...but mostly now with how quick precipitation clears the coast Sat. Have increased probability of precipitation to likely Friday night...except the southeast. Theta- east advection and mild temperatures will result in marginal instability Friday evening. Soundings also indicate sharpening lapse rates as temperatures aloft cool. Will introduce slight chance thunder Friday evening. Cold front exits the coast Sat as the parent low and shortwave energy lift into the NE states/Canadian Maritimes. High pressure builds in from the west late Sat...remaining over the region through sun. The result will be dry conditions with a mostly sunny sky and slightly below normal temperatures. Highs Sat-sun generally in the low 60s inland and middle-upper 50s Eastern Shore and coastal areas. Lows Sat night in the upper 30s to low 40s. Broad upper trough will remain over southeastern Canada through the weekend into early next week. Associated backdoor front will remain north of the region. High pressure pushes offshore sun as return flow begins to moderate temperatures. Moisture from the Gulf begins to spread back northward into the Midwest early next week as weak perturbations in the westerly flow cross the region. Begin to reintroduce slight chance-low end chance probability of precipitation Tuesday-Tuesday night. Highs Monday in the middle-upper 60s inland and upper 50s to low 60s Eastern Shore and coastal areas. Lows Monday night in the upper 40s-low 50s. Highs Tuesday in the low 70s inland and middle-upper 60s Eastern Shore and coastal area. && Aviation /20z Tuesday through Sunday/... VFR conditions are expected to persist through the 18z taf period. A cold front moves through the area this evening. Ahead of this front...gusty SW winds (25-30 kt) are expected until around 22-23z. A brief -shra cannot be ruled out at ksby this evening. Dry weather and VFR conditions then expected Wednesday and Thursday. Gusty SW winds may again be possible Thursday afternoon. && Marine... low pressure has located over northern Virginia this afternoon with a trailing cold front located along the Ohio Valley. Strong gradient over the region between low pressure and high pressure off the Florida coast has resulted in strong SW winds over the water this afternoon. Speeds generally 15-25 knots. Few gusts of 30 knots observed on elevated sites closet to land...where 30 knots gusts also observed. Seas generally 2-3 feet and waves 1-3 feet. Seas build to 3-5 feet northern waters this evening. Low pressure pushes offshore this evening with the cold front sweeping across the water around midnight. Brief lull in Small Craft Advisory speeds expected this evening in advance of the front...but a northwest cold air advection surge expected Post frontal. Speeds increase to 20-25 knots with a few gusts up to 30 knots after midnight. Seas build to 4-5 feet all coastal zones with waves 3-4 feet. Small Craft Advisory conditions will be relatively short lived as high pressure quickly builds over the waters Wednesday morning. Southeast swell may keep seas hovering around 5 feet 20 nm out through Wednesday morning...but subsiding Wednesday afternoon. High pressure slides offshore Wednesday night with flow returning to the S at or below 15 knots. Southerly winds increase Thursday as a cold front approaches from the west. Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible late Thursday-Thursday evening with southerly winds around 15-20 knots. Seas in the northern waters also prognosticated to reach 5 feet. Flow becomes SW Friday as the front hangs up along the central Appalachians. Front finally crosses the waters late Friday night. Brief period of Small Craft Advisory conditions expected Sat morning before high pressure builds in from the west. High pressure remains over the water through the weekend. && Fire weather... southwest winds 15-20 miles per hour with frequent gusts between 25-35 miles per hour are expected this afternoon/early evening. These winds in combination with relative humidity values dropping to 18 to 25% range across Virginia and northeast NC will increase the fire danger. After coordinating with the NC and Virginia forestry officials and surrounding National Weather Service offices...will maintain an enhanced Fire Danger Statement through 6 PM. Critical red flag criteria may be met in a few locations across the Virginia Piedmont. However...10-hr dead fuel moisture values are still marginal or slightly exceeding the necessary threshold of 7%. On the Eastern Shore...a statement will not be necessary due to higher minimum relative humidity values. && Akq watches/warnings/advisories... Maryland...none. NC...none. Virginia...none. Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 10 am EDT Wednesday for anz630>638. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for anz650-652- 654. Small Craft Advisory from 4 am to noon EDT Wednesday for anz656-658. && $$ Synopsis...lkb near term...lkb short term...lkb/mas long term...Sam aviation...jdm marine...alb/Sam fire weather...