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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 66 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

• Thursday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 66 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 75 °
• Low: 48 °
• Chance of Rain

• Saturday
• 
• High: 77 °
• Low: 57 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 75 °
• Low: 55 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia 
201 am EDT Wednesday may 22 2013 


Synopsis... 
the combination of high pressure over the Atlantic and southwest 
winds will continue to pull a warm and humid airmass into the region 
through Thursday. A cold front will pass through the middle Atlantic 
Thursday night. High pressure returns to the area Friday into the 
weekend with drier conditions and cooler temperatures expected. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am this morning/... 
showers have come to an end across southeast Virginia and NE NC...and the only 
remaining showers are just off the Virginia Beach coast. This area 
of showers is expect to die out in the next 1 to 2 hours with the 
loss of daytime heating. Skies are mostly clear for most of the forecast area 
except for some high cirrus streaming down into far northwest counties 
at this time from the north. 


For overnight...the combination of ample low level moisture and 
clearing this evening will result in the development of low 
stratus after midnight tonight. Once again...S-SW winds at or 
above 5 knots will prevent fog from forming. However if any 
observation sites report visibilities lower than 7 statute 
miles...the obscuration will likely be more haze than fog/mist 
(very similar to Monday night). Temperatures will remain well above 
normal tonight with lows in the middle to upper 60s. 


&& 


Short term /6 am this morning through Friday/... 
similar pattern as last couple days will continue into Wednesday. SW 
flow aloft resumes after a middle-level low pushes offshore tonight. 
Deep layer moisture will then slowly increase Wednesday into Wednesday night 
ahead of a low pressure systm passing through the Great Lakes region. Did 
include a slight chance for a shower/thunderstorm Wednesday afternoon/eveng with a warm and 
moist airmass in place...however most areas should remain dry due to 
a lack of forcing. Otw...expect a prtly cloudy sky with highs in the 
middle 80s. 


For Thursday...cold front approaches from the Ohio Valley...and rain 
likely with increasing moisture and short wave energy aloft. Up to a half 
inch of precipitation possible with the best chance for rain in the afternoon. Hi 
temperatures genrly in the low 80s. Readings will be a bit cooler near 
the coast. The rain will end from west to east Thursday night/Friday morning as 
the cold front advances off the coast. Not expecting skies to 
completely clear out...with moisture still in place aloft following 
the surface frontal passage. 


Drier conds expected by Friday afternoon as flow becomes northwesterly for the 
first time in several days...and temperatures only reaching the middle 70s 
in most locations. 


&& 


Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/... 
Canadian high pressure builds into the area from the northwest Friday night. Clearing 
& cool with decoupling winds inland. Coastal winds stay mixed due to low 
prs slowly pulling away to the NE. Lows M-u40s from i95 on west... 
near 50 in vicinity of ches Bay and l-m50s at the coast. 


Sunny & pleasant Sat with 500 mb ridge ovrhd. Highs in the l-m70s xcpt 
60s at the beaches. Pt cloudy Sat night as some high level moisture ovrsprds 
region. Lows 50-55. Pt sunny and a bit warmer sun. Highs M-u70s xcpt 
65-70 at the beaches. 


Tricky forecast Erly next week. Models now increasing moisture due to combo of 
onshore east-southeast flow and warm front apprchg from the SW. Appears best 
sprt for probability of precipitation will be across southern & western Virginia/northern NC Monday & Monday 
night. Kept slght chance probability of precipitation on Tuesday for now given the low confidence 
this far out. Highs Monday l-m70s. Lows 55-60. Highs Tuesday M-u70s. 


&& 


Aviation /06z Wednesday through Sunday/... 
expect MVFR/IFR ceilings to develop or occur across the area until around 
15z-16z this morng due to moist south-southwest flow. VFR conditions then 
expected the remainder of the day with only an isolated shower or 
thunderstorm possible this aftn/eveng. 


Outlook: IFR stratus will be possible again Thursday morng. Better chance 
for showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and eveng...as a cold front 
approaches from the west. Front pushes off the CST during Friday...with 
lagging upper trough not moving offshr until late Friday night. So...there 
could be lingering lower ceilings and visibilities from scattered precipitation right through Friday 
night. VFR conditions return for Sat and sun...as hi pressure builds into 
and over the region. 


&& 


Marine... 
no headlines in short term as winds remain S-SW at or below 15kt through Wednesday. 
Some channeling up the Bay as well as seas apprchg 5 feet out near 20 nm 
in vicinity of buoy 44009 by Wednesday night...but confidence not high enough to go 
with a sustained Small Craft Advisory so will hold off on headlines at this time. Sca's may 
eventually be needed for seas over northern coastal waters. 


Cdfrnt crosses the waters late Thursday night Friday with low prs moving north 
along it. Will have to monitor prs gradient between this low and strong 
high prs building in from the northwest for possible Small Craft Advisory cndtns Friday into Friday evening. 


Otw...high prs builds into the area over the weekend with sub Small Craft Advisory 
cndtns expeceted both Sat and sun. 


&& 


Akq watches/warnings/advisories... 
Maryland...none. 
NC...none. 
Virginia...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...bmd/mas 
near term...bmd 
short term...mas 
long term...mpr 
aviation...tmg 
marine...mpr