Updated: 10:00 PM EST on February 01, 2015
Overcast. High of 52F. Winds from the SSE at 5 to 10 mph.
Overcast with a chance of rain, then rain after midnight. Low of 45F. Winds from the South at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90% with rainfall amounts near 0.3 in. possible.
Overcast with rain in the morning, then mostly cloudy. High of 55F. Breezy. Winds from the WSW at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Chance of rain 90% with rainfall amounts near 0.2 in. possible.
Clear. Low of 19F. Winds from the NW at 5 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
Partly cloudy in the morning, then clear. High of 43F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Clear. Low of 23F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Partly cloudy in the morning, then clear. High of 50F. Winds from the SSW at 5 to 15 mph.
Partly cloudy in the evening, then clear. Low of 32F. Winds from the SW at 10 to 15 mph.
Overcast in the morning, then partly cloudy. Fog early. High of 41F. Breezy. Winds from the North at 20 to 25 mph.
Partly cloudy in the evening, then clear. Low of 14F. Winds from the NNE at 10 to 15 mph.
Clear. High of 41F. Winds from the NNE at 5 to 15 mph shifting to the East in the afternoon.
Clear. Low of 25F with a windchill as low as 16F. Winds from the South at 5 to 10 mph.
Clear. High of 50F. Breezy. Winds from the SW at 10 to 20 mph.
Clear. Low of 34F. Winds from the WSW at 10 to 15 mph.
Clear. Fog early. High of 43F. Winds from the NNW at 10 to 15 mph shifting to the ENE in the afternoon.
Clear with a chance of snow. Fog overnight. Low of 28F with a windchill as low as 21F. Winds from the ENE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 20%.
Clear with a chance of snow. High of 41F. Winds from the North at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 20%.
Clear. Low of 25F. Winds from the North at 5 to 10 mph.
Clear. High of 43F. Winds from the NNW at 5 to 10 mph.
Clear. Low of 32F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Clear. High of 45F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Clear. Fog overnight. Low of 30F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Clear. Fog early. High of 45F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Clear with a chance of snow. Fog overnight. Low of 30F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of snow 40% with accumulations up to 1 in. possible.
Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]
Location: APRSWXNET Conway NC US, Conway, NC
Updated: 8:00 PM EST
|Temperature: 48 °F||Dew Point: 25 °F||Humidity: 40%||Wind: SSW at 5 mph||Pressure: 29.99 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Windchill: 46 °F||Graphs|
Location: Conway - 35S, Conway, NC
Updated: 8:40 PM EST
|Temperature: 48.0 °F||Dew Point: 26 °F||Humidity: 43%||Wind: SSE at 7.0 mph||Pressure: 29.98 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Windchill: 45 °F||Graphs|
Location: Ashley's Grove, Conway, NC
Updated: 8:41 PM EST
|Temperature: 49.1 °F||Dew Point: 31 °F||Humidity: 50%||Wind: SSE at 12.0 mph||Pressure: 30.02 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Windchill: 44 °F||Graphs|
Location: Aaron's Weather Service, Franklin, VA
Updated: 8:40 PM EST
|Temperature: 46.9 °F||Dew Point: 30 °F||Humidity: 51%||Wind: SSE at 13.3 mph||Pressure: 30.12 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Windchill: 41 °F||Graphs|
Location: Carrsville Fire Station, Carrsville, VA
Updated: 8:27 PM EST
|Temperature: 46.5 °F||Dew Point: 30 °F||Humidity: 52%||Wind: SSW at 6.0 mph||Pressure: 29.26 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Windchill: 44 °F||Graphs|
Location: Brink, Emporia, VA
Updated: 8:37 PM EST
|Temperature: 49.2 °F||Dew Point: 29 °F||Humidity: 46%||Wind: ESE at 6.0 mph||Pressure: 29.95 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Windchill: 47 °F||Graphs|
MSN Maps of:
|Temp:||Dew Point:||Humidity||Wind||Pressure||Hr Precip||-|
Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia 816 PM EST sun Feb 1 2015 Synopsis... low pressure over the middle Mississippi Valley will track across the Ohio Valley and into Pennsylvania tonight...and re-develop off the New Jersey coast Monday morning. Canadian high pressure returns to the region Tuesday and shifts offshore Wednesday. && Near term /through Monday/... latest surface analysis indicates a deepening ~1000mb surface low over Ohio/in border at 01z/8pm...with a cold front trailing back through the middle south into the lower Mississippi Valley...an a warm front extending east-northeast across west PA/NY. Surface high pressure is now well off the southeast coast. Aloft...a vigorous shortwave trough is dropping through the Missouri Valley this evening resulting the aforementioned strengthening low over the Midwest. Have made some minor changes to pop this evening and overnight. Have noted some rain showers moving from the Blue Ridge across our far western zones...so have nudged pop up across the west over the next few hours. Not expecting much quantitative precipitation forecast from this first wave of light overrunning moisture, with bulk of rain showers coming after midnight. Did increase pop into 40-50% range from midnight on along the southeast coast west/influx of warm, moist southerly flow, with probability of precipitation gradually ramping up overnight (categorical pop after 09z. Partial thicknesses support rain throughout the evening...but given the dry air initially...the onset of precipitation could be a brief mix of -ra/ice pellets across the Northern Neck/Eastern Shore...though not substantial enough (surface temperatures upper 30s/low 40s) to include in the grids. The surface airmass is expected to modify through the night as return flow develops across the region due to the low tracking north of the area. "Overnight" lows occurring at this time west/ temperatures in the upper 30s/low 40s. Look for rising temperatures overnight ranging from the upper 40s northwest...to middle/upper 50s southeast by 12z Monday. Monday... likely to categorical probability of precipitation will be maintained for the entire area 12-15z Monday...and in far southeast location this should be the period of most significant rainfall. A quick drying trend commences from 15-18z over most of the area...but likely to categorical probability of precipitation will be maintained for the eastern third of the area through 18z. Total quantitative precipitation forecast should average around 0.5 in...with up to 0.75 in across the Maryland Eastern Shore. Otherwise...probability of precipitation along the coast quickly drop off to 20-30% during the afternoon. The day will begin cloudy across the area with interior Virginia/NC becoming partly sunny by afternoon. The day will begin warm...and cold air advection will likely wait until after sunset...so highs should range from the upper 40s/around 50 f far northwest...to 55-60 f across most of the area. A gusty northwest wind will develop as clearing/drying arrives Monday afternoon...with speeds averaging around 20 miles per hour...with gusts to 30-35 miles per hour. && Short term /Monday night through Wednesday/... deep layer northwest flow prevails Monday night...and backs to westerly Tuesday. This will allow surface high pressure (and associated caa) to build into the region Monday night...with the high locating along the coast by Tuesday afternoon. Lows Monday night should fall into the middle teens northwest...to low 20s southeast under a mostly clear sky. Highs Tuesday will be below normal and range from the low/middle 30s northwest...to low 40s SW. A split flow pattern will prevail Tuesday night and Wednesday...with the middle-Atlantic region largely situated between quasi-zonal northern stream flow and a moist southern stream along the Gulf Coast. This will result in dry conditions...with sky cover averaging partly cloudy across northern portions and mostly clear/sunny across southern portions. Surface high pressure moves offshore Tuesday night and Wednesday...which will allow temperatures to moderate. Lows Tuesday night should average 25-30...followed by highs Wednesday in the upper 40s/around 50 from the northwest Piedmont to the Maryland Eastern Shore...and the low/middle 50s across central/southeast Virginia and NE NC. && Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/... GFS/European model (ecmwf) in very good agreement with regard to overall pattern and tangible weather during the days 4-7 period. Overall... temperatures should be below normal...with no big precipitation events in the extended period. European model (ecmwf) has trended toward GFS with regard to frontal wave and associated cold frontal passage on Thursday. Expect some light precipitation...either rain and/or snow to be produced in association with the frontal passage. Behind the front...another brief cold surge builds in for Thursday night through Saturday...with high pressure in control. Another polar/Arctic front is forecast to move southward into the region Saturday night/Sunday...with a wave forecast to develop Sunday night. European model (ecmwf)/GFS do diverge at this point with regard to where the wave will develop...and therefore what type of precipitation might impact the County Warning Area during that time. GFS is further west and warmer...with European model (ecmwf)...as it has for the last 1-2 months...suggesting a winter weather event. Have gone in between the 2 models...with chance of rain and/or snow...and capped probability of precipitation at 40 percent. && Aviation /01z Monday through Friday/... dry air below 10k feet will be replaced by moist conditions toward midnight with increasing southerly flow ahead of a fast moving low pressure system in the Ohio Valley. Precipitation in SW Virginia will spread eastward and develop at the taf sites during the early morning hours. IFR conditions should hold off until the low levels become saturated by the precipitation. With the area becoming warm sectored... confidence in IFR is not high...especially at phf orf and ecg. Included at least a few hours of IFR at all taf sites as the NAM bufr soundings would suggest it will occur. Winds shift to westerly early Monday afternoon as a cold front sweeps across the area from west to east. Precipitation ends and conditions improve with the frontal passage. Outlook...high pressure returns Tuesday. The next cold front crosses the region Wednesday night-Thursday morning with a chance for precipitation mainly on Thursday. && Marine... have made only minor adjustments to previous forecast in the short term...which will be dominated by surface low and associated cold front moving through the region tonight/Monday. Will upgrade to glw in areas where a gale watch is currently in effect. However...there will be a prolonged period of Small Craft Advisory criteria wind before strongest cold advection surge moves in late Monday afternoon/Monday evening. Winds drop off quickly on Tuesday as high pressure builds into the region. High moves offshore Tuesday night...with next front forecast to cross the region Thursday and Thursday evening. GFS/European model (ecmwf) have some into better agreement with the evolution of this front across the area...and have followed them closely. Winds expected to be weaker ahead of this front...remaining below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Behind the front...another good cold surge should send winds well into Small Craft Advisory criteria Thursday into Thursday night. && Akq watches/warnings/advisories... Maryland...none. NC...none. Virginia...none. Marine...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM EST Monday for anz630>638. Gale Warning from 6 PM Monday to 6 am EST Tuesday for anz630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 4 am to 6 PM EST Monday for anz650- 652-654-656-658. && $$ Synopsis...ajz/lkb near term...ajz/mam short term...ajz/lkb long term...worse aviation...lsa marine...worse