Updated: 10:19 PM EST on February 10, 2016
Partly cloudy this evening...then clearing. Lows in the lower 20s. West winds 10 to 15 mph.
Sunny. Highs in the upper 30s. West winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.
Mostly clear. Cold with lows around 17. Northwest winds around 5 mph...becoming north after midnight.
Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow in the afternoon. Cold with highs in the mid 30s. East winds around 5 mph...becoming south in the afternoon. Chance of snow 40 percent.
Mostly cloudy in the evening...then becoming partly cloudy. Cold with lows in the lower 20s. South winds around 5 mph... becoming west after midnight.
Mostly sunny and brisk. Cold with highs in the lower 30s.
Clear. Cold with lows around 10 above. Wind chill values as low as 5 below.
Sunny. Cold with highs in the upper 20s. Wind chill values as low as 5 below in the morning.
Mostly clear in the evening...then becoming partly cloudy. Cold with lows 10 to 15.
Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow in the morning...then a chance of rain or snow in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.
Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow. Milder. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain or snow in the morning... then a chance of rain in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 40s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s.
Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 50s.
... The Flood Warning has been extended until late tonight... the Flood
Warning continues for
the Nottoway River at Sebrell
* until late tonight... or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 07:15 PM Wednesday the stage was 16.2 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Forecast... the river will continue to fall to below flood stage by
This river level is comparable to a previous crest of 17.9 feet on
Dec 29 2015.
Lat... Lon 3672 7720 3682 7720 3687 7709 3664 7695
Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]
Location: Conway - 35S, Conway, NC
Updated: 1:23 AM EST
|Temperature: 24.8 °F||Dew Point: 9 °F||Humidity: 50%||Wind: WNW at 3.0 mph||Pressure: 30.03 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Windchill: 25 °F||Graphs|
Location: Murfreesboro, Murfreesboro, NC
Updated: 1:17 AM EST
|Temperature: 25.7 °F||Dew Point: 11 °F||Humidity: 54%||Wind: WNW at 1.1 mph||Pressure: 30.03 in||Hourly Precipitation: -||Windchill: 26 °F||Graphs|
Location: Ashley's Grove, Conway, NC
Updated: 1:23 AM EST
|Temperature: 25.9 °F||Dew Point: 9 °F||Humidity: 48%||Wind: WNW at 8.0 mph||Pressure: 30.00 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Windchill: 17 °F||Graphs|
Location: Vaughantown, Murfreesboro, NC
Updated: 1:23 AM EST
|Temperature: 25.5 °F||Dew Point: 10 °F||Humidity: 51%||Wind: WSW at 3.7 mph||Pressure: 29.97 in||Hourly Precipitation: -||Windchill: 21 °F||Graphs|
Location: Aaron's Weather Service, Franklin, VA
Updated: 1:23 AM EST
|Temperature: 25.5 °F||Dew Point: 9 °F||Humidity: 50%||Wind: West at 9.6 mph||Pressure: 30.15 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Windchill: 16 °F||Graphs|
Location: Brink, Emporia, VA
Updated: 1:16 AM EST
|Temperature: 25.0 °F||Dew Point: 10 °F||Humidity: 52%||Wind: SSW at 6.0 mph||Pressure: 30.05 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Windchill: 18 °F||Graphs|
MSN Maps of:
|Temp:||Dew Point:||Humidity||Wind||Pressure||Hr Precip||-|
Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia 1228 am EST Thursday Feb 11 2016 Synopsis... an upper level trough lingers across the region through tonight. High pressure returns later tonight through Thursday night. Weak low pressure lifts along the southeast coast Friday and pushes off the southeast coast Friday night. Arctic high pressure builds in for the upcoming weekend. && Near term /until 6 am this morning/... forecast updated to adjust probability of precipitation a bit based on latest radar trends and surface observation. Up to a dusting is possible over some portions of the lower Eastern Shore...but not expecting any accumulations over most locations there. Previous discussion... trough axis aloft swings through the forecast area lt this aftn/eve...then off the CST overnight. Scattered-broken cloudiness will accompany this trough...along west/ possible isolated snsh or flurries (esp northern half and on the lower Maryland eastern shore). Otherwise...mainly sunny southeast...partly sunny elsewhere west/ seasonably cold thus far this afternoon. A bit a gusty west-southwest at times adding a bit of a chill. Temperatures ranging from the u30s-m40s. Partly cloudy-vrb clouds through early tonight...then clearing thereafter (linger snsh/flurries in vicinity of portions of Eastern Shore until after mdngt). Low temperatures in the upper teens across the central Virginia Piedmont where sky clears earlier to m20s along the coast and Eastern Shore. && Short term /6 am this morning through Saturday/... broad upper level trough aligned along the eastern Seaboard on Thursday. Dry/cold deep layered west-northwest flow as conds average sunny-partly cloudy. Hi temperatures a touch lower than today...ranging from the l-m30s north to the M-u30s S. Surface hi pressure over the region Thursday night into Friday...as additional upper level energy digs over the Midwest into the Gulf states. Models continue to insist on development of weak surface low pressure in vicinity of southeast Continental U.S. CST Friday morning...which tracks east out to sea Friday aftn/ngt. 12z/10 European model (ecmwf) remains the model that keeps moisture west/ that system S of the forecast area. Will continue to blend the NAM/GFS and current forecast...which has a period of -sn possible across far southern and southeast portions of Virginia and across NE NC (starting between 15-18z/12). Model soundings quite dry below 5kft and expecting snow ratios upwards of 15:1. Quantitative precipitation forecast at this time at or below .10" on average. Some scattered -sn possible elsewhere as trough aloft sharpens into the region from the west-northwest. Probability of precipitation will range from 40-60% southeast...to 15-25% elsewhere. Snow accums right now an forecast to be an in or less. Due to clouds and a cold start...expect highs only in the l-m30s most places. Vrb clouds/possible isolated -snsh Friday evening...then strong cold front to cross the forecast area lt Friday night/Sat morning...ushering in additional Arctic air. Ptntl for Bay/ocn induced snsh...otherwise sky clear-partly cloudy Sat west/ gusty northwest winds (to 25-30 mph). Hi temperatures from the u20s northwest to 30-35f elsewhere (wind chills avgg in the teens to l20s). && Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/... strong cold air advection will continue Saturday night as Arctic high pressure builds in from the northwest. 850mb temperatures plummet to around -20 to - 22c across the area. This will usher in the coldest airmass so far this winter...and it will likely be the coldest airmass of the 2015- 16 winter locally based on the fact that it will be middle-February and the 8-14 day CPC outlook indicates above average temperatures as we move into the later portion of the month. Lows Saturday night drop into the single digits for much of the area with middle teens southeast. A northwest wind (strongest e) will drop wind chills below 0f for much of the area and based on the current forecast wind chill advisories will likely be necessary. The high builds across the region Sunday with high temperatures ranging from the low 20s NE...to middle/upper 20s elsewhere under a mostly sunny sky...although Bay streamers are possible early in the day. High pressure shifts toward New England Sunday night with attention turning to a developing system over the deep south Monday. There is plenty of uncertainty with respect to the details. However...a trough does dig across the Ohio Valley Monday night with low pressure developing in vicinity of the southeast coast. The cold air will shallow and retreat during this period...but will likely be stubborn to retreat too fast. The amount of wintry precipitation will depend on the exact track...with the 10/12z GFS/CMC showing a colder more southern and offshore track...with th3 10/12z European model (ecmwf) depicting an inland and warmer track. Drying occurs midweek in the wake of the departing system...with a northern stream wave clipping the area late in the period. && Aviation /06z Thursday through Monday/... snow showers assctd with an ewrd moving short wave will move off the Delaware-Maryland-Virginia next 1-2 hours. Otw...high prs builds in from the west resulting in mainly sky clear expect for some passing middle level clouds from time to time. Prs gradient between departing short wave and building surface high results in rthr breezy cndtns with west winds between 15-25 kts through 22z. Winds quickly dmnsh by sunset Thursday. Outlook...dry weather is expected through early Friday. There will be a chance for light snow mainly orf/ecg area late Friday. Dry weather with gusty northwest winds return for the weekend. High pressure moves off the coast by Monday morning. There will be a chance for rain or snow Monday as southeast to south winds bring a warm advection ahead of the next weather system. && Marine... the pressure gradient tightens later tonight into Thursday with modest cold air advection. This will help strengthen west-northwest flow overnight through Thursday evening...with speeds averaging 20-25kt with gusts up to 30 knots across most of the marine area with 15-20kt with gusts up to 25kt over the rivers. Seas generally average 4-5ft with 3-4ft waves in the Bay. High pressure builds over the middle Atlantic late Thursday night into Friday morning before moving offshore in the afternoon. This will bring a brief period of sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions. Low pressure tracks off the southeast coast Friday afternoon...which could bring some reduced visibility in snow for the southern coastal zones. A strong Arctic cold front then crosses the coast Saturday...with Arctic high pressure building into the area through Sunday. Strong cold air advection is expected with the pressure gradient tightening between low pressure departing to the NE and high pressure building in from the northwest. Gale conditions are possible...especially across the Bay and ocean. Freezing spray is likely as temperatures plummet Saturday afternoon and especially Saturday night. The wind will diminish Sunday into Sunday night as the high settles across the area. && Hydrology... river Flood Warning remains in effect for the Nottoway at Sebrell. See flsakq for details. && Tides/coastal flooding... all coastal flood advisories have been discontinued as tidal anomailes continue to fall in westerly flow. The flow becomes more west-northwest tonight...which will allow anomalies to further fall. Strong northwest flow associated with an Arctic cold front could produce blow- out tides this weekend. && Akq watches/warnings/advisories... Maryland...none. NC...none. Virginia...none. Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for anz630>633-635>638. Small Craft Advisory until 1 am EST Friday for anz634-650-652- 654-656-658. && $$ Synopsis...alb/lkb near term...alb/mas short term...alb/lkb long term...ajz aviation...mpr/lsa marine...ajz hydrology...akq tides/coastal flooding...akq