Updated: 4:00 AM EST on November 23, 2014
Partly cloudy in the morning, then overcast with a chance of rain. High of 61F. Winds from the SSE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50%.
Overcast with rain. Fog overnight. Low of 57F. Winds from the SE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 100% with rainfall amounts near 1.0 in. possible.
Overcast with a chance of rain in the morning, then partly cloudy with a chance of rain. High of 73F. Breezy. Winds from the SSW at 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
Partly cloudy in the evening, then overcast. Low of 48F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 15 mph.
Overcast with a chance of rain in the morning, then partly cloudy with a chance of rain. High of 57F. Winds from the West at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20%.
Overcast with a chance of rain. Low of 37F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 40% with rainfall amounts near 0.4 in. possible.
Overcast with a chance of rain, then a chance of snow and a chance of rain in the afternoon. High of 45F. Winds from the North at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 80% with accumulations up to 1 in. possible.
Overcast in the evening, then mostly cloudy. Fog overnight. Low of 27F with a windchill as low as 21F. Winds from the WNW at 5 to 10 mph.
Partly cloudy. Fog early. High of 36F with a windchill as low as 27F. Winds from the WSW at 5 to 10 mph.
Partly cloudy. Low of 30F with a windchill as low as 23F. Winds from the WSW at 10 to 15 mph shifting to the NW after midnight.
Partly cloudy. High of 55F. Winds from the North at 5 to 10 mph shifting to the ESE in the afternoon.
Clear. Low of 30F with a windchill as low as 23F. Winds from the SSW at 5 to 10 mph.
Partly cloudy. High of 48F. Winds from the SW at 10 to 15 mph.
Partly cloudy. Fog overnight. Low of 28F. Winds from the SW at 10 to 15 mph.
Clear. Fog early. High of 54F. Winds from the WSW at 5 to 10 mph shifting to the South in the afternoon.
Partly cloudy. Fog overnight. Low of 45F. Winds from the SSW at 5 to 10 mph.
Partly cloudy. High of 57F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Partly cloudy with a chance of rain. Fog overnight. Low of 43F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
Partly cloudy. High of 57F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Clear. Low of 39F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Clear. High of 61F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Clear. Fog overnight. Low of 39F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]
Location: Conway - 35S, Conway, NC
Updated: 11:54 AM EST
|Temperature: 51.5 °F||Dew Point: 43 °F||Humidity: 72%||Wind: SSE at 1.0 mph||Pressure: 30.17 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Windchill: -||Graphs|
Location: Ashley's Grove, Conway, NC
Updated: 11:55 AM EST
|Temperature: 54.3 °F||Dew Point: 46 °F||Humidity: 74%||Wind: SSE at 4.0 mph||Pressure: 30.13 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Windchill: -||Graphs|
Location: Aaron's Weather Service, Franklin, VA
Updated: 11:55 AM EST
|Temperature: 53.1 °F||Dew Point: 44 °F||Humidity: 72%||Wind: SSE at 6.0 mph||Pressure: 30.33 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Windchill: -||Graphs|
Location: Carrsville Fire Station, Carrsville, VA
Updated: 11:45 AM EST
|Temperature: 53.1 °F||Dew Point: 45 °F||Humidity: 74%||Wind: South at 3.0 mph||Pressure: 27.66 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Windchill: -||Graphs|
Location: Brink, Emporia, VA
Updated: 11:44 AM EST
|Temperature: 50.6 °F||Dew Point: 44 °F||Humidity: 77%||Wind: ESE at 2.0 mph||Pressure: 30.18 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Windchill: -||Graphs|
Updated: 10:00 AM EST
|Temperature: 45 °F||Dew Point: 39 °F||Humidity: 79%||Wind: SE at 2 mph||Pressure: -||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Windchill: 45 °F||Graphs|
MSN Maps of:
|Temp:||Dew Point:||Humidity||Wind||Pressure||Hr Precip||-|
Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia 1006 am EST sun Nov 23 2014 Synopsis... high pressure moves farther offshore today. A warm front will lift north across the region tonight. A cold front will cross the area late Monday into Monday night. Weak high pressure builds into the area from the west Tuesday. Low pressure tracks up the East Coast Tuesday night through Wednesday. && Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... surface hi pressure now off the CST...will continue to slo drift east away from the CST through today. Clouds continue to thicken and lower from the SW as Gulf Coast moisture and an associated warm front lift NE through the southeast Continental U.S....ahead of the middle-level trough lifting through the Tennessee Valley. Expecting much of the day to be dry...but some rain should arrive in far SW portions of late in the day. Will continue west/ incrsg probability of precipitation to 50-60% probability of precipitation SW late in the day...W/ ribbon of 30-40% pop from the northwest Piedmont through NE NC. Hi temperatures ranging from the m50s northwest to l60s southeast. && Short term /6 PM this evening through Tuesday/... the warm front with strong vertical motion will cross the middle Atlantic region tonight. Substantial moisture (pwtrs incrsg to 1.5 to 2 in 00-06z/24 per 00z/23 gfs) will accompany the front due to a strong nearly 70kt low level jet. Probability of precipitation for rain during the 12hr period tonight will continue at 100%. A slight chance of thunder will be maintained for coastal NE NC (not ready to add to other areas - especially eastern Virginia/lower southeast Maryland but wouldn't rule it out)...and Storm Prediction Center has outlined that area (cstl NE nc) in slight chance severe. A tightening pressure gradient and 6hr pressure falls of -6mb to -10mb GFS will result in breezy/windy conditions...especially in vicinity of the coast. Gusts from the south-southeast direction of 30 to 40 miles per hour are possible. Low temperatures tonight should range through the 50s...with readings likely to rise after midnight. Strong forcing and substantial moisture should result in a ~6hr period of moderate to occasionally heavy rain tonight...with total quantitative precipitation forecast amounts averaging 0.5 to 0.75 in north/central and 1.00-1.25 in near the CST (and NE nc). The warm front will be well north-northeast of the region by 12z/25...W/ a cold front approaching toward the far western counties by 00z Tuesday. Low clouds and fog are possible Monday morning...with a gusty SW wind developing during the late morning and afternoon in advance of the cold front. This will help push temperatures into the 70s (see the the climatology section below for records). Will limit any probability of precipitation to far east-southeast areas of forecast area as 00z/23 NAM remains outlier in lingering moisture across those locations throughout the day. Weak high pressure builds into the region Monday night and Tuesday. Partial clearing is expected inland...with possible clouds lingering right along the coast as the frontal boundary stalls offshore and low pressure begins to develop off the southeast coast later Tuesday. Highs Tuesday should range from the middle 50s northwest...to low 60s southeast...after morning lows from the middle 40s northwest...to low/middle 50s southeast. && Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/... 00z/23 runs of the GFS and European model (ecmwf) coming more into line with respect to ptntl low pressure developing along stalled frontal boundary near the southeast Continental U.S. CST lt Tuesday/Tuesday night...then tracking north-northeast along the CST Wednesday into Wednesday night. A busy period of travel midweek incrsly likely to be impacted by rain...and as ptntl coastal storm winds down (lt Wednesday/Wednesday ngt)...model temperature profiles suggest possible rain ending as wet snow inland. Have nudged probability of precipitation up to 70-80% east portion west...40-60% inland on Wednesday. Precipitation/moist then moves east of the area and off the CST later Wednesday Wednesday night...with probability of precipitation diminishing from west to east. A mainly dry front swings across the area Thursday afternoon into early Friday morng. Hi pressure will then build into and over the region Friday through Sat. Maximum temperatures will be in the l40s west and M/u40s east Wednesday...in the u40s to l50s Thursday...in the M/u40s Friday...and range through the 40s Sat. Min temperatures will be in the middle 30s to lower 40s Wednesday morng...in the upper 20s to middle 30s Thursday and Friday morngs...and in the middle 20s to lower 30s Sat morng. && Aviation /15z Sunday through Thursday/... VFR to start off the 12z taf period with hi pressure centered offshore and a complex frntal systm approaching from the west. Ceilings will decrease through the day as a warm front pushes nwrd through the southeast states...with winds becoming gusty out of the southeast late in the day as well. Chances for rain increase from SW to NE from middle to late afternoon...and am expecting conditions to drop to IFR as the rain overspreads the region through the nitetime hours. Wind gusts to 30 knots may be possible (especially near the cst) Monday morng as the systm deepens over the area. Thunderstorms will also be possible over extreme southeast Virginia/NE NC. Improving conditions into Tuesday as weak hi pressure builds into the region. && Marine... forecast updated with an upgrade to Gale Warning over the ocean. Despite warm air over cool water temperatures...with a strong pressure gradient ahead of an approaching cold front and weak low pressure development over northern Virginia...and latest nam12 progging 925 mb winds ~75 knots...think that there will be at least a few hours of winds at or above 34 knots over the ocean tonight. Seas will reach 6-8 feet. Gusts may come close to gale force over the Bay as well (at least at elevated sites) where strong Small Craft Advisory conditions are anticipated. Also maintained the Small Craft Advisory headlines for the other waters. The Gale Warning ends late Monday morning...but may need to be extended as gusts could continue in the 30-35 knots range through the afternoon hours. The Small Craft Advisory headlines all end during the day Monday as winds decrease just ahead of the front which crosses the waters late Monday night/Tuesday morng. Improving marine conditions then into Tuesday with hi pressure over the area. && Climate... unseasonably warm weather expected Monday. Record high temperatures for Monday. Ric 76 1979 orf 78 1983 sby 78 1931 ecg 77 1983 && Akq watches/warnings/advisories... Maryland...none. NC...none. Virginia...none. Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 am EST Monday for anz635>638. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Monday for anz633-634. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Monday for anz630>632. Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 am EST Monday for anz650-652-654-656-658. && $$ Synopsis...ajz/alb near term...ajz/alb short term...ajz/alb long term...alb/tmg aviation...mas marine...mas climate...akq