Updated: 11:00 PM EDT on October 31, 2014
Clear in the morning, then partly cloudy. High of 64F. Winds from the NNE at 5 to 10 mph.
Partly cloudy. Low of 45F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Overcast with a chance of rain, then rain in the afternoon. High of 59F. Winds from the North at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
Partly cloudy with a chance of rain. Low of 39F. Breezy. Winds from the NNW at 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20%.
Clear. High of 52F. Breezy. Winds from the NW at 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
Clear. Low of 30F. Winds from the NW at 5 to 10 mph.
Clear. High of 61F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Clear. Low of 37F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 10 mph.
Clear in the morning, then overcast. High of 72F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 10 mph.
Overcast. Low of 46F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 10 mph.
Partly cloudy. High of 72F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 10 mph.
Mostly cloudy. Low of 45F. Winds from the SSW at 5 to 10 mph.
Partly cloudy. High of 73F. Winds from the SSW at 10 to 15 mph.
Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Fog overnight. Low of 36F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 15 mph shifting to the NW after midnight. Chance of rain 50%.
Clear. High of 64F. Winds from the NW at 10 to 15 mph.
Clear. Low of 34F. Winds from the NNW at 10 to 15 mph.
Clear. High of 59F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Clear. Low of 45F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Partly cloudy. High of 61F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Partly cloudy. Low of 41F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Clear. High of 64F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Clear. Low of 39F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Clear. High of 59F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Clear. Low of 39F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]
Location: Nowell Farm Road, Colerain, NC
Updated: 9:37 PM EDT
|Temperature: 44.8 °F||Dew Point: 44 °F||Humidity: 97%||Wind: Calm||Pressure: 29.57 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Windchill: 45 °F||Graphs|
Location: Ashley's Grove, Conway, NC
Updated: 9:38 PM EDT
|Temperature: 43.1 °F||Dew Point: 40 °F||Humidity: 88%||Wind: Calm||Pressure: 29.76 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Windchill: 43 °F||Graphs|
Location: Conway - 35S, Conway, NC
Updated: 9:38 PM EDT
|Temperature: 44.6 °F||Dew Point: 41 °F||Humidity: 86%||Wind: Calm||Pressure: 29.81 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Windchill: 45 °F||Graphs|
MSN Maps of:
|Temp:||Dew Point:||Humidity||Wind||Pressure||Hr Precip||-|
Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia 757 PM EDT Friday Oct 31 2014 Synopsis... weak high pressure will slowly dissipate across the region through tonight. A strong low pressure system will develop off the middle Atlantic coast Saturday and Saturday night before exiting the area on Sunday. High pressure returns for the beginning of next week. && Near term /until 6 am Saturday morning/... the latest surface analysis shows weak high pressure over the Piedmont...with a 1005mb area of low pressure off the NC Outer Banks...which has formed in response to a shortwave trough pushing off the southeast coast. A stronger shortwave trough lags back over the southern Great Lakes and this will become the primary feature into Sat. The leading wave will continue to pull to the NE tonight...as the stronger wave continues to dig south-southeast across the lower Ohio Valley. Overall dry conditions are expected...with increasing middle/high clouds (once afternoon cumulus dissipate) as the local area remains in a region of subsidence between the two systems. 12z high-res data does indicate some moisture could back into the lower Maryland Eastern Shore late tonight seemingly related to a NE fetch associated with a cold conveyor belt. A high chance to low end-likely (50-60%) probability has been included late tonight to account for this. Temperatures should drop into the low/middle 40s late this evening...which should be the eventual overnight lows as temperatures become steady after midnight. && Short term /6 am Saturday morning through Monday/... the overall forecast scenario remains similar. A strong shortwave trough will dig across the Tennessee Valley tonight and across the Carolinas Sat. Good agreement continues with respect to a closed upper low forming off the Carolina coast midday Sat...with surface cyclogenesis off the Outer Banks Sat afternoon/evening. The surface low will quickly lift to the NE later Sat night into Sunday...with ~1032mb surface high pressure building in from the northwest through Sun night. The aforementioned area of subsidence should remain over the area (with the exception of the Eastern Shore and far SW piedmont) through midday Sat. The chance of rain then increases Sat afternoon across NE NC/southeast Virginia as the low develops off the coast. Overall quantitative precipitation forecast amounts will be minimal and generally less than 0.25in. The highest amounts (0.25-0.50in) should be across the Eastern Shore where the duration of rain should be longest. A period of strong north-northeast wind (25-35 miles per hour with gusts to ~45mph) is expected along coastal zones as the low deepens off the coast and strong cold air advection commences. Areas of minor tidal flooding are possible along the Atlantic beaches and lower ches Bay (see coastal flooding section below). A Wind Advisory may be needed over at least some of the coastal zones Sat night for a 6-10 hour period. This will remain highlighted in the severe weather potential statement at this time. Rain will taper off Sat night with subsidence in the wake of the departing wave. The sky clears out quickly into Sunday morning (although a band of SC could develop off the Bay Sunday due to the cooler drier air advecting over SSTs ~62-64f). The surface high of Canadian origin sinks from the Ohio Valley into the southeast beginning Sunday. This will usher in the coolest air of the season to date. Highs Sunday should range from around 50 N/NE...to the middle 50s S. The first widespread freeze of the season should occur late Sun night/early Monday morning as lows drop to 28-32 over the interior coastal plain and Piedmont. Enough surface pressure gradient will likely linger closer to the coast...which will keep lows in the middle/upper 30s. The high shifts offshore Monday...with south-southwest flow resuming across the region. Highs should rebound into the upper 50s/middle 60s under a mostly sunny sky. && Long term /Monday night through Friday/... medium range period characterized by general moderation of temperatures to begin the period as high pressure slides off the southeast coast Tuesday/early Wednesday with resultant south-southwest flow allowing maxima to rebound into the 60s to lower 70s Tuesday and Wednesday, with early morning lows moderating back into the 40s to near 50 Wednesday and Thursday morning. Aloft, upper pattern will be characterized by upper ridging, which will gradually break down and slip offshore late Wed/Thu. Northern stream disturbance traversing the Canadian prairies into the upper Great Lakes during the midweek period, with the associated weak surface front dropping into the area by late Wednesday ngt/Thursday. Once again, the best forcing/dynamics look to remain confined to the north/northeast. Therefore, suspect the frontal passage will once again have little moisture with which to work. Will keep pop no higher than 20% for Wed/Thu...with only a slight drop off in temperature Post frontal late in the into the 60s, with early morning lows near climatology values Friday and Sat mornings. && Aviation /00z Saturday through Wednesday/... the region is between systems as of 00z. Several waves of low pressure are sliding along a stalled front off the coast while a strong upper level disturbance continues to move southeastward through the Ohio Valley. Low pressure off the North Carolina coast will begin to develop overnight and into the day on Saturday. This will strengthen the onshore flow and clouds will develop and lower to MVFR/IFR levels toward sunrise Sat and continuing through the day. As the low strengthens...expect winds to increase to 10 to 15 kts by 12-15z...increasing to 20-25kt by 18z...with gusts to around 30 knots along the coast. The low will pull away from the coast after 06z sun with VFR conditions by 10z...but gusty northwest winds will linger through the day on Sunday. High pressure nudges into the area Sunday night continuing VFR conditions. && Marine... latest observation reflect north-NE winds this afternoon 10-15kt. Surface low pressure has developed along the stalled coastal front oriented offshore. Winds have increased to low end/marginal Small Craft Advisory criteria this afternoon and have raised a Small Craft Advisory over the Lower Bay and sound through early this evening. Winds should diminish for the middle evening hours into early Sat as system pushes farther NE away from the area and farther offshore...to a position off of the New England coast by late tonight. Winds will be ramping up again towards sunrise Sat morning, as low pressure develops rapidly near Hatteras. Winds/waves/seas increase as this low pressure strengthens off the NC CST Saturday in response to a very potent middle-level shortwave trough. Small Craft Advisory over northern coastal waters (added Parramore to Cape Charles Light to existing sca) remains in effect for Saturday before the Gale Warning GOES into effect Saturday night. A period of 5 feet seas is expected over this area, while conditions elsewhere over the Bay and lower James look to deteriorate quickly enough Sat afternoon to warrant going directly to the gale headline. && Tides/coastal flooding... low pressure is expected to rapidly strengthen off the coast late Saturday afternoon into early Sunday morning. Strong north-northwest winds are likely to result in tidal departures on the order of 1-2 feet above normal Saturday night along the Atlantic coast and Lower Bay. Minor tidal flooding is expected for these locations as the surge appears to coincide with the high tide cycle Saturday night/early Sunday morning. && Akq watches/warnings/advisories... Maryland...none. NC...none. Virginia...none. Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM EDT Saturday to 11 PM EST Sunday for anz635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for anz633- 634. Gale Warning from 4 PM EDT Saturday to 7 am EST Sunday for anz630>634-638. Small Craft Advisory from 7 am to 4 PM EDT Saturday for anz650- 652-654. Gale Warning from 4 PM EDT Saturday to 4 PM EST Sunday for anz650-652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 1 am EDT Saturday for anz658. && $$ Synopsis...ajz/alb near term...ajz short term...ajz/alb long term...mam aviation...ess/dap marine...mam tides/coastal flooding...