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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Sunday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 64 °
• T-Storms

• Monday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 63 °
• T-Storms

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 64 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 66 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

• Thursday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 64 °
• Chance of T-Storms

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia 
1246 PM EDT sun may 19 2013 


Synopsis... 
a weak front over southern Virginia and lifting slowly north and will 
dissipate across Maryland on Monday. A ridge of high pressure off 
the southeast coast will dominate into the middle of the week. A 
cold front will pass through the Middle Atlantic States around 
Friday. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
1 PM update...increased probability of precipitation toward the coast over southeast Virginia and NE NC 
where widespread showers are developing in areas that received 
sunshine this morning. 


10am update...made small changes to the forecast and bumped probability of precipitation 
up slightly over southeast portions so that the entire County Warning Area has 
likely showers. Most of the area will remain mostly cloudy to 
cloudy but significant breaks should continue to appear over southeast Virginia 
and NE NC which will promote shower development in the afternoon. Maximum 
temperature forecast remains mostly in the middle to upper 70s with near 
80 degrees expected over interior southeast Virginia. Lowest 
readings will be in northern portions and along the coast. Continued 
with isolated thunder except in portions of the Maryland Eastern Shore. 
Went with isolated due to convergence and cape being weaker than they 
were Saturday. 


Previous discussion... 
latest water vapor imagery continues to show stubborn 
upper low over western Kentucky with a rather broad middle/upper level trough 
situated from Kentucky down into the Carolinas. At the surface...stationary 
front/boundary still located over northern NC. Area of showers and 
embedded thunderstorms developed along the boundary in north central NC 
earlier this morning...but have since weakened as they moved north 
into the region. Cloud tops have warmed...but a few shallow 
showers ongoing over the Eastern Shore...aided by middle level 
energy/shortwave. RUC 700 mb Omega handles this area of showers 
well...with the showers pushing offshore in the next few hours. In 
addition...very moist boundary layer...warm air advection and calm winds have 
resulted in areas of fog this morning...with some visibilities as 
low as half a mile in the Richmond area. 


Additional weak impulses will eject eastward from the dying upper low 
into a warm/moist airmass...with the first arriving later this 
morning. Cooling cloud tops already observed this morning over western 
NC. Precipitation waters still around 1.5 inches (+1 Standard dev). Expect 
showers to increase in coverage across the eastern Virginia Piedmont by middle 
morning. For this afternoon...weakening upper low will remain in 
the vicinity of western Kentucky as the boundary begins to lift northward as a 
warm front. Shortwave will lift through Virginia...combining with weak 
divergence aloft to provide forcing for ascent...albeit weak. 
However...with abundant moisture in place...it will be enough to 
trigger additional showers this afternoon...mainly across the 
Piedmont into central Virginia. Instability will be limited...but good low 
level lapse rates and Theta-E advection will be enough for 
scattered afternoon thunderstorms....mainly across southern Virginia. S/southeast 
flow will limit the amount of instability along the coast and over 
the Eastern Shore. Middle level wind fields are rather weak...so the 
main threat from thunderstorms will be heavy rain. 


Another cloudy/wet day will prevent temperatures from reaching their full 
potential...with highs generally in the middle/upper 70s. Colder 
along the immediate coast and over the Eastern Shore. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Tuesday/... 
remnants of the upper low will eject over the Appalachians Sunday 
night into Monday as a potent upper trough reaches the Midwest. At 
the surface...warm front will locate north of the forecast area Monday afternoon 
as high pressure located over the western Atlantic extends westward into 
the Lower Middle Atlantic and southeast states. Warm/moist airmass will 
build in as S/SW flow advects deep moist from the Atlantic...with 
precipitation water values approaching +1.5 Standard dev. Weak shortwave and 
divergence aloft will provide subtle forcing for ascent...but 
expect most forcing and resultant convection to be diurnally 
driven. While Theta-E advection and warm temperatures will provide 
marginal instability (500-1000 j/kg cape)...a weakening middle level 
wind field will provide limited shear. The result will be 
scattered thunderstorms with very little organization. The 
shortwave axis prognosticated to be around the eastern Virginia Piedmont...with the 
best chances for showers/thunderstorms being to the east of the 
axis over central and eastern Virginia. 


Trough axis will locate along the coast Tuesday as the central Continental U.S. 
Trough amplifies the upper ridge over the east. Residual moisture 
and subtle uvm will be sufficient for showers along the coast 
Tuesday afternoon. Dewpoints in the middle 60s and afternoon temperatures in 
the low/middle 80s will result in greater instability (~1500 j/kg 
cape and ~-6 lifted index) for convection/thunderstorms. Forcing 
will be mostly diurnally driven. However...shear remains weak so 
expect no organized thunderstorms. 


Near seasonable normal temperatures Monday (upper 70s/low 80s) before a 
warming trend Tuesday. Increasing heights/thicknesses...as well as 
850 temperatures approaching +1 Standard dev...will result in temperatures generally 
in the middle 80s. 


&& 


Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/... 
models similar over this time period with the timing of another trough 
deeping at 500 mb toward Friday and Saturday. This will usher a 
stronger cold front through the region Friday into Saturday. The 
front will have some showers and thunderstorms with it as it moves 
through. Before that a frontal boundary remains nearly stationary 
across the Great Lakes and New England. South of this area will have 
general south to southwest flow across the area. Could see an 
isolated afternoon thunderstorm. Any thunderstorms that form north 
along the boundary could push into the northern part of the area 
during the evenings. Temperatures will be at or above normal until 
the front passes. Then temperatures will drop back on Saturday to at 
or below normal. 


&& 


Aviation /18z Sunday through Friday/... 
a mix of VFR to IFR conditions from ecg and orf north and northwest to ric 
and sby. A few holes in the cloud deck at ecg and orf has allowed 
conditions at both location to improve to VFR as of 12z. Periodic 
IFR conditions will be possible at orf through 15z but trend tat 
orf will be towards VFR with occasional MVFR in showers at orf 
from late morning through the afternoon. Locations from phf to ric 
and sby will hold onto IFR conditions a bit longer. Phf should 
improve to MVFR and VFR middle to late morning. Conditions will be 
slower to improve at ric and sby where IFR conditions may linger 
through 16z. 


Most of the high res models suggests that precipitation focus will shift 
to the north and west this afternoon as warm front lifts 
northward ahead of weakening upper trough from the Tennessee Valley. This should 
limit precipitation coverage at terminals in the 12z-00z time 
frame...although scattered showers/isolated thunderstorm possible at ksby through 18z...and 
at kric after 21z. 


Region in warm sector Monday through Wednesday with scattered...more 
diurnal...shwr/tstm activity...but mainly VFR/MVFR conditions. 


&& 


Marine... 
S/southeast winds prevail across the marine area this morning...with 
speeds below Small Craft Advisory criteria everywhere even into the afternoon. Winds 
generally 10 knots through late morning increasing to 10-15kt on the 
Bay/rivers/sound...and 10-20 knots on the ocean /highest north of Cape 
Charles Light/. These conditions expected to persist next 2-3 
days...before winds become south-southwesterly/southwesterly in the Tuesday time frame. 


Seas on the coastal waters continue to run around 4-5 feet and 
have been slowly decreasing over the last few hours. Wind forecasts 
do not appear to be sufficient to cause seas to increase to 5+ 
feet. However...wavewatch guidance persists in placing most of the 
coastal waters in 5-6 foot seas today/tonight. Will maintain Small Craft Advisory 
for the northern 2 coastal zones for seas through 00z Monday as winds may 
temporarily increase this afternoon pushing seas in the north of 
near 5 feet. Seas expected to subside below 5 feet after 00z Monday. 


&& 


Hydrology... 
river level forecasts have been lowered substantially due to lack 
of significant rainfall in the headwaters. 


&& 


Akq watches/warnings/advisories... 
Maryland...none. 
NC...none. 
Virginia...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for anz650. 
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for anz652. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...lkb/lsa 
near term...Sam/lsa 
short term...Sam 
long term...jab 
aviation...jao/wrs 
marine...worse 
hydrology...