Updated: 11:17 AM EST on January 04, 2015
Sunshine and clouds mixed. High near 75F. Winds SW at 10 to 15 mph.
Partly cloudy skies during the evening will give way to cloudy skies and light rain after midnight. Low 46F. Winds SSW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 80%.
Occasional rain...some freezing rain late. High 43F. Winds NNE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precip 100%.
A wintry mix in the evening will give way to partly cloudy skies late. Near record low temperatures. Low 21F. Winds NNE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precip 90%. Snow and ice accumulations less than one inch.
Mostly sunny skies. High 31F. Winds NNE at 5 to 10 mph.
Clear. Low around 20F. Winds light and variable.
Mostly sunny skies. High 46F. Winds light and variable.
A mostly clear sky. Low 27F. Winds light and variable.
Sunshine and clouds mixed. High near 50F. Winds light and variable.
A few clouds from time to time. Low 31F. Winds light and variable.
Mostly cloudy skies early, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. High around 55F. Winds light and variable.
Partly cloudy during the evening. A few showers developing later during the night. Low 34F. Winds light and variable. Chance of rain 30%.
Cloudy with a few showers. High 59F. Winds light and variable. Chance of rain 40%.
A few showers early with mostly cloudy conditions late. Low 39F. Winds light and variable. Chance of rain 30%.
Partly cloudy skies early. A few showers developing later in the day. High 64F. Winds light and variable. Chance of rain 30%.
Partly cloudy skies. Low 46F. Winds light and variable.
A mix of clouds and sun early, then becoming cloudy later in the day. High 67F. Winds light and variable.
Considerable cloudiness. Occasional rain showers later at night. Low near 45F. Winds light and variable. Chance of rain 40%.
Showers early, becoming a steady rain later in the day. High 57F. Winds E at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60%. Rainfall around a quarter of an inch.
Rain. Low around 40F. Winds NE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60%. Rainfall near a quarter of an inch.
Rain likely. High 48F. Winds NE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60%. Rainfall around a quarter of an inch.
Rain. Low 44F. Winds NE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60%. Rainfall around a quarter of an inch.
Between 6 PM and 630 PM today... and normally the first Wednesday of
each month... we will conduct an additional test of the all hazards
NOAA Weather Radio alarm system for our evening listeners. Persons
with alarms on their radios... are asked to ensure that these are
turned on... to confirm that the test was received. Again... the alarm
test will be conducted between 6 PM and 630 PM today. This test may
be cancelled without notice in the event of rapidly developing
warning or watch conditions... which require the Wakefield office to
shift into a higher alert Mode.
Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]
Location: Nowell Farm Road, Colerain, NC
Updated: 1:45 PM EST
|Temperature: 69.4 °F||Dew Point: 63 °F||Humidity: 80%||Wind: SW at 7.2 mph||Pressure: 29.69 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Graphs|
Location: Ashley's Grove, Conway, NC
Updated: 1:45 PM EST
|Temperature: 66.5 °F||Dew Point: 61 °F||Humidity: 83%||Wind: South at 3.0 mph||Pressure: 29.88 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Graphs|
Location: Conway - 35S, Conway, NC
Updated: 1:45 PM EST
|Temperature: 64.4 °F||Dew Point: 58 °F||Humidity: 79%||Wind: SSW at 8.0 mph||Pressure: 29.91 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Graphs|
Location: RAWS GREENS CROSS NC US, Windsor, NC
Updated: 1:17 PM EST
|Temperature: 70 °F||Dew Point: 62 °F||Humidity: 75%||Wind: WSW at 9 mph||Pressure: 30.19 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Graphs|
MSN Maps of:
|Temp:||Dew Point:||Humidity||Wind||Pressure||Hr Precip||-|
Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia 1051 am EST Wednesday Mar 4 2015 Synopsis... a warm front lingers over the northern middle Atlantic this morning...with a cold front slowly crossing the region later this afternoon through tonight. The front will stall over North Carolina on Thursday...with a wave of low pressure moving along the front into Thursday night. This will bring another round of wintry weather to the area...followed by cold and dry conditions by Friday. && Near term /through tonight/... quick update to reflect issuance of Winter Storm Watch over Wicomico/Dorchester counties in Maryland. Incoming 12z guidance bolstering forecast confidence of the going forecast...outlined in the short term section below. Forecast confidence for winter storm headlines is sufficient to justify watch over these areas. Will make advisory/warning decisions this afternoon as 12z data continues to filter in. Previous discussion sent 706 am EST... the current surface analysis shows a quasi-stationary frontal boundary lingering from the Tennessee Valley through the northern middle- Atlantic with a residual wedge airmass in place to the Lee of the mountains. The frontal boundary is situated in between Arctic high pressure building over the Central Plains and high pressure off the coast...and is aligned nearly parallel to the upper level flow and hence it will move very little today. Stratus will linger through at least middle- morning...with areas of fog early...especially over southeast Virginia/NE NC. High temperatures will be very challenging today. There is a potential that far northern portions stay in the upper 40s...with low 70s across southern portions. Central portions could experience a spread of at least 10-15f depending on the eventual position of the frontal boundary. The highest probability of precipitation today will be across the far northern tier counties in closer proximity to the boundary...with a sharp gradient across central portions that tapers to 10-20% across S/southeast portions. && Short term /Thursday through Friday/... a cold front presently back over the Ohio Valley drops into the area this evening and tracks north-northwest-south-southeast across the area overnight into Thursday morning. Meanwhile...a wave of low pressure develops along the front and tracks across the Carolinas Wednesday night into Thursday. Much colder air arrives behind the front with most of the area falling into the upper 20s/low 30s by Thursday afternoon. Forecast soundings show dry air lingering between 600-400mb tonight...so any precipitation (in the form of -ra) will be light. A strong anti-cyclonic jet is presently located from the middle-Mississippi Valley through Atlantic Canada. This jet structure will translate eastward through Thursday as a strong trough digs across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes by later Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon. It is at this time that deeper moisture will arrive and rrq forcing will be idealized and trigger the onset of wintry precipitation from northwest-southeast across the area. It is not until 21z Thursday to 00z Friday that sub 1540m 850-700mb thickness values arrive into northwest portions of the area. However...by this time the strongest uvm will be exiting the coast. Overall it appears that slr values will be low (perhaps 5:1-8:1) given that there will be a period of sleet...and that middle-level thicknesses will be 'warm' during the strongest forcing. The current forecast has a narrow band of 3-4" from Louisa County to Dorchester County bordered by a band of 2-3" for other portions of the northwest Piedmont...Northern Neck...and lower Maryland Eastern Shore. Currently 1-2" is forecast from the ric metropolitan down through Hampton Roads...with 1" or less farther S. A brief period of freezing rain is possible during the transition from rain to snow/ice pellets with any ice accumulate only trace to a few hundredths of an inch. Confidence is not high enough for a watch across the far north at this time given that this is a later third period event...so this will continued to be highlighted in the severe weather potential statement. Wintry precipitation should taper off Thursday evening...with drier air arriving from the northwest during the late evening. Temperatures will continue to plummet with lows Friday morning ranging from the low teens northwest...to low 20s southeast. Highs Friday will struggle to reach 30-35 Friday under a mostly sunny sky. && Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/... extended period will be highlighted by generally dry conditions and a return to near seasonable normal temperatures. Medium range guidance in general consensus with the upper flow through the extended...characterized by ridging/blocking over the western Continental U.S./Eastern Pacific and broad troughing over the central and eastern Continental U.S.. to begin the period...cold/dry 1030+mb Arctic high pressure centers over the middle-Atlantic region. Thursdays cold front locates off the coast...extending southwestward into the northern Gulf. 850 mb temperatures drop to around -8c Friday (~-1 Standard dev)...slightly warmer than depicted 24 hours ago. Highs Friday generally in the low-middle 30s inland and upper 20s-low 30s coastal areas. Airmass modifies Friday night-Sat as the cold/dry air retreats northward. High pressure remains over the region Sat...with light return flow helping to moderate low level thicknesses. Temperatures warm into the upper 40s-low 50s inland and low- middle 40s coastal areas. Sky average mostly sunny-partly cloudy. High pressure remains over the region sun...resulting in continued dry and warming conditions. Highs in the low-middle 50s inland and low 40s to upper 40s coastal areas. Attention then turns out west...where models continue to struggle handling split/blocky flow and southern stream energy over the desert SW/baja. Good news is that now the deterministic European model (ecmwf) has trended dry Sun night-early next week...matching the GFS and ensembles. However...split flow continues resulting in low confidence early next week. Front over the Gulf will attempt to amplify and lift northward as southern stream energy approaches...but will keep probability of precipitation silent. Highs early next week (mon and tues) continue to warm into the middle 50s inland and low-upper 40s coastal areas thanks to cold water. && Aviation /16z Wednesday through Sunday/... as of 12z...IFR/LIFR conds are found throughout the area with a warm front in the vicinity and very moist low levels. The chance of -ra has diminished this morng but there is still some areas of -dz. SW winds gusting up to 20-25 knots will continue today ahead of an approaching cold front. Some improvement in ceilings is expected this afternoon at most taf sites...but IFR/MVFR is still possible. The cold front drops into the area this eveng into tonight...with rain and LIFR/IFR conds expected. During the day Thursday...the precipitation becomes snow northern portions and mixed precipitation southern portions. Precipitation becomes mainly snow Thursday evening before ending from the northwest. Any snow accumulations are expected to be around 1-3 in on average...with possibly more at ksby. A gusty northerly wind will develop along the coast Thursday. High pressure then builds in with dry weather Friday through Sunday. && Marine... have extended dense fog advisories northward to include the entire Bay...eastern Virginia Rives and coastal waters to Chincoteague as warm air advection overspreads cold waters. Warm air advection will wane through the afternoon...allowing visibilities to improve. May need to extend the dense fog headlines with the next update. SW winds have diminished this morning as the strongest gradient winds push offshore. Seas have subsided below 5 feet except in the southern coastal waters where southeast swell has helped maintain Small Craft Advisory conditions. Have opted to issue Small Craft Advisory headlines south of Cape Charles Light for today...as seas will remain 4-5 feet. Previous discussion... a cold front approaches from the west today with S/SW flow continuing out ahead of the front. Winds may come close to Small Craft Advisory thresholds this morng over the Lower Bay due to a strong low level jet...but warm air advection and cold waters will cause a sharp inversion that should keep sustained winds up to ~15 knots there. Issued a dense fog advisory for coastal waters S of Cape Charles Light due to expected visibilities at or below 1 Michigan through the midday hours in association with very moist low levels. The front slowly drops through the area late today into tonight as a wave of low pressure develops along the front. As the front finally pushes S of the area tonight...Small Craft Advisory conds will commence over the waters. These conds will continue into Thursday night as well so extended the headlines into the 4th period. Winds may come close to gale force over southern coastal waters but confidence is not hi enough to issue a gale watch/warng at this time. Also kept all river zones except the lower James out of the advisory for now but will continue to monitor. Waves over the Bay up to 4-5 feet with seas over coastal waters up to 7-8 feet. Surface hi pressure then builds in for Friday into the weekend leading to improving marine conds. && Akq watches/warnings/advisories... Maryland...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Thursday evening for mdz021-022. NC...none. Virginia...none. Marine...dense fog advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for anz630>638-652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 4 am Thursday to 4 am EST Friday for anz630>632-634-650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory from 7 am Thursday to 4 am EST Friday for anz633-638. Small Craft Advisory until 4 am EST Friday for anz656-658. && $$ Synopsis...ajz/lkb near term...ajz/mam short term...ajz long term...Sam aviation...mas marine...mas/Sam