Updated: 4:00 AM EST on January 26, 2015
Overcast with a chance of rain. High of 50F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
Overcast with a chance of rain, then a chance of snow and a chance of rain after midnight. Fog overnight. Low of 30F. Winds from the NNW at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 50% .
Overcast with a chance of snow in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. High of 45F. Winds from the NW at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 30% .
Partly cloudy in the evening, then clear. Low of 27F with a windchill as low as 19F. Winds from the NW at 5 to 10 mph.
Clear. High of 43F. Winds from the NNW at 10 to 15 mph.
Clear. Low of 21F. Winds from the NNE at 5 to 10 mph shifting to the East after midnight.
Partly cloudy. High of 46F. Breezy. Winds from the South at 10 to 20 mph.
Overcast in the evening, then partly cloudy. Fog overnight. Low of 37F with a windchill as low as 25F. Breezy. Winds from the SW at 15 to 20 mph.
Partly cloudy in the morning, then clear. High of 50F. Breezy. Winds from the NW at 15 to 25 mph.
Clear. Low of 25F with a windchill as low as 14F. Winds from the NNE at 10 to 15 mph.
Clear. High of 41F. Winds from the NE at 5 to 15 mph.
Clear. Low of 27F. Winds from the East at 5 to 10 mph.
Clear. High of 52F. Winds from the North at 5 to 10 mph.
Clear. Low of 27F. Winds from the SSE at 5 to 10 mph.
Clear. Fog early. High of 37F with a windchill as low as 23F. Winds from the West at 5 to 15 mph.
Clear. Fog overnight. Low of 23F. Winds from the WNW at 5 to 10 mph.
Clear. Fog early. High of 36F. Winds from the WNW at 5 to 10 mph.
Clear. Low of 25F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Clear. High of 41F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Clear. Low of 34F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Clear. High of 45F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Clear. Low of 34F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]
Location: Nowell Farm Road, Colerain, NC
Updated: 5:20 AM EST
|Temperature: 41.4 °F||Dew Point: 41 °F||Humidity: 99%||Wind: ESE at 3.4 mph||Pressure: 29.46 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Windchill: 40 °F||Graphs|
Location: Ashley's Grove, Conway, NC
Updated: 5:20 AM EST
|Temperature: 37.4 °F||Dew Point: 36 °F||Humidity: 94%||Wind: Calm||Pressure: 29.67 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Windchill: 37 °F||Graphs|
Location: Conway - 35S, Conway, NC
Updated: 5:20 AM EST
|Temperature: 37.7 °F||Dew Point: 35 °F||Humidity: 89%||Wind: Calm||Pressure: 29.70 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Windchill: 38 °F||Graphs|
Location: APRSWXNET Conway NC US, Conway, NC
Updated: 4:40 AM EST
|Temperature: 38 °F||Dew Point: 35 °F||Humidity: 89%||Wind: SE at 1 mph||Pressure: 29.71 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Windchill: 38 °F||Graphs|
Location: RAWS GREENS CROSS NC US, Windsor, NC
Updated: 4:17 AM EST
|Temperature: 34 °F||Dew Point: 34 °F||Humidity: 100%||Wind: East at 1 mph||Pressure: 29.99 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Windchill: 34 °F||Graphs|
MSN Maps of:
|Temp:||Dew Point:||Humidity||Wind||Pressure||Hr Precip||-|
Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia 508 am EST Monday Jan 26 2015 Synopsis... low pressure over southwest Virginia early this morning will weaken this morning...while a new low pressure system will develop off the North Carolina coast by early this afternoon. This low will then rapidly intensify as it tracks north northeast off the middle Atlantic and New England coasts this afternoon through Tuesday. The low will move away to the northeast Tuesday night and Wednesday...as high pressure builds in from the northwest. && Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... early this morng...area of rain was moving into western and northern counties in advance of surface low over SW Virginia and upper trough pushing across the mountains the low will weaken this morng...while a new low pressure system will develop off the NC CST by early this afternoon. That low will then rapidly intensify off the middle Atlantic CST into this eveng. Combination of the surface low re-development and upper trough swinging across the region will result in chances for rain today into this eveng. Highest probability of precipitation (60-80%) will be over the northern half of the area where best lift will be...with 30-40% probability of precipitation over the southern half. Temperatures will warm a bit into early afternoon despite cloud cover...possible precipitation as winds will be generally from the east. Hi temperatures will range from the lower 40s northwest to the middle 50s over NE NC. && Short term /6 PM this evening through Wednesday/... will favor a blend of the 12z NAM/European model (ecmwf) for this period. The main event for our area begins tonight...as colder air plunges south in response to rapid intensification of the surface low off the Virginia coast. Still mainly rain across the southern 2/3 of the County Warning Area in the evening...becoming all snow between 03-06z for most locations. During this time...best lift/frontogenesis will reside off the coast. Will be relying on deformation zone and intense banding developing from the Delaware-Maryland-Virginia to log island to "wrap around" and drop south for most of our snow into the day Tuesday. Thus...snow amounts will show a sharp cutoff. Any change in position of this banding can have drastic effects on snow amounts...so uncertainty remains rather high. Have forecast roughly 3-6" of snow on the Maryland Eastern Shore in the watch area...with 2-3" across Northern Neck/Virginia Eastern Shore (areas that will probably need an advisory)...tapered fairly quick to < 1" over most of the remainder of the County Warning Area. Could see slightly more than 1" across Hampton Roads early Tuesday however. Snow is expected to taper off late Tuesday morning/aftn...but if European model (ecmwf) is correct this would be slower and additional snow amounts may need to be added. Mav/met guidance looks too warm Tuesday...especially across the NE. Expect highs in the lower 30s NE to around 40 f SW. Clearing/cold Tuesday night/Wednesday with lows in the upper teens to middle 20s and highs on Wednesday in lower 40s SW to the lower 30s NE. && Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/... long term period will feature below normal temperatures with dry weather most days. For Wednesday night...surface hi pressure builds over the middle Atlantic and southeast states as the next low pressure systm approaches from the west. With a mostly clear sky and light winds...temperatures will fall into the middle 20s in most spots. Low pressure and an associated middle-level vorticity maximum will bring precipitation (plain rain) into the area starting late Thursday. Favored the slightly slower European model (ecmwf) solution...with a 30% chance of precipitation (ra/snow north and rain south) Thursday night...with low temperatures in the low to middle 30s. Conds then dry out into Friday and Sat as surface hi pressure builds in from the west. Expect a prtly cloudy sky both days with northwest winds and hi temperatures falling from the 40s on Friday to the middle 30s to lower 40s on Sat. && Aviation /10z Monday through Friday/... as of 06z...VFR conditions across area terminals will continue into Monday morning. Middle and high level clouds slowly increase over the next few hours, with cloud bases lowering later this morning...first over ric/sby through 15z...then by late morning/afternoon over phf/orf/ecg. Light rain is forecast to develop mainly at ric this morning...with vcsh wording at sby by late morning. Blended current probability of precipitation with some of the guidance for starting times of precipitation. Ceilings and visibilities lower to MVFR and in some cases IFR during the afternoon except at ecg. The lowest conditions for this taf period and beyond appear to be lining up for sby where NE winds will also become gusty. Outlook...rain changes to snow during the late evening hours Monday into early morning hours of Tuesday (02-06z/tuesday) and continues trough midday Tuesday. Snow may be heavy at times at sby through Tuesday morning where accumulating snowfallis currently forecast. Elsewhere, a light accumulation of snowfall is expected at ric/phf/orf with only a trace amts of snow expected at ecg. IFR conditions are expected by late afternoon and through the evening at sby and will continue overnight Monday especially during periods of accumulating snow. IFR conds will be possible Monday night at phf/orf/ecg, mainly towards the end of the taf period and into Tuesday morning. Dry and mainly VFR conds are expected during the rest of the week. There will be a chance for precipitation late in the week mainly on Thursday night. && Marine... gale watch headline has been converted to small carft advisory through Wed, with Gale Warning remaining in effect for northern coastal waters. East-southeast flow over the waters will back to the east-NE early this morning and evenuallt to the northwest later today. Surface low will redevelop off the Carolina CST late today, and will intensify as it slowly lifts NE into tonight. High confidence for gales continues over northern zones on the back side of the rapidly deepening surface low. Sca's over remaindr of the waters as flow becomes northwest and increases to 20-25kt. Rapid ramp up of winds will quickly build seas to 6-9 feet south and 8-10 feet north, west/ at least 12 feet out 20nm over northern coastal waters. Waves in the ches Bay up to 5-6 feet late tonight/Tuesday morning. Northwest flow and low end Small Craft Advisory conds look to continue into Wednesday morning as surface hi pressure slowly builds in from the west. Sub-Small Craft Advisory conds then for Wednesday night/Thu. && Tides/coastal flooding... low pressure intensifies rapidly off the middle-Atlantic coast tonight night/Tuesday. The result will be a period of strong northerly winds over the waters. Tidal anomalies are expected to reach 1 to 1.5 feet...possibly higher...during Monday night and Tuesday mornings high tide cycles. Sites in the Lower Bay will reach highest astro tide with water levels approaching minor flooding thresholds at Sewells Point tonight. For Ocean City...minor flooding is expected with new guidance indicating an increased chance for moderate. Have gone ahead with coastal Flood Watch for Worcester County in vicinity of Ocean City for tonight. This will give the day crew one more opportunity to peruse latest guidance and either go with advisory or upgrade to warning later today. Another period of high anomalies are expected again Tuesday...before anomalies drop off Tuesday night/Wednesday as the low lifts away from the region. && Akq watches/warnings/advisories... Maryland...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to noon EST Tuesday for mdz021>025. Coastal Flood Watch from this evening through late tonight for mdz024-025. NC...none. Virginia...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to noon EST Tuesday for vaz080-081-087>090-092-093. Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 am EST Tuesday for vaz048-049-061-062-068-069. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 am to noon EST Tuesday for vaz091-094>098. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to noon EST Tuesday for vaz073>078-084>086-099-100. Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to noon EST Tuesday for vaz063-064-070>072-082-083. Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST Wednesday for anz630>634-654-656-658. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST Tuesday for anz650-652. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to noon EST Wednesday for anz635>638. && $$ Synopsis...tmg near term...tmg short term...lkb/tmg long term...mas aviation...mam marine...mam tides/coastal flooding...mam