297 
FXUS61 KAKQ 220135
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
835 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST...WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO A POSITION
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST UP THE
EAST COAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC HI PRES OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES/WESTERN NY. TO THE SOUTH...DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRESSURE NOTED
THIS EVENING ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. ALOFT...UPR
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS HAS NOSED EAST INTO THE
UPPER MS VLY. MEANWHILE...A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM UPR LOW WAS
NOTED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION.

OVERNIGHT...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST...WITH ONLY SOME
TWEAKS TO SKY/T GRIDS ATTM. SFC HIGH TO THE NW WILL SLIDE E
TOWARDS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO SUN MORNING. DRY AND CHILLY TNGT WITH
A GOOD DEAL OF HI CLDS PERSISTING...MAINTAINING MAINLY PARTLY CLDY
CONDS. MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S...BUT AGAIN WL
LKLY SEE SOME COOLER LOWS NW OF RIC AND OVER INTR SECTIONS OF THE
LOWER EASTERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF NOW IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE SHRT TERM WITH
THE ONSET OF CSTL LO PCPN NOW DELAYED UNTIL SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG.
HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND POPS ACCORDINGLY. SO...WILL LIKELY
SEE AT LEAST SOME OPAQUE SUNSHINE ALL AREAS DURING SUNDAY
MORNING...W/CLDS INCREASING AND THICKENING FM S TO N FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SUN AFTN INTO SUN NGT. MAX TEMPS ON SUN IN THE MID
50S TO LWR 60S. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY FM S TO N LTR SUN NGT INTO
MON MORNG...AS LO PRES MOVES TO JUST OFF THE SE CST.

RAIN THEN LIKELY ALL AREAS DURING MON...AS THE LO TRACKS TO JUST
ESE OF HAT. HIGHS ON MON RANGING THRU THE 50S TO LWR 60S. DIMINISHING
RAIN CHCS FM SW TO NE MON NGT INTO TUE MORNG...AS THE LO TRACKS
FARTHER AWAY TO THE ENE. DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMTS
FM THIS SYSTEM...WITH QPF ARND .25 INCH MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY
ARND .50 INCH CLSR TO THE CST.

CLDY OR MSTLY CLDY TUE MORNG...THEN BECMG PRTLY SNY OVR AT LEAST
SE VA AND NE NC TUE AFTN. MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY TUE NIGHT/WED...GFS/ECMWF SHOW RIDGING IN THE MID LVLS OFF THE
EAST COAST...WITH A FAIRLY WEAK SFC PRESSURE PATTERN ACRS THE MID
ATLC. NOT MUCH OF A TRIGGER FOR ANY PRECIP...BUT LOW LVL
CLOUDINESS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO SCOUR OUT. OVERALL WILL KEEP THE
FCST DRY TUE NGT/WED...BRINGING IN 20% CHC FOR -RA FROM W TO E
LATER WED/WED NGT....AS WEAK OVERRUNNING SCENARIO SETS UP. STILL A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY W/ THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AFTER
THAT...GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TWDS EACH
OTHER...DEVELOPING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SE COAST
THANKSGIVING DAY...AND TRACKING IT OFF THE VA CAPES/MID ATLC COAST
THU NGT/FRI. MEANWHILE...THE MAIN UPR LOW ENERGY REMAINS WELL OFF
TO OUR NORTH. HAVE BUMPED FCST UP TO 30% CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER SE
VA/NE NC (ALTHOUGH BULK OF PRECIP STAYS OFFSHORE OR TO THE SOUTH
FOR NOW). FOR CNTRL VA...KEEPING POPS CAPPED IN 20% RANGE PER MORE
OF A SPLIT FLOW. 

FLOW TURNS WESTERLY ON BOTH MODELS BY LATER THU NGT/FRI...AND
SHOULD SEE DRIER AND COOLER WX FOR FRI/SAT. SOME MODEL
DISCREPANCIES IN THE POSITION OF THE UPR LOW...BUT WILL KEEP IT
DRY FOR NOW AS THE CONSENSUS IS FOR MAIN ENERGY TO STAY OVER THE
NE CONUS. HIGH TEMPERATURES GNLY IN THE UPR 50S/LWR 60S
WED/THU...COOLING TO THE MID/UPR 50S FRI...AND LWR/MID 50S SAT.
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LWR 50S WED/THU...THEN 30S TO LWR 40S
FRI/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WERE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN. A BAND OF STRATOCU WITH 
CIGS OF 050 NW OF RIC WAS SPREADING SE BUT APPEARS ON STLT TO BE 
DISSIPATING. WILL CARRY SCT CLOUDS AT RIC AND SBY.

IT APPEARS THAT TEMPS WILL NOT DROP LOW ENOUGH OVERNIGHT FOR FOG BUT 
WILL NEED TO WATCH SBY LOOKING AT NAM BUFR SOUNDING. LEFT OUT OF TAF 
FOR NOW.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO THICKEN ON SUN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. 
CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR SUN NIGHT AND MON. HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH VFR CONDS FOR TUE AND WED. THE NEXT WX 
SYSTEM MAY BRING A RETURN OF LWR CEILINGS AND A CHC FOR PCPN ON THU.

&&

.MARINE...
CNDTNS CONTINUE BELOW SCA LVLS TONIGHT AND ERLY SUNDAY (MAINLY
10-15 KT ALTHOUGH A TAD STRONGER OVER THE SOUTH). CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE ON SUNDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES WELL OFF TO THE
NE...AND LOW PRS ALONG THE SRN STATES MOVES SLOWLY NE LATE SUN
INTO ERLY NXT WEEK. WITH THE PRS GRDNT PROGGED TO INCRS AFTR 18Z
SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH HEADLINES FOR SCA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE
CHES BAY ON S AND FOR THE CSTL WATERS (AS SEAS BUILD TO 5+ FT). 

NAM/GFS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT W/ THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS
SYSTM (GFS HAS TRENDED SLOWER)...AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT A
PERIOD OF AT LEAST 25 KT WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP FOR THE CSTL WATERS
AND SRN BAY. CONCERNED WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH INTO NEW
ENGLAND (BOTH NAM/GFS DEPICT 1035 MB+). EVEN THOUGH THE SFC LOW OFF
THE CAROLIN AS IS ONLY PROGGED TO BE ARND 1015 MB...THIS SYNOPTIC
PATTERN TENDS TO YIELD STRONGER WINDS THAN THOSE PREDICTED BY THE
MODELS. FOR NOW HAVE BUMPED WINDS TO A SOLID 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO
30 KT ON THE COAST...AND GONE A BIT HIGHER THAN WAVE WATCH FOR SEAS
(UP TO 9 FT OFFSHORE). MAY EVEN SEE A 3-6 HR PERIOD OF GALES ON
MONDAY (BUT WILL STAY W/ SCA FOR NOW). WILL END THE SCA HEADLINES
MON AFTN (AT THE END OF THE 4TH PROD)...ALTHOUGH LT ST WAVE WATCH HAS
SEAS AA 5 FT THRU MIDWEEK W/ RESIDUAL SWELL.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR 
     ANZ632-633-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR 
     ANZ630-631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG/MAM
NEAR TERM...TMG/MAM
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB