100 
FXUS64 KMRX 212000
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
300 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED ALONG 
THE SOUTH LOUISIANA COAST AT 19Z...CONTINUES TO PUSH MID-HIGH LEVEL 
CLOUDS NORTH TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. WILL SEE A GRADUAL 
INCREASE IN MID- HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO 
THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. WOULD NOT ALSO RULE OUT A STRAY 
-SHRA/RA TOWARD SUNRISE IN SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. TEMPS LOOK 
GENERALLY GOOD AS PER GOING FORECAST...AND LIKE GFS/NAM SOLUTION FOR 
SOUTHWEST VIRGINA/TRI CITIES AREA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS 
THERE. WILL DROP PRECIP CHANCES DOWN CONSIDERABLY FORECAST AREA WIDE 
TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER SOLUTION BASED UPON CURRENT TRENDING 
AND AS PER GFS/NAM MODELS.

GFS/NAM MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF THE
PRECIP MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. WILL FOLLOW A
COMPROMISE MORE TOWARD THE SREF MODEL AND IN BETWEEN GFS/NAM
SOLUTION FOR SUNDAY. WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH CHANCE POPS BEING
THE RULE FROM JUST NORTH TO TYS-IN BETWEEN CHA/TYS. WILL GO WITH
POPS BECOMING MORE TOWARD THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR CHA AREA AND
SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON. 

TEMPS LOOK GENERALLY GOOD AS PER GOING FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...AND
ACCEPTED AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...WEAKENING GULF COAST 
SYSTEM SHOULD BE CENTERED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY 
EVENING WITH MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS EAST TN AND SW NC AND FINALLY 
INTO SW VA. SYSTEM WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION 
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SO HELD ON TO HIGHER POPS MONDAY. BEST 
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. GFS HAS WEAK 
UPPER LOW ACROSS MIDDLE TN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAINFALL FAIRLY UNIFORM 
ACROSS FORECAST AREA BUT NAM MODEL HAS HIGHER AMOUNTS EAST CLOSER TO 
WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT REDEVELOPS OFF SE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND 
MONDAY. PREFER THE NAM SOLUTION WITH HIGHER POPS EAST THEN SHIFTING 
TO NORTHEAST EARLY MONDAY AND LARGER QPF NUMBERS EAST IN THE 
MOUNTAINS. MODELS HINT AT BRIEF RIDGING TUESDAY AND THEN A QUICK 
MOVING SYSTEM FROM THE NW TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY DRIES OUT AGAIN 
BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM THAT IS QUICK ON ITS HEELS SHOULD AFFECT THE 
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY LONGER. SNOW 
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT WITH FREEZING LEVELS LOWERING AS A 
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             43  55  45  58  45 /  30  60  30  20  10 
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  41  55  43  57  42 /  20  60  40  20  10 
OAK RIDGE, TN                       40  55  44  57  43 /  20  60  40  20  10 
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              34  54  41  55  39 /  10  50  50  30  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TT/TD