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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas 
902 PM CST Sat Nov 21 2009 


Update... 
current forecast is in good shape but will make some minor 
adjustments to skies as low clouds slow to erode across the 
western half of the County Warning Area. Guidance suggests that clouds will linger 
through much of the night out west...so have kept mostly cloudy 
through early Sunday morning. Surface observation indicating visibilities 
generally above 5sm most locations...but should see some areas of 
fog develop later with calm winds and moist grounds. 
Otherwise...only a few tweaks to hourly temperatures. 


91/Dunn 


&& 


Aviation... 
upper low continues to pull away from the area...while Lee-side 
cyclogenesis continues to occur to the west...with weak/surface high 
pressure ridge anchored right over North Texas. All ceilings through early evening 
expected to be of the VFR variety and clearing trends next 6 hours hard 
to diagnose with so much boundary layer moisture west of the area. 
RUC and NAM to a lesser degrees want to show some clearing with drier 
air entraining from the north. However...GFS buffer soundings keep some 
VFR to MVFR ceilings in all evening. This would make a big difference on 
fog/coverage late tonight/early Sat morning. 


We will go middle of the Road NAM forecast here and keep some VFR ceilings 
through middle eve/03z...and scatter an hour or two later than currently 
forecast. Agree with zfw cwsu folks that if some partial clearing can 
occur...then fog across d/fw arpts will be thicker than currently 
forecast...more like whats already advertised at Waco/kact. If ceilings 
hold like GFS...than fog will be lighter like currently forecast. 


05/ 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 339 PM CST Sat Nov 21 2009/ 
the upper trough that brought rain to North Texas yesterday into 
this morning...has moved into extreme eastern Texas as of 20z. 
The trough will continue to move east tonight. Skies have cleared 
across the extreme western part of North Texas. A band of low 
clouds have held in across the area along and west of I-35 
corridor to the clearing line...while the low clouds just to the 
east of the I-35 corridor have been slowly breaking up. Expect to 
see the clouds continue to slowly break up through this evening. 
With a wet ground and light winds...areas of fog will develop 
late tonight. Visibilities will likely drop below 3 miles in 
spots...and can not rule out some patchy dense fog. For now have 
just mentioned areas of fog from 09z to 15z. The next chance of 
rain will be Monday night and Tuesday as the next cold front 
moves into the region. Afterward... dry weather is expected for 
Wednesday through Saturday...with cool/cold mornings and 
seasonably mild afternoons. We may see a freeze 
Wednesday...Thursday and Friday mornings across parts of the 
western and northern sections of North Texas. 


58 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 46 69 49 70 47 / 0 5 0 5 20 
Waco, Texas 46 69 49 73 51 / 5 0 0 5 20 
Paris, Texas 43 67 45 67 48 / 5 5 5 5 40 
Denton, Texas 46 69 46 69 45 / 0 5 0 5 20 
McKinney, Texas 43 68 44 69 45 / 0 5 0 5 30 
Dallas, Texas 46 69 51 70 49 / 0 5 0 5 20 
Terrell, Texas 43 68 48 71 52 / 0 5 0 5 30 
Corsicana, Texas 46 67 49 71 50 / 5 0 5 5 30 
Temple, Texas 44 68 50 73 53 / 5 0 5 5 20 


&& 


Forward watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$