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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 70 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Thursday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 70 °
• T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 55 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Saturday
• 
• High: 73 °
• Low: 61 °
• Clear

• Sunday
• 
• High: 75 °
• Low: 63 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 
635 am EDT Wednesday may 22 2013 


Synopsis... 
high pressure will continue offshore today. A cold front 
will approach the area Thursday and cross the region Friday. High 
pressure will follow the front for the upcoming weekend...then 
move offshore early next week. 


&& 


Near term /through today/... 
as of 630 am Wednesday...no signif changes with this update. Small area of 
rain showers just inland from S CST has dissipated and expected isolated 
activity to develop inland later as atms becomes modestly unstable 
and sea breeze moves inland. Some early morning stratus will burn off with 
pc to mcdy skies expected rest of the day. High temperatures will range 
from low to middle 80s inland to upper 70s/around 80 beaches. 


&& 


Short term /tonight/... 
as of 245 am Wednesday...as upper trf approaches from the west models show 
surge in moisture across eastern NC with precipitation waters at or above 1.75 inches 
along the CST by late tonight. Expect scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms and rain to 
develop as moisture increases overnight with highest probability of precipitation CST and 
lowest deep inland. Mild and moist south-southwest flow will keep temperatures mild 
with upper 60s to around 70 again. 


&& 


Long term /Thursday through Tuesday/... 
as of 3 am Wednesday...warm/moist southerly flow will continue through 
Thursday as eastern NC remains located between ridge offshore and a 
broad trough over the midwestern states. Moisture will increase into 
Thursday as weak shortwave energy approaches from the SW with good 
model agreement. Maintained likely probability of precipitation Thursday with good lift and 
precipitable waters  approaching 1.65 inches. The main threat Thursday will be locally 
heavy rainfall with minor flooding possible. The upper trough will 
drag a cold front through eastern NC early Friday. Precipitation chances will 
taper off from west to east Thursday night into Friday. Temperatures will be near climatology 
Thursday and Friday with temperatures in the low 80s inland to middle 70s obx. 
Return to dry conditions Friday night with the front off the 
coast...winds shifting northwest then north and weak cold air advection initiating across the 
region. 


The upper trough will dig south through NC/Virginia Friday night with high 
pressure building over the region at the surface from the north 
through Sat. Weak cold air advection will persist Sat and sun with broad upper 
troughing aloft and weak ridging at the surface...yielding NE 
surface flow over the area with temperatures in the low 70s along the 
coast to middle/upper 70s inland...below climatology for late may. Some 
inland areas could see overnight lows in the upper 40s Friday 
night/Sat am. Shortwave energy will rotate east-southeast around the base of 
the upper trough Monday and interact with a weak backdoor front to 
produce some showers across the region Monday and Tuesday. Will continue 
slight chance probability of precipitation Monday through Tuesday. Temperatures will slowly warm Monday 
and Tuesday as thickness values and temperatures aloft increase. 


&& 


Aviation /11z Wednesday through Sunday/... 
short term /through tonight/... 
as of 630 am Wednesday...IFR/LIFR stratus has developed inland...hard to 
monitor on satellite with GOES-east currently out. With sun coming up think 
stratus will not make it to CST and shld gradient lift to MVFR and VFR 
through the morning. Only isolated convection is expected inland this 
afternoon. Moisture will be increasing overnight with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms and rain 
developing...expect will have some reduced ceilings/visibilities in rain showers and 
also poss in stratus further inland. 


Long term /Thursday through Sunday/... 
as of 3 am Wednesday...periods of sub-VFR conditions expected Thursday into 
Thursday night as moisture increases ahead of approaching trough and 
frontal boundary. Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to develop 
Thursday/Thursday night. Predominate VFR conditions should return Friday 
and continue through sun. 


&& 


Marine... 
short term /through tonight/... 
as of 630 am Wednesday...SW winds of 5 to 15 kts this morning will increase 
to 10 to 20 kts later today into tonight...highest central and 
northern waters. Seas of 2 to 4 feet today build to 3 to 5 feet most waters 
this evening and continue in that range tonight. Isolated rain showers today then 
increasing rain showers and thunderstorms and rain tonight. 


Long term /Thursday through Sunday/... 
as of 310 am Wednesday...SW gradient will persist over the waters Thursday 
and Thursday night between high pressure offshore and a trough 
approaching from the west. Winds will range 10-20 knots with seas 
mostly 3-5 feet. The gradient pinches tighter Thursday afternoon and Small Craft Advisory 
conditions are possible for seas of 6-7 feet for the central and 
northern waters...as well as gusts to 25 knots. Small Craft Advisory conditions will 
likely persist Thursday afternoon into Friday as the cold front moves 
through waters Friday. Winds become north/northwest Friday evening behind the front 
and continue through Sat 10-15 knots and seas 3-5 feet. The ridge 
crests over the waters sun with winds diminishing to less than 10 
knots and variable direction. Seas diminish sun to 2-3 feet south of 
Diamond Shoals to 2-4 feet north. Previous seas forecast in good 
shape...thus only minor tweaks based on latest wavewatch iii 
guidance however still a foot or two below raw 00z wavewatch run. 


&& 


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories... 
NC...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...rf 
near term...rf 
short term...rf 
long term...dag 
aviation...rf/dag 
marine...rf/dag