Chapel Hill, North Carolina Weather Conditions

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Current Conditions

  • 54°
  • Light Rain
  • Wind: ENE 7 mph
  • Humidity: 97%
  • Visibility: 3.0 miles
  • Dew Point: 53°
  • Pressure: 29.92 in. -

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Next 12 Hours

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Chance of a Thunderstorm
Chance of T-storms
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55°
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Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

  • Sunday
  • Rain
  • High: 59 °
  • Low: 57 °
  • Rain
  • Monday
  • Chance of Rain
  • High: 75 °
  • Low: 45 °
  • Chance of Rain
  • Tuesday
  • Chance of Rain
  • High: 57 °
  • Low: 37 °
  • Chance of Rain
  • Wednesday
  • Chance of Rain
  • High: 43 °
  • Low: 30 °
  • Chance of Rain
  • Thursday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 48 °
  • Low: 30 °
  • Partly Cloudy

Forecast for Chapel Hill, North Carolina

Updated: 10:00 AM EST on November 23, 2014

  • Sunday

    Overcast with a chance of rain, then rain in the afternoon. High of 59F. Winds from the NNE at 5 to 10 mph shifting to the ESE in the afternoon. Chance of rain 100% with rainfall amounts near 0.3 in. possible.

  • Sunday Night

    Overcast with a chance of a thunderstorm and rain, then a chance of rain after midnight. Low of 57F. Winds from the SSE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 100% with rainfall amounts near 0.4 in. possible.

  • Monday

    Overcast with a chance of rain in the morning, then partly cloudy. High of 75F. Windy. Winds from the SSW at 10 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

  • Monday Night

    Partly cloudy. Low of 45F. Winds from the WSW at 5 to 15 mph.

  • Tuesday

    Mostly cloudy in the morning, then overcast. High of 57F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

  • Tuesday Night

    Overcast with a chance of rain. Low of 37F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 60% with rainfall amounts near 0.6 in. possible.

  • Wednesday

    Overcast with a chance of rain. High of 43F. Winds from the North at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70% with rainfall amounts near 0.4 in. possible.

  • Wednesday Night

    Overcast in the evening, then mostly cloudy. Low of 30F. Winds from the West at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Thursday

    Partly cloudy. High of 48F. Winds from the WSW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Thursday Night

    Clear. Low of 30F. Winds from the WNW at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Friday

    Clear. High of 57F. Winds from the North at 5 to 10 mph shifting to the SE in the afternoon.

  • Friday Night

    Clear. Low of 30F. Winds from the SSW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Saturday

    Partly cloudy. High of 55F. Winds from the SW at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Saturday Night

    Clear. Fog overnight. Low of 34F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Sunday

    Clear. High of 59F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Sunday Night

    Partly cloudy. Fog overnight. Low of 41F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Monday

    Partly cloudy. High of 68F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Monday Night

    Partly cloudy. Fog overnight. Low of 45F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Tuesday

    Partly cloudy. High of 59F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Tuesday Night

    Clear. Low of 41F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Wednesday

    Clear. High of 61F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Wednesday Night

    Clear. Low of 41F. Winds less than 5 mph.

Personal Weather Stations

Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]

Location: Tenney Circle, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 6:46 PM EST

Temperature: 52.3 °F Dew Point: 50 °F Humidity: 93% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.90 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.02 in Graphs

Location: Cosgrove Hill, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 6:49 PM EST

Temperature: 54.3 °F Dew Point: 53 °F Humidity: 96% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.93 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.03 in Graphs

Location: Smith Middle School, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 6:49 PM EST

Temperature: 54.7 °F Dew Point: 54 °F Humidity: 97% Wind: South at 1.0 mph Pressure: 29.54 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.05 in Graphs

Location: NC Botanical Garden, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 6:49 PM EST

Temperature: 50.4 °F Dew Point: 47 °F Humidity: 88% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.93 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.05 in Graphs

Location: Carrboro Elementary, Carrboro, NC

Updated: 6:49 PM EST

Temperature: 54.4 °F Dew Point: 54 °F Humidity: 97% Wind: SSW at 1.0 mph Pressure: 29.93 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.05 in Graphs

Location: Hogan Woods Circle, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 6:46 PM EST

Temperature: 53.1 °F Dew Point: 48 °F Humidity: 83% Wind: North at - Pressure: 30.05 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Westglen, Durham, NC

Updated: 6:49 PM EST

Temperature: 53.1 °F Dew Point: 52 °F Humidity: 98% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.95 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.07 in Graphs

Location: Duke Forest, Durham, NC

Updated: 6:49 PM EST

Temperature: 55.0 °F Dew Point: -40 °F Humidity: - Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.58 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Edwards Pond, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 6:45 PM EST

Temperature: 52.8 °F Dew Point: 51 °F Humidity: 93% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.93 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.41 in Graphs

Location: Chancellors Ridge, Durham, NC

Updated: 6:49 PM EST

Temperature: 56.7 °F Dew Point: 50 °F Humidity: 78% Wind: South at 2.2 mph Pressure: 29.88 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Stoneycreek Neighborhood, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 6:49 PM EST

Temperature: 54.3 °F Dew Point: 53 °F Humidity: 96% Wind: SE at 1.0 mph Pressure: 29.91 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.02 in Graphs

Location: Lakewood, Durham, NC

Updated: 6:38 PM EST

Temperature: 54.9 °F Dew Point: 54 °F Humidity: 96% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.92 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.02 in Graphs

Location: Rockwood, Durham, NC

Updated: 6:47 PM EST

Temperature: 54.9 °F Dew Point: 52 °F Humidity: 90% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.79 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Lystra Estates, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 6:45 PM EST

Temperature: 53.9 °F Dew Point: 52 °F Humidity: 95% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.90 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.62 in Graphs

Location: APRSWXNET Chapel Hill NC US, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 5:47 PM EST

Temperature: 52 °F Dew Point: 51 °F Humidity: 95% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.92 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.01 in Graphs

Location: 510sRus@ Pinedale Dr, Durham, NC

Updated: 6:49 PM EST

Temperature: 53.9 °F Dew Point: 53 °F Humidity: 96% Wind: SSE at 1.0 mph Pressure: 29.92 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.02 in Graphs

Location: Trinity Park, Durham, NC

Updated: 6:49 PM EST

Temperature: 53.9 °F Dew Point: 53 °F Humidity: 97% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.92 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Cedar Grove, Pittsboro, NC

Updated: 6:45 PM EST

Temperature: 55.5 °F Dew Point: 55 °F Humidity: 98% Wind: East at 6.0 mph Pressure: 29.90 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.06 in Graphs

Location: Burdens Creek, Morrisville, NC

Updated: 6:40 PM EST

Temperature: 55.4 °F Dew Point: - Humidity: 88% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.59 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Briar Chapel, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 6:40 PM EST

Temperature: 56.1 °F Dew Point: 56 °F Humidity: 98% Wind: East at 1.0 mph Pressure: 29.89 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.03 in Graphs

Location: MesoWest V58A Pittsboro NC US USARRAY, Bynum, NC

Updated: 6:00 PM EST

Temperature: 53 °F Dew Point: 50 °F Humidity: 90% Wind: ENE at 4 mph Pressure: 29.95 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Frosty Meadow, Pittsboro, NC

Updated: 6:45 PM EST

Temperature: 55.7 °F Dew Point: 56 °F Humidity: 100% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.90 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.11 in Graphs

Location: Cane Creek View, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 6:47 PM EST

Temperature: 57.4 °F Dew Point: 56 °F Humidity: 95% Wind: ESE at 2.7 mph Pressure: 29.78 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Cane Creek View-2, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 6:49 PM EST

Temperature: 57.4 °F Dew Point: 56 °F Humidity: 95% Wind: NE at 3.2 mph Pressure: 29.30 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.05 in Graphs

Location: Churton Grove, Hillsborough, NC

Updated: 6:48 PM EST

Temperature: 53.7 °F Dew Point: 53 °F Humidity: 96% Wind: SE at 3.0 mph Pressure: 29.95 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Cary Park, Cary, NC

Updated: 6:44 PM EST

Temperature: 57.3 °F Dew Point: 57 °F Humidity: 99% Wind: South at 1.6 mph Pressure: 30.42 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.02 in Graphs

Location: Cary Park, Cary, NC

Updated: 6:49 PM EST

Temperature: 56.6 °F Dew Point: 56 °F Humidity: 96% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.94 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.03 in Graphs

Location: Heritage Heights, Durham, NC

Updated: 6:38 PM EST

Temperature: 53.1 °F Dew Point: 52 °F Humidity: 98% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.80 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Country Lane Estates, Durham, NC

Updated: 6:49 PM EST

Temperature: 54.0 °F Dew Point: 54 °F Humidity: 99% Wind: ENE at 2.9 mph Pressure: 29.22 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.02 in Graphs

Location: Copperleaf, Cary, NC

Updated: 6:49 PM EST

Temperature: 57.0 °F Dew Point: 57 °F Humidity: 99% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.91 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.07 in Graphs

Location: NE Durham County, (DW), Durham, NC

Updated: 6:48 PM EST

Temperature: 55.6 °F Dew Point: 54 °F Humidity: 96% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.85 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 6:49 PM EST

Temperature: 54.6 °F Dew Point: 54 °F Humidity: 100% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.88 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.06 in Graphs

Location: Twin Lakes, Cary, NC

Updated: 6:43 PM EST

Temperature: 56.3 °F Dew Point: 56 °F Humidity: 99% Wind: SSW at 2.7 mph Pressure: 29.73 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Swann's Mill, Durham, NC

Updated: 6:39 PM EST

Temperature: 52.9 °F Dew Point: 52 °F Humidity: 97% Wind: SSE at 1.7 mph Pressure: 29.75 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Jordan Lake, Pittsboro, NC

Updated: 6:44 PM EST

Temperature: 55.5 °F Dew Point: 55 °F Humidity: 98% Wind: SSE at 1.0 mph Pressure: 29.91 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.32 in Graphs

Location: Cascades, Hillsborough, NC

Updated: 6:45 PM EST

Temperature: 53.0 °F Dew Point: 52 °F Humidity: 98% Wind: ENE at 2.0 mph Pressure: 29.85 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

MSN Maps of:

Temp: Dew Point: Humidity Wind Pressure Hr Precip -

NWS Forecaster Discussion




Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Raleigh NC 
340 PM EST sun Nov 23 2014 


Synopsis...a warm front will surge northward through the Carolinas 
and middle-Atlantic late today into tonight as a low pressure system 
tracks northeast from the lower Midwest to the Great Lakes. An 
associated cold front will sweep eastward through the Carolinas 
Monday night. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
as of 305 PM Sunday... 


High pressure offshore still extends across central NC this 
morning...with strengthening southwesterly flow aloft ahead of a 
longwave trough over the west-central US. A vigorous shortwave 
currently over the lower Mississippi River valley has become 
negatively tiled and will lift northeast toward the Great Lakes 
region. Out of ahead of this wave...moisture has been steadily 
increasing today with precipitable water now up to 1.25 to 1.5 inches. Areas of 
light rain driven by 295-300k layer isentropic lift will continue 
this afternoon as warm advection and isentropic ascent strengthen 
with the approach of the moist low level jet this evening. 


Timing... the low level jet will surge across the area this evening...along 
with a strong 850mb warm front characterized by 850mb temperatures in 
excess of 15c. The NAM produces a bit more MUCAPE than the 
GFS/ECMWF...but generally expect about 300-600 j/kg in the southeast 
with less to the northwest. The biggest question will be how much 
surface dewpoint recovery occurs with the surface warm front after 
00z. Light precipitation into the dry airmass over NC today has lead to a 
weak in-situ cad airmass...which will retard both the retreating 
wedge front and true warm front. Past experience suggests The Wedge 
front will end up between The Triad and Triangle...while the warm 
front will make it to at least the I-95 corridor. Will have to watch 
for elevated convection near the 850mb front around 00z..and then 
the potential for boundary layer rooted convection between the 
surface warm front and an mesoscale convective system/effective front associated with the 
vorticity lobe attendant to the main shortwave. 


Regarding the severe threat... helicity will be maximized in the 
vicinity of the surface warm front before winds begin to veer to 
southerly...but the overall low-level shear will support curved 
hodographs and a tornado threat...provided low-level destabilization 
occurs (still the biggest limiting factor). Some embedded 
supercellular structure will be possible within the "pre-frontal" 
convection and within the primary band itself. Storm Prediction Center has focused the 
slight risk along the Carolina coast...with the lesser marginal risk 
along I-95. 


Once the effective front sweeps across the area...precipitation will come 
to an end for the most part. While the dry slot will spread across 
western NC... the primary moist axis will become aligned southwest 
to northeast over coastal NC...so a few additional showers may 
continue to move northeast through the coastal plain. Temperatures should 
essentially hold around the middle 50s west to middle 60s east. 


&& 


Short term /Monday and Monday night/... 
as of 305 PM Sunday... 


..warm and windy conditions on Monday... 


The middle/upper levels will continue to dry on Monday...while low- 
level moisture lingers with the trailing cold front still west of 
the mountains. With some breaks in cloud cover and no airmass 
change...temperatures are expected to rise into the low 70s west to middle and 
even upper 70s east (still a couple degrees short of records). 
Mixing depth in NAM and GFS forecast soundings varies by as much as 
2000 feet...especially in the east. Wind fields will still be quite 
strong...with up to 50kt in the lowest 3000ft. How much of that will 
be mixed down to the surface is a little uncertain...but at a 
minimum it appears gusts to around 30kt will be possible. 
Confidence in widespread higher gusts is too low at the moment and 
Wind Advisory criteria appears out of reach. Will continue mention 
in the severe weather potential statement. With dewpoints still elevated in the coastal 
plain..some weak instability should develop. However... there is no 
real significant trigger for ascent...so will just maintain a slight 
chance in the east. 


The cold front will cross the area Monday night. The GFS is a bit 
quicker than the NAM/ECMWF..but all models have the cold front east 
of the area by 12z Tuesday. Lows in the lower 40s west to lower 50s 
east. 




&& 


Long term /Tuesday through Sunday/... 
as of 335 PM Sunday... 


Tuesday-Wednesday night: 1025 mb Continental polar surface high pressure will 
build east across the middle MS and Tennessee valleys Tuesday...then northeastward 
into the northern Middle Atlantic States and New England Tuesday night 
and Wednesday. Meanwhile...the approach of a complex positively-tilted 
trough aloft will induce cyclogenesis from the central gom to the 
southeast US coast late Tuesday and Tuesday night...then up southern middle 
Atlantic coast on Wednesday. The preferred closer to the coast/more 
westward solution for the low track from yesterday has gained 
increasing model support since...with the past two runs of the 
Canadian now close enough to the coast to spread precipitation 
throughout central NC late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening...leaving 
the NAM the lone well offshore/eastern operational outlier. 


With the above favored low track in mind...the result will be rain 
developing from the south late Tuesday and especially Tuesday night...with a 
cold rain and temperatures falling into the middle 30s to around 40 
degrees...on Wednesday. The track of the coastal low and presence of the 
cp high pressure...which are forecast to migrate in tandem up the 
East Coast...will provide a favorable pattern for snow on the northwest 
side of the precipitation shield. While most of the snow east of the 
Appalachians will likely not materialize until the system moves 
parallel to the larger metropolitan areas in the I-95 corridor...forecast 
partial thickness values spend time in the "wintry mixture" to 
"measurable snow with rain" portion of the nomogram as the 
precipitation begins to pull away during the midday and afternoon 
hours Wednesday. Given the marginally cold partial thickness values/ 
thermodynamic profiles...and freezing levels around 1000 feet over the 
Piedmont per GFS bufr forecast soundings...any such snow would 
likely be driven by secondary factors such as precipitation 
rates/melting...which is not uncommon for events that fall in the 
above-referenced portions of the nomogram. 


With the above factors in mind...there is a high enough probability 
for wet snow to at least occasionally mix in to warrant mention of a 
slight chance to chance of snow mainly north of Highway 64 in the 
gridded and text forecast. The brevity and intermittent nature of 
snow during otherwise chilly rain...above freezing boundary layer 
temperatures ( albeit only marginally)...relatively warm soil 
temperatures 9mostly in the 50s today)...and wetness from the rain 
will all make it extremely difficult for any accumulation to occur. 
No travel impacts are consequently expected. Temperatures 
will...however...dip into the upper 20s to lower behind the system 
Wednesday night...so any moisture on the roadways could result in patchy 
black ice through early Thursday morning. 


Thursday-Sun: beneath a broad trough aloft from north-central Canada to 
the middle Atlantic coast...a series of clipper lows will track 
across the Ohio Valley and northern Middle Atlantic States...which 
would favor the re-establishment of Arctic high pressure across the 
northern half of the Continental U.S. East of The Rockies (just to the north of 
nc)...through the end of the week. The frontal zone between the 
Arctic air mass to the north and a milder/more modified high 
pressure system over the southeast states will gradually retreat 
north as the flow aloft loses amplitude/relaxes toward the end of 
the forecast period. The resultant pattern of relaxing northwest to west-northwest 
flow aloft would result in a transition from dry and cool conditions 
to dry and seasonable ones through the forecast period. 


&& 


Aviation /18z Sunday through Friday/... 
as of 100 PM Sunday... 


Areas of light rain continue to move east-northeast across the area 
this afternoon. Low-level dry air has kept low ceilings from 
developing at most terminals...but the trend continues to be down 
and MVFR/IFR ceilings are essentially on the doorstep of 
kgso/kint/krdu/kfay. Expect all sites to drop to IFR by 21z and 
stay there for much of the evening. Winds will stay out of the east- 
northeast. Late this evening...a warm front will move into the area 
from the south...which should case some lifting of ceilings at kfay 
and krwi between 00z and 06z. The front will attempt to push all 
the way past krdu to kgso/kint...though its still uncertain whether 
or not The Triad terminals. At the same time a strong 50-60kt low 
level jet will move over the area...which may create low-level wind 
shear from krdu west. A few strong storms will also be 
possible...mainly from kfay to krwi and east. 


After 06z...an effective front will sweep across the area and winds 
will turn to more south-southwesterly. Wind gusts to 20-25kt will 
be possible...increasing to as high as 30-35kt during the day on 
Monday. There will be some improvement in ceilings during the day 
Monday...though low-level moisture won completely scour until the 
actual cold front crosses the area Monday night. 


Outlook...another system will impact the region by midweek...though 
there is some uncertainty as to how much of the area will be 
impacted by precipitation and adverse aviation conditions as a 
surface low moves along the East Coast. 


&& 


Rah watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...bsd/Vincent 
near term...bls 
short term...bls 
long term...mws 
aviation...bls/bsd 



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