Chapel Hill, North Carolina Weather Conditions

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Current Conditions

  • 33°
  • Light Snow
  • Wind: NE 5 mph
  • Humidity: 78%
  • Visibility: 4.0 miles
  • Dew Point: 27°
  • Pressure: 30.30 in. 0
  • Heat Index: 29

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Next 12 Hours

10  am
1  pm
4  pm
7  pm
10  pm
Chance of Rain
Chance of Rain
Chance of Rain
Chance of Rain
Chance of Rain
Chance of Rain
Mostly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
37°
39°
45°
36°
34°
Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

  • Saturday
  • Chance of Rain
  • High: 46 °
  • Low: 30 °
  • Chance of Rain
  • Sunday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 48 °
  • Low: 37 °
  • Partly Cloudy
  • Monday
  • Rain
  • High: 45 °
  • Low: 43 °
  • Rain
  • Tuesday
  • Chance of Rain
  • High: 57 °
  • Low: 55 °
  • Chance of Rain
  • Wednesday
  • Chance of Rain
  • High: 63 °
  • Low: 36 °
  • Chance of Rain

Forecast for Chapel Hill, North Carolina

Updated: 10:00 AM EST on December 20, 2014

  • Saturday

    Overcast with a chance of rain. High of 46F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

  • Saturday Night

    Partly cloudy. Low of 30F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Sunday

    Partly cloudy. High of 48F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Sunday Night

    Partly cloudy in the evening, then overcast with rain. Low of 37F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

  • Monday

    Overcast with rain, then a chance of rain in the afternoon. High of 45F. Winds from the NNE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 80% with rainfall amounts near 0.2 in. possible.

  • Monday Night

    Overcast with a chance of rain. Low of 43F. Winds from the NNE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Tuesday

    Overcast with a chance of rain in the afternoon. Fog early. High of 57F. Winds from the ENE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

  • Tuesday Night

    Overcast with a chance of rain. Fog overnight. Low of 55F. Winds from the SE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70% with rainfall amounts near 0.4 in. possible.

  • Wednesday

    Overcast with a chance of rain. Fog early. High of 63F. Winds from the South at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50%.

  • Wednesday Night

    Partly cloudy. Low of 36F. Breezy. Winds from the WSW at 10 to 20 mph.

  • Thursday

    Clear. High of 52F. Breezy. Winds from the WSW at 10 to 20 mph.

  • Thursday Night

    Clear. Low of 34F with a windchill as low as 28F. Winds from the WSW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Friday

    Partly cloudy. High of 55F. Breezy. Winds from the SSW at 10 to 20 mph.

  • Friday Night

    Partly cloudy. Fog overnight. Low of 36F. Winds from the WSW at 5 to 15 mph.

  • Saturday

    Mostly cloudy. High of 54F. Winds from the NNW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Saturday Night

    Clear. Low of 32F. Winds from the WNW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Sunday

    Clear. High of 46F. Winds from the WNW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Sunday Night

    Clear. Low of 27F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Monday

    Partly cloudy. High of 45F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Monday Night

    Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow. Fog overnight. Low of 27F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of snow 50% with accumulations up to 2 in. possible.

  • Tuesday

    Overcast with a chance of snow. Fog early. High of 43F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of snow 40%.

  • Tuesday Night

    Clear. Fog overnight. Low of 27F. Winds less than 5 mph.

Severe Weather Alert Descriptions

 Special Statement  Statement as of 8:51 am EST on December 20, 2014


... Light snow across the northern Piedmont this morning...

Light snow will fall across the Piedmont of North Carolina this
morning. There may be a brief 10 minute period of moderate snow
across the Triangle... in a slightly heavier band of precipitation
that will move through the area by 10 am. No accumulations are
expected owing to the light and brief nature of the snow.
Otherwise... the snow should become increasingly mixed with rain
through the remainder the morning with precipitation ending around
noon.









Personal Weather Stations

Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]

Location: Tenney Circle, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 9:21 AM EST

Temperature: 34.9 °F Dew Point: 29 °F Humidity: 78% Wind: North at - Pressure: 30.31 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 35 °F Graphs

Location: Cosgrove Hill, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 9:24 AM EST

Temperature: 34.5 °F Dew Point: 30 °F Humidity: 84% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.31 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 34 °F Graphs

Location: Landerwood Lane, Durham, NC

Updated: 9:21 AM EST

Temperature: 35.2 °F Dew Point: 28 °F Humidity: 75% Wind: North at - Pressure: 30.41 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 35 °F Graphs

Location: Burning Tree Drive, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 9:21 AM EST

Temperature: 39.0 °F Dew Point: 28 °F Humidity: 65% Wind: North at - Pressure: 30.33 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 39 °F Graphs

Location: Smith Middle School, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 9:24 AM EST

Temperature: 33.9 °F Dew Point: 30 °F Humidity: 84% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.91 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 34 °F Graphs

Location: NC Botanical Garden, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 9:24 AM EST

Temperature: 33.4 °F Dew Point: 30 °F Humidity: 87% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.30 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 33 °F Graphs

Location: Carrboro Elementary, Carrboro, NC

Updated: 9:24 AM EST

Temperature: 33.0 °F Dew Point: 29 °F Humidity: 86% Wind: WSW at 2.0 mph Pressure: 30.31 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 33 °F Graphs

Location: Hogan Woods Circle, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 9:21 AM EST

Temperature: 34.0 °F Dew Point: 26 °F Humidity: 73% Wind: North at - Pressure: 30.43 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 34 °F Graphs

Location: Hunter's Ridge Road, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 9:21 AM EST

Temperature: 36.1 °F Dew Point: 30 °F Humidity: 77% Wind: North at - Pressure: 30.31 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 36 °F Graphs

Location: Westglen, Durham, NC

Updated: 9:24 AM EST

Temperature: 34.7 °F Dew Point: 27 °F Humidity: 73% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.33 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 35 °F Graphs

Location: Duke Forest, Durham, NC

Updated: 9:24 AM EST

Temperature: 34.0 °F Dew Point: 24 °F Humidity: 67% Wind: SW at 2.0 mph Pressure: 30.01 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 34 °F Graphs

Location: Edwards Pond, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 9:20 AM EST

Temperature: 33.2 °F Dew Point: 28 °F Humidity: 81% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.31 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 33 °F Graphs

Location: Windy Hill Neighborhood, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 9:24 AM EST

Temperature: 33.8 °F Dew Point: 26 °F Humidity: 72% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.29 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 34 °F Graphs

Location: Chancellors Ridge, Durham, NC

Updated: 9:24 AM EST

Temperature: 34.3 °F Dew Point: 21 °F Humidity: 57% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.28 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 34 °F Graphs

Location: Stoneycreek Neighborhood, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 9:24 AM EST

Temperature: 33.1 °F Dew Point: 28 °F Humidity: 83% Wind: ENE at 1.0 mph Pressure: 30.28 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 33 °F Graphs

Location: Lakewood, Durham, NC

Updated: 9:11 AM EST

Temperature: 33.2 °F Dew Point: 28 °F Humidity: 81% Wind: NE at 2.0 mph Pressure: 30.32 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 33 °F Graphs

Location: Rockwood, Durham, NC

Updated: 9:21 AM EST

Temperature: 36.7 °F Dew Point: 28 °F Humidity: 72% Wind: North at - Pressure: 30.19 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 37 °F Graphs

Location: 510sRus@ Pinedale Dr, Durham, NC

Updated: 9:24 AM EST

Temperature: 33.6 °F Dew Point: 28 °F Humidity: 81% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.30 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 34 °F Graphs

Location: Trinity Park, Durham, NC

Updated: 9:24 AM EST

Temperature: 33.5 °F Dew Point: 29 °F Humidity: 82% Wind: NE at 1.0 mph Pressure: 30.30 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 34 °F Graphs

Location: Cedar Grove, Pittsboro, NC

Updated: 9:20 AM EST

Temperature: 33.0 °F Dew Point: 30 °F Humidity: 90% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.27 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 33 °F Graphs

Location: Burdens Creek, Morrisville, NC

Updated: 9:20 AM EST

Temperature: 34.0 °F Dew Point: - Humidity: 69% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.92 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 34 °F Graphs

Location: Carolina Preserve, Cary, NC

Updated: 9:24 AM EST

Temperature: 34.7 °F Dew Point: 32 °F Humidity: 88% Wind: ESE at 1.7 mph Pressure: 30.02 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 35 °F Graphs

Location: Briar Chapel, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 9:17 AM EST

Temperature: 33.9 °F Dew Point: 31 °F Humidity: 89% Wind: East at 2.0 mph Pressure: 30.26 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 34 °F Graphs

Location: MesoWest V58A Pittsboro NC US USARRAY, Bynum, NC

Updated: 9:00 AM EST

Temperature: 34 °F Dew Point: 28 °F Humidity: 81% Wind: ENE at 4 mph Pressure: 30.31 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 30 °F Graphs

Location: Frosty Meadow, Pittsboro, NC

Updated: 9:20 AM EST

Temperature: 34.3 °F Dew Point: 30 °F Humidity: 86% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.29 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 34 °F Graphs

Location: Churton Grove, Hillsborough, NC

Updated: 9:24 AM EST

Temperature: 33.4 °F Dew Point: 28 °F Humidity: 80% Wind: ENE at 1.0 mph Pressure: 30.33 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 33 °F Graphs

Location: Cary Park, Cary, NC

Updated: 9:19 AM EST

Temperature: 34.8 °F Dew Point: 32 °F Humidity: 90% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.83 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 35 °F Graphs

Location: Cary Park, Cary, NC

Updated: 9:24 AM EST

Temperature: 34.1 °F Dew Point: 31 °F Humidity: 87% Wind: North at 6.0 mph Pressure: 30.32 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 29 °F Graphs

Location: Heritage Heights, Durham, NC

Updated: 9:23 AM EST

Temperature: 34.5 °F Dew Point: 28 °F Humidity: 77% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.21 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 34 °F Graphs

Location: Country Lane Estates, Durham, NC

Updated: 9:24 AM EST

Temperature: 33.6 °F Dew Point: 29 °F Humidity: 83% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.58 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 34 °F Graphs

Location: Fitzford Court, Durham, NC

Updated: 9:23 AM EST

Temperature: 33.0 °F Dew Point: 26 °F Humidity: 73% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.26 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 33 °F Graphs

Location: Copperleaf, Cary, NC

Updated: 9:24 AM EST

Temperature: 34.5 °F Dew Point: 29 °F Humidity: 79% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.28 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 34 °F Graphs

Location: NE Durham County, (DW), Durham, NC

Updated: 9:24 AM EST

Temperature: 34.3 °F Dew Point: 28 °F Humidity: 79% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.26 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 34 °F Graphs

Location: Wexford, Wake Forest, NC

Updated: 9:21 AM EST

Temperature: 36.3 °F Dew Point: 28 °F Humidity: 71% Wind: North at - Pressure: 30.33 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 36 °F Graphs

MSN Maps of:

Temp: Dew Point: Humidity Wind Pressure Hr Precip -

NWS Forecaster Discussion




Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Raleigh NC 
854 am EST Sat Dec 20 2014 


Synopsis...a fast moving disturbance will track eastward across the 
region today. Weak high pressure will extend across central North 
Carolina Sunday. Another disturbance and associated surface low 
pressure system will affect our area Sunday night into Monday. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
as of 855 am Saturday... 


Morning update to include light snow moving across the Triangle in 
an area of a bit heavier precipiation rates. This will be moving off 
to the east over the next hour or so and into the Rocky Mount area 
later this morning. Accumulations are not expected and the light 
snow will cause no threat to travel. Previous discussion follows. 
-Ellis 




Today...short wave exiting the deep south early this morning 
projected to cross near or just south of central NC late this 
morning-early this afternoon. This feature appears to be advancing a 
little farther to the north than what previous model runs had 
depicted. Still expect bulk of light precipitation associated with 
this feature to affect mainly our southern counties. 
However...potential for spotty light precipitation to extend as far north 
as the I-40 corridor between The Triad and the Triangle this 
morning. Thus have adjusted probability of precipitation a little higher across the northern 
Piedmont while maintaining likely probability of precipitation across the south. 


Bulk of lift associated with the short wave will begin to exit our region 
by middle day-early afternoon. Thus should see precipitation coverage diminish 
over most of the Piedmont by early afternoon. Due to close proximity 
of the short wave...precipitation may persist well into the afternoon across the 
sandhills and southern coastal plain. 


Partial thicknesses off the latest model guidance in conjunction 
with evaporative cooling suggest decent probability of rain mixed 
with snow across the northwest Piedmont early this morning. 


High temperatures today dependent on extent of precipitation. Extensive cloudiness 
will limit insolation. If precipitation more widespread than anticipated 
across the Piedmont/northern coastal plain...temperatures may struggle to 
make it out of the 30s. Overall...temperatures today will be a solid 7-10 
degrees below normal. Maximum temperatures generally 40-45 degrees. 


Tonight...weak subsidence in the wake of the departing short wave and surface 
ridge nosing southward into our region should aid to diminish the cloud 
coverage over our region. Models differ on extent of clearing with 
the GFS a little more aggressive than most. Any precipitation occurring at 
sunset across the far southeast should diminish/dissipate before 10 PM. 
Still expect some residual cloudiness overnight. If GFS verifies 
best...then min temperatures tonight may end up being 2-4 degrees colder 
than currently forecast. Min temperatures upper 20s/around 30 north to the 
lower 30s south. 


&& 


Short term /Sunday and Sunday night/... 
as of 315 am Saturday... 


Surface ridge extends south across the area...aided aloft by a 
minor short wave ridge. This should provide partly-mostly sunny skies to 
start the day. A short wave exiting the Southern Plains will back the flow 
aloft to a southwesterly flow and begin to advance middle-high level cloudiness 
from the south late in the day. Low level thicknesses in the 1315m- 
1330m range...supportive of maximum temperatures about a category or two below 
normal. Maximum temperatures near 50-lower 50s. If clouds are delayed across 
the south...maximum temperatures may end up being 2-3 degrees warmer. 


Sunday night...southern stream short wave projected to cross the lower MS 
valley and induce weak surface wave development off the SC coast by 
early Monday. While a dry air surface ridge will maintain a presence 
over central NC...developing southerly flow a few thousand feet aloft will 
initiate an overrunning event leading to a classical or hybrid cold 
air damming event. As southerly flow strengthens toward 06z...expect rain 
to overspread the region from the south...locking in the cad air 
mass. Will start out with chance probability of precipitation across the south in the 
evening...ramping up to likely probability of precipitation across the south half after 
midnight...and chance probability of precipitation elsewhere. If model trends continue in 
later model runs...an increase in probability of precipitation to likely north and 
categorical south would be warranted. Min temperatures mainly 35-40 degrees. 


&& 


Long term /Monday through Friday/... 
as of 255 am Saturday... 


Monday through wednesday: a southern stream short wave disturbance will 
lift northeastward out from the Gulf Coast states on Sunday night 
into Monday morning... spreading widespread rain across all of 
central NC as isentropic lift ramps up. With a 1030 mb surface high 
still expected to be extending southward into our area (as it ever 
so slowly shifts eastward) expect we will see a pronounced damming 
event develop.... with temperatures falling into the middle to upper 30s 
Monday morning across the northern and northwest Piedmont... with 
temperatures in the 40s elsewhere. However... both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) 
continue to depict an all rain event across the area... with a 
pronounced warm noes at around 4-5kft combined with surface wetbulb 
temperatures in the middle 30s at worst when the precipitation spreads into the area. 
The more substantial precipitation will come to an end by early to middle 
afternoon as the best moist isentropic upglide begins to wane along 
with drier air aloft filtering into the area. Still we should see 
some lingering areas of light rain and drizzle remaining. 


With a good areawide quarter to a half inch of rain expected we 
should be able to lock in the damming airmass. Thus.. have lowered 
high temperatures... especially across the eastern/southeastern portion of 
central NC. Expect high temperatures to range from the upper 30s north/northwest to 
the middle to upper 40s E/se. Temperatures Monday night/Tuesday morning are 
expected to remain near steady or even slowly begin to rise a 
little. Thus... will go with lows ranging from the upper 30s to middle 
40s. 


A northern stream disturbance will have formed a deep trough by 
Tuesday morning with stacked low pressure over the upper Midwest. 
Both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) are in good agreement in showing the deep 
associated trough axis shifting eastward on Tuesday into Wednesday 
while taking on more of a negative tilt... with the associated 
surface front (and a possible triple point low) moving across 
central NC on Wednesday morning into the early afternoon (as it 
stands now... still several days out though). Questions remain as to 
where a possible triple point low may form though... as finer 
details like this are hard to nail down this far out in the 
forecast. However... with the potential for a retreating cad 
boundary and strengthening low level wind field... we will need to 
keep an eye on how this system comes together. This would be a hslc 
type of system. Given the time of year it is quite hard to get the 
needed instability for possible severe storms though. As the 
effective front approaches and moves through the area on Wednesday 
morning into the afternoon we should see a band of rain/showers 
along and in advance of it (with possibly a few thunderstorms)... 
with things drying out quickly behind the effective front on 
Wednesday afternoon. 


Highs on Tuesday will be tricky and depend on how much the cad 
boundary retreats. For now will go with highs in the upper 40s northwest to 
around 60s southeast. Temperatures by Wednesday morning will not fall much... with 
lows Wednesday morning in the upper 40s northwest to middle 50s se/E. Temperatures 
are expected to warm Wednesday ahead of the front into the upper 50s 
northwest to the upper 60s east. 


Wednesday night through thursday: we should see rapid clearing on 
Wednesday night and continuing for the rest of the week... with a 
return to quite weather. Lows Thursday morning are expected to be in 
the 30s... with highs Thursday and Friday afternoons in the 50s. We 
could be a bit breeze on Thursday as models are showing the 
potential for sustained winds out of the west-southwest in the 14 to 20 miles per hour 
range... with maybe some gusts of up to 25 miles per hour. 


&& 


Aviation /12z Saturday through Wednesday/... 
as of 639 am Saturday... 


An upper level disturbance advancing east across Georgia early this 
morning will pass south of central NC later this morning through 
early afternoon. This weather system will spread moisture overhead 
along with lift to produce patches fo light rain...especially south 
of Highway 64. Some of the light rain may mix with a little snow 
along and north of teh I-40 corridor between The Triad and krdu 
through 15z. Otherwise expect widespread ceilings 5000-8000ft with 
pockets of MVFR ceilings (1500-2500ft) possible. Surface winds will 
become northeasterly with sustained winds at or below 10kts. 


Weak high pressure will build into central NC from north tonight and 
Sunday. Dry air associated with the ridge should aid to diminish 
some of the cloud coverage later this evening into the overnight 
hours. 


A stronger upper level disturbance and associated surface low 
pressure system will bring a high probability of adverse aviation 
conditions to central NC Sunday night into Monday. Widespread 
MVFR/IFR ceilings and areas of rain are expected. These conditions 
will spread north into southern sections of central NC shortly after 
sunset Sunday then continue northward Sunday night. 


A decent to high threat for MVFR ceilings will linger Monday night 
into Tuesday as the low level air mass remains moist. A strong cold 
front will approach Tuesday night and cross the region Wednesday. 
Gusty southerly winds are expected ahead of the front Tuesday night along 
with heavy showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two. The front 
will cross the area Wednesday with blustery westerly winds expected 
in its wake. 


&& 


Rah watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...wss 
near term...Ellis/wss 
short term...wss 
long term...bsd 
aviation...wss 






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