Chapel Hill, North Carolina Weather Conditions

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Current Conditions

  • 50°
  • Overcast
  • Wind: NNW 5 mph
  • Humidity: 80%
  • Visibility: 10.0 miles
  • Dew Point: 44°
  • Pressure: 29.75 in. 0

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Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

  • Saturday
  • Rain
  • High: 54 °
  • Low: 36 °
  • Rain
  • Sunday
  • Clear
  • High: 54 °
  • Low: 32 °
  • Clear
  • Monday
  • Clear
  • High: 61 °
  • Low: 37 °
  • Clear
  • Tuesday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 68 °
  • Low: 46 °
  • Partly Cloudy
  • Wednesday
  • Mostly Cloudy
  • High: 72 °
  • Low: 54 °
  • Mostly Cloudy

Forecast for Chapel Hill, North Carolina

Updated: 11:00 PM EDT on October 31, 2014

  • Saturday

    Overcast with rain, then a chance of rain in the afternoon. High of 54F. Breezy. Winds from the NNE at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Chance of rain 70%.

  • Saturday Night

    Partly cloudy with a chance of rain. Low of 36F. Breezy. Winds from the NNW at 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

  • Sunday

    Clear. High of 54F. Breezy. Winds from the NW at 15 to 20 mph.

  • Sunday Night

    Clear. Low of 32F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Monday

    Clear. High of 61F. Winds from the WSW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Monday Night

    Clear in the evening, then partly cloudy. Low of 37F. Winds from the WSW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Tuesday

    Mostly cloudy. High of 68F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Tuesday Night

    Overcast. Low of 46F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Wednesday

    Mostly cloudy. High of 72F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Wednesday Night

    Mostly cloudy. Low of 54F. Winds from the SSW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Thursday

    Mostly cloudy. High of 77F. Winds from the SW at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Thursday Night

    Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Fog overnight. Low of 41F. Winds from the WSW at 5 to 15 mph shifting to the NNW after midnight. Chance of rain 50%.

  • Friday

    Clear. High of 63F. Breezy. Winds from the NNW at 10 to 20 mph.

  • Friday Night

    Clear. Low of 30F. Winds from the NNW at 5 to 15 mph.

  • Saturday

    Clear. High of 46F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Saturday Night

    Clear. Low of 41F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Sunday

    Partly cloudy. High of 59F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Sunday Night

    Clear. Low of 41F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Monday

    Clear. High of 61F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Monday Night

    Clear. Low of 39F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Tuesday

    Clear. High of 59F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Tuesday Night

    Clear. Low of 39F. Winds less than 5 mph.

Personal Weather Stations

Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]

Location: Cosgrove Hill, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 1:44 AM EDT

Temperature: 51.1 °F Dew Point: 47 °F Humidity: 87% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.77 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: - Graphs

Location: Smith Middle School, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 1:44 AM EDT

Temperature: 49.0 °F Dew Point: 46 °F Humidity: 91% Wind: NW at 2.0 mph Pressure: 29.40 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.03 in Windchill: 49 °F Graphs

Location: NC Botanical Garden, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 1:44 AM EDT

Temperature: 48.9 °F Dew Point: 46 °F Humidity: 89% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.78 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.04 in Windchill: 49 °F Graphs

Location: Carrboro Elementary, Carrboro, NC

Updated: 1:44 AM EDT

Temperature: 48.5 °F Dew Point: 46 °F Humidity: 91% Wind: NNW at 1.0 mph Pressure: 29.78 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.04 in Windchill: 48 °F Graphs

Location: Hogan Woods Circle, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 1:40 AM EDT

Temperature: 48.6 °F Dew Point: 43 °F Humidity: 82% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.90 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 49 °F Graphs

Location: Westglen, Durham, NC

Updated: 1:44 AM EDT

Temperature: 50.7 °F Dew Point: 46 °F Humidity: 84% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.79 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: - Graphs

Location: Duke Forest, Durham, NC

Updated: 1:43 AM EDT

Temperature: 51.0 °F Dew Point: 36 °F Humidity: 54% Wind: East at 4.0 mph Pressure: 29.43 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: - Graphs

Location: Edwards Pond, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 1:40 AM EDT

Temperature: 47.4 °F Dew Point: 45 °F Humidity: 90% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.78 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.12 in Windchill: 47 °F Graphs

Location: Chancellors Ridge, Durham, NC

Updated: 1:44 AM EDT

Temperature: 51.6 °F Dew Point: 38 °F Humidity: 59% Wind: North at 2.2 mph Pressure: 29.72 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: - Graphs

Location: Stoneycreek Neighborhood, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 1:44 AM EDT

Temperature: 48.3 °F Dew Point: 46 °F Humidity: 91% Wind: NNW at 1.0 mph Pressure: 29.76 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.03 in Windchill: 48 °F Graphs

Location: Lakewood, Durham, NC

Updated: 1:35 AM EDT

Temperature: 49.7 °F Dew Point: 44 °F Humidity: 81% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.76 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 50 °F Graphs

Location: Lystra Estates, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 1:40 AM EDT

Temperature: 49.0 °F Dew Point: 46 °F Humidity: 91% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.74 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.22 in Windchill: 49 °F Graphs

Location: 510sRus@ Pinedale Dr, Durham, NC

Updated: 1:44 AM EDT

Temperature: 48.6 °F Dew Point: 45 °F Humidity: 87% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.76 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 49 °F Graphs

Location: Trinity Park, Durham, NC

Updated: 1:44 AM EDT

Temperature: 49.5 °F Dew Point: 45 °F Humidity: 84% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.75 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 50 °F Graphs

Location: Cedar Grove, Pittsboro, NC

Updated: 1:40 AM EDT

Temperature: 47.3 °F Dew Point: 46 °F Humidity: 95% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.75 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 47 °F Graphs

Location: Briar Chapel, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 1:38 AM EDT

Temperature: 48.8 °F Dew Point: 47 °F Humidity: 94% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.73 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.07 in Windchill: 49 °F Graphs

Location: Frosty Meadow, Pittsboro, NC

Updated: 1:39 AM EDT

Temperature: 47.9 °F Dew Point: 47 °F Humidity: 97% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.76 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.14 in Windchill: 48 °F Graphs

Location: Cane Creek View, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 1:31 AM EDT

Temperature: 49.3 °F Dew Point: 47 °F Humidity: 92% Wind: NNW at 6.3 mph Pressure: 29.65 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 47 °F Graphs

Location: Cane Creek View-2, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 1:44 AM EDT

Temperature: 49.5 °F Dew Point: 47 °F Humidity: 91% Wind: NNW at 8.3 mph Pressure: 29.17 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.16 in Windchill: 46 °F Graphs

Location: Churton Grove, Hillsborough, NC

Updated: 1:44 AM EDT

Temperature: 47.7 °F Dew Point: 45 °F Humidity: 90% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.79 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 48 °F Graphs

Location: Cary Park, Cary, NC

Updated: 1:40 AM EDT

Temperature: 51.2 °F Dew Point: 46 °F Humidity: 83% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.27 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: - Graphs

Location: Cary Park, Cary, NC

Updated: 1:44 AM EDT

Temperature: 50.0 °F Dew Point: 46 °F Humidity: 85% Wind: ESE at 3.0 mph Pressure: 29.78 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.01 in Windchill: - Graphs

Location: Heritage Heights, Durham, NC

Updated: 1:33 AM EDT

Temperature: 48.6 °F Dew Point: 45 °F Humidity: 86% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.64 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 49 °F Graphs

Location: Country Lane Estates, Durham, NC

Updated: 1:44 AM EDT

Temperature: 48.9 °F Dew Point: 45 °F Humidity: 87% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.07 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 49 °F Graphs

Location: Copperleaf, Cary, NC

Updated: 1:44 AM EDT

Temperature: 50.4 °F Dew Point: 48 °F Humidity: 93% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.75 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.07 in Windchill: - Graphs

Location: NE Durham County, (DW), Durham, NC

Updated: 1:44 AM EDT

Temperature: 48.9 °F Dew Point: 43 °F Humidity: 79% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.67 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 49 °F Graphs

Location: Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 1:44 AM EDT

Temperature: 46.3 °F Dew Point: 45 °F Humidity: 94% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.74 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.14 in Windchill: 46 °F Graphs

Location: Twin Lakes, Cary, NC

Updated: 1:29 AM EDT

Temperature: 50.0 °F Dew Point: 41 °F Humidity: 72% Wind: South at 1.7 mph Pressure: 29.56 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: - Graphs

Location: Swann's Mill, Durham, NC

Updated: 1:33 AM EDT

Temperature: 46.6 °F Dew Point: 45 °F Humidity: 94% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.58 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 47 °F Graphs

Location: Jordan Lake, Pittsboro, NC

Updated: 1:40 AM EDT

Temperature: 50.1 °F Dew Point: 48 °F Humidity: 91% Wind: WNW at 1.0 mph Pressure: 29.76 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.10 in Windchill: - Graphs

Location: Cascades, Hillsborough, NC

Updated: 1:39 AM EDT

Temperature: 47.0 °F Dew Point: 46 °F Humidity: 95% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.68 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 47 °F Graphs

Location: Overlook, Cary, NC

Updated: 1:30 AM EDT

Temperature: 49.8 °F Dew Point: 46 °F Humidity: 87% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.83 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 50 °F Graphs

Location: Calander Estates, Durham, NC

Updated: 1:44 AM EDT

Temperature: 48.6 °F Dew Point: 44 °F Humidity: 83% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.06 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 49 °F Graphs

MSN Maps of:

Temp: Dew Point: Humidity Wind Pressure Hr Precip -

NWS Forecaster Discussion




Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Raleigh NC 
920 PM EDT Friday Oct 31 2014 


Synopsis... a strong low pressure will develop over the 
southern North Carolina tonight... then track off the coast 
Saturday. Cold high pressure will build in from the northwest 
Saturday night through Monday. 


&& 


Near term /through Saturday night/... 
as of 915 PM Friday... 


The only update for the evening and overnight period will be to add 
the chance of thunderstorms to the western Piedmont and western 
sandhills. Rain is expected to overspread the western and central 
zones... with more scattered activity in the east overnight. 


The 00z/01 November data analysis indicated the closed middle/upper low 
over the lower Ohio Valley was digging south-southeast toward the 
Knoxville/Asheville areas. Scattered convection... some 
producing small hail and frequent lightning... continued to 
develop/spread eastward from the southern foothills into the 
southwestern Piedmont. Strong lift from the approaching middle level 
circulation combined with the residual weak instability has been 
responsible for the convection that has made it to very near the 
Yadkin River as of 920 PM. As this convection shifts east... 
weakening is expected as the boundary layer instability is lost. 
However... the large scale strong upward motion will continue to 
allow for large areas of rain and showers to overspread much of our 
region overnight... in particular the western and central zones... 
as the lift area shifts east with time. Temperatures in the west 
will continue to fall into the 40-45 range... with readings in the 
east and southeast expected to rise from the current upper 40s into 
the 50s. Winds will likely not increase in the western zones until 
daybreak... and a bit later in the east due to the current projected 
track of the middle/upper low to our west and south... and the surface 
wave now developing over kclt (which will move slowly east toward 
the coast). 


Previous discussion follows below... 


This evening through Sat: primary concern remains the brisk and 
gusty winds expected to develop Sat afternoon... as the risk of any 
frozen precipitation in the far western and SW County Warning Area continues to decline. 
Pockets of brief heavier rain are possible over the western Piedmont... 
but should cause nothing more than minor street flooding at most. 


Overview: highly anomalous (heights dropping to around 5 Standard 
deviations below normal) middle level low pressure now dropping into 
northern Indiana is still expected to intensify as it drops southeast... 
to near avl by Sat morning... crossing SC Sat before swinging NE off 
the NC coast Sat night. The greatest height falls will be over SC 
(nearly 180 M in 12 hrs)... while they should be muted but still 
impressive at 80-120 M over central/southern NC. At the surface... 
primary low pressure just off the NC coast will move NE tonight... 
as secondary low pressure forms over south central NC. This low will 
track east along the central/eastern NC/SC border region Sat morning 
while slowly deepening... before moving east/NE off the NC coast Sat 
afternoon/evening while strengthening further. 


Pops: following the convection-allowing model trends and 
extrapolation of existing precipitation... will bring low chance probability of precipitation into 
the far western County Warning Area early this evening... spreading slowly east with 
probability of precipitation increasing west to east overnight. Given the intense deep layer 
forcing for ascent... peak in middle level deformation... and 
strengthening low level moisture transport... categorical probability of precipitation still 
look good for the western and southern County Warning Area focused on late tonight through 
middle afternoon Sat... as this is where the DPVA will be maximized in 
conjunction with the greatest upper divergence in the left exit 
region of the diving jet to our west... yielding deep and vigorous 
lift. However... both explicit and convection-allowing as well as 
the sref have trended toward much lower coverage over the NE County Warning Area... 
and based on the slightly more southerly track of the middle level low 
and associated DPVA and upper divergence... this trend looks 
reasonable... and have nudged probability of precipitation downward in areas North/East of 
the Triangle to 30-50% through the event. Will be slow to taper probability of precipitation 
down in the southeast County Warning Area Sat afternoon... given lingering steep middle 
level lapse rates and greater deformation here. 


Ptype and thunder concerns: models have been trending warmer with 
the boundary layer temperatures in recent runs... and now suggest a smaller 
chance of any mixed-in wet snow over a smaller area Sat morning... 
primarily along and southeast of a line from int to meb. But even here... 
yesterday's indications of a near-freezing isothermal layer with 
saturation well up above -10c are looking less certain... with 
warmer air around 925 mb and less moisture above -10c. Will continue 
to hold any mention of wet snow out of the forecast... given the 
very low chances... however wouldn't be at all surprised to see a 
little snow mixed in briefly... particularly if any instability can 
be achieved which would drive up precipitation rates. Forecast middle level 
lapse rates remain steep... 6.5-7.0 c/km tonight slipping just a bit 
to 6.0-6.5 c/km Sat... but with the potential for slightly less 
moisture through the column (pw values peak near 0.75" which is just 
near normal)... any lightning strikes would be few and only where 
extremely slim instability is augmented by intense dynamic forcing 
for ascent. 


Winds: it should take awhile for the surface winds to pick up Sat... 
given the initial slack gradient as the secondary low forms over 
south central NC. As this low shifts east and offshore and deepens 
during the day and Sat night... the rapidly tightening gradient 
should result in sustained winds peaking at 15-20 kts (potentially 
higher in spots) in the late afternoon through evening. Still expect 
gusts of 25-30 kts. This is just under Wind Advisory criteria... but 
impact-wise we should still see light objects getting tossed around 
and a few branches coming down... especially considering that most 
leaves are still on the trees. Wind chills may hold in the 30s 
to lower 40s over the western half of the County Warning Area Saturday. 


Temps: pattern of earlier forecasts to undercut statistical guidance 
substantially still appears prudent... with a chilly Canadian-source 
air mass moving in... strengthening cold air advection... steady 
precipitation for a good chunk of the day... and abundant cloud cover. But 
it may take awhile for the coolest and most dense air to get over 
the mountains... especially given the slow/late formation of the 
secondary low pressure which would retard cold air advection initially on Sat. Have 
nudged highs up a degree or so to 46-55 west to east... still well 
below statistical guidance. 


For Sat night: model output indicates quickly tapering rain chances 
from northwest to southeast Sat evening as the secondary surface low shifts off 
the Outer Banks. Will maintain likely probability of precipitation southeast and slight chance at 
most west for a few early evening hours... followed by very low to 
no probability of precipitation after 06z. Expect gradual clearing west to east overnight 
once northwest flow and downslope drying take over. The upper low will 
shift east off the NC coast Sat evening with height rises maximized 
over SC at 180+ M Sat night. Middle level temperatures will remain rather cool 
however as sheared vorticity streaking down through NC on the west 
side of the departing trough delays the offshore kick of the mean 
trough until after 12z sun... so we're likely to see lingering middle 
clouds Sat night... clearing out of the western County Warning Area late. Winds should 
be on a steady decreasing trend overnight but the boundary layer 
will stay stirred enough to limit full radiational cooling despite 
the chilly nature of the incoming air mass and its low dewpoints. 
Lows 33-38. A few outlying spots in the western County Warning Area will likely reach 
32f... but this should be the exception rather than the rule. -Gih 


&& 


Short term /Sunday through Sunday night/... 
as of 130 PM Friday... 


Fair but unseasonably cool weather is expected on Sunday as high 
pressure builds in from the west in the wake of the departing 
trough. Forecast soundings and cross sections suggest a few 
lingering middle-level clouds at the start of the day...but skies 
should become mostly sunny by afternoon given dry northwest flow. A little 
breezy still in the morning and early afternoon while the high is 
building in...until the pressure gradient relaxes later in the day. Low 
level thicknesses are prognosticated to bottom out about 50m below 
average...around 1300m early Sunday...recovering to 1315m by late- 
day. This suggests highs in the lower 50s...about 15 degree below 
normal. 


High pressure is then prognosticated to become centered over the Carolinas 
by Monday morning. Given the airmass in place...light winds under 
the highs...and mainly clear skies...the expectation is still there 
that most of our County Warning Area will see a growing-season-ending frost or 
freeze Monday morning. However...will need to keep a close watch 
for the potential for some orographic cirrus...given northwest flow and 
some moisture spilling over the Middle Ridge axis. While confidence in 
this happening is customarily low right now (3 days out)...if it 
does materialize...looks like it would be mostly across our far 
western zones...so a decent frost/freeze event across most of our 
County Warning Area still looks likely. For now...will leave lows as-is...ranging 
from the upper 20s west to lower 30s east. 


&& 


Long term /Monday through Friday/... 
as of 130 PM Friday... 


Ridging at surface and aloft will provide nice weather across central NC 
Monday and Tuesday. Thicknesses will continue moderating during this 
time...however with the surface high still centered over US Monday 
night...look for lows a couple degrees below normal Tuesday 
morning...upper 30s to around 40. Highs Monday around 60 and middle-upper 
60s on Tuesday. 


By late Tuesday...the high center will move off the coast...but the 
ridge axis will remain extended across the Carolinas. With low level 
flow becoming more southwesterly and a thickening canopy of cirrus with 
enhanced SW flow aloft over US...lows Wednesday morning will be 
warmer...in the middle-upper 40s. 


The next northern stream short wave will begin approaching our 
region during the day Wednesday and it's associated cold front crossing 
central NC late Thursday. Thus...Wednesday will see increasing 
cloudiness and warming nicely ahead of the front...but remaining 
dry. The best chance for any rain with this system will be on 
Thursday along and just ahead of the front...but moisture profiles 
across our area are modestly moist at best...so for now...will keep 
probability of precipitation limited to 20 percent or less on Thursday. Highs climbing above 
normal (around 70) for Wednesday and Thursday. 


Right now...next Friday looks to be breezy and cooler in the wake of 
the front...with decreasing cloudiness through the day. Highs 
cooling back down to near or below normal for weeks end. 


&& 


Climate... 


Record low-maximum temperatures for November 1st 


Low-maximum 


Rdu 50/1925 
gso 45/1925 
Fay 48/1988 


&& 


Aviation /00z Saturday through Wednesday/... 
as of 800 PM Friday... 


24-hour taf period: MVFR/IFR conditions associated with scattered to 
widespread showers are expected at the int/gso/Fay terminals 
overnight into Saturday morning (06-15z) as a potent upper level low 
digs south-southeast through the western Carolinas and a surface low pressure 
system begins to deepen offshore the Carolina coast. MVFR ceilings 
and brief showers will be possible at the rdu/rwi terminals between 
12-18z Sat...though confidence is low enough to preclude mention at 
this time. The primary aviation hazard associated/west this system will be 
strong northerly winds (nne to nnw) becoming sustained at 15-25 knots 
with frequent gusts up to 30-35 knots during the day Sat. Winds will 
increase at the int/gso terminals between 12-16z Saturday morning 
and between 16-21z Sat afternoon at the rdu/Fay/rwi terminals. 


Looking ahead: gusty northwest winds will persist Saturday night...then 
gradually weaken during the day Sunday as Arctic high pressure 
settles over the region from the northwest. Benign weather /VFR 
conditions/ will prevail Sunday through Wednesday as an approaching 
upper level ridge anchors high pressure over the region. -Vincent 


&& 


Rah watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...pwb 
near term...pwb/Hartfield 
short term...np 
long term...np 
climate...cbl 
aviation...Vincent 



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