marine weather discussion

NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL

250 am EDT Sat Sep 6 2008

Marine weather discussion for Gulf of Mexico...

Caribbean Sea and southwest north Atlc S of 31n W of 55w.

Gulf of Mexico...

weakening stationary front from S Alabama 26n93w lacks any punch

to disrupt flat pres pattern across Gulf. Light wind and slight

seas over most Gulf as high pres center W of front moves over

basin. Weak stationary trough over Bay of Campeche start moving

W increasing Ely winds S of 23n T moderate and seas to 4-5 ft.

Otherwise Gulf remains tame until effects of Hurricane Ike are

felt. Ike forecast to move across Straits of Florida/nrn Cuba

coastline late Mon night into Gulf and be near 24.5n 82.5w late

Wed. Refer to NHC advisories under WMO header wtnt24 / tmcat4

for detail information on position and intensity of Ike.

Model guidance slow to pick up fast moving hurcn Ike approach

across Straits of Florida. As Ike nears N coast of Cuba strong

Ely winds against Florida current should increase sea heights

well above 10-12 ft presented as nww3 solution. Hurricane

specific guidance show much higher numbers as early as Mon night

and double those figures by Tue.

SW N Atlc...

Tropical Storm Hanna N of area tonight moving NW at 17 kt away

from SW N Atlc. Maximum sustained wind 55 gusts to 65 kt. Deep

convection associated with Hanna continues to be considerable

and maintains storm force winds quite far in S semicircle still

affecting SW N Atlc basin. Seas 12 ft or greater extend 220 nm

in se and 150 nm in SW quadrants. Continued NW movement of

Hanna should bring warnings in SW N Atlc to an end before noon

today. Refer to NHC advisories under WMO header wtnt23 /

miatmcat3 for detail information on position and intensity of

Hanna.

Major Hurricane Ike just N of Mona Passage move W-SW at 14 kt.

Maximum sustained winds 100 gusts to 120 kt. Ike forecast to

move just N of Hispaniola today and sun then approach se Bahama

Islands late sun and Mon reaching N coast of Cuba Mon night.

Ike is dangerously intense hurricane with possibility of further

strengthening as it threatens marine and land interests. Refer

to NHC advisories under WMO header wtnt24 / miatmcat4 for detail

information on position and intensity of Ike.

Windward Passage presents an undefined hazard as hurricane

forced swells can increase dramatically in height when funneled

Through Channel and spread into nrn Caribbean. Marine interests

are urged to exert extreme caution in area N of Jamaica from

73w-80w as sudden large swell trains can occur.

Further E...Tropical Depression Josephine has weakened

considerably and not expected to present a threat to marine

interest in SW N Atlc. The last advisory for T.D. Josephine

will be issued by NHC at 5 am EDT under WMO header wtnt25 /

miatmcat5.

Caribbean Sea...

NW sections of basin might feel impact of Ike specially near

Windward Passage as mentioned above. Otherwise...weak pressure

pattern caused by hurcn Ike maintains moderate wind with slight

seas across entire basin. This changes Tue as Ike moves further

W and Atlc ridge rebuild in its wake. With increasing pres wind

S of 14n increase in ern half of basin.

Region S of Cuba in NW Caribbean might feel some stronger winds

depending on encroachment of Ike into island and protection from

Mountain Ridge...but Tropical Storm Warning cannot be totally

discounted for that zone.

Warnings...

subject to change based on latest NHC advisory

Atlantic...

Hurricane Warning from 20n to 24n W of 66w...amz080

Caribbean...

none.

Gulf of Mexico...

none.

Forecaster Wally Barnes. Tropical Prediction Center.