marine weather discussion

NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL

200 PM EST Sat Nov 07 2009

Marine weather discussion for Gulf of Mexico...Caribbean Sea and

southwest north Atlc S of 31n

Gulf of Mexico...

a very tight pres gradient remains across the Gulf between

Tropical Storm Ida S of the area and strong high pres to the

N-NE. As a result strong easterly winds persist across all Gulf

zones except the far NW portion. Buoy observations continue to

show NE-E winds in the range of 20-25 kt with gusts around 30 kt

over the se and S portions including The Straits of Florida and

waters near the Florida Keys. Cman station plsf1 W of the Dry

Tortugas has been reporting E winds of 30 kt gusts to 33 kt for

the past few hours. A 1216 UTC Quikscat pass also showed

numerous 30 kt wind barbs over the se-S Gulf. In addition a ship

with caller ID "wkpf" near 25n85.5w reported NE winds of 30 kt

at 18 UTC. The persistent and large easterly fetch of these

winds have resulted in building seas up to 13 ft over the

central portion of the middle Gulf...with 8-12 ft seas in the

majority of the remainder of the Gulf...except the far NW and N

waters where of 4-6 ft seas are prevalent.

The parent high center will shift to the E off the U.S. Mid-

Atlantic coast and the ridge over the Gulf Coast states

weakening. Tropical Storm Ida is projected to continue to move

to the N-NW over or just to the east of the Yucatan Peninsula

through the Yucatan Channel on sun...entering the middle/se Gulf

waters by sun evening. Ida has the potential to reach minimal

hurricane strength as it approaches the Gulf...although it is

then expected to weaken and transition into an extratropical

system Mon through Tue once it encounters strong SW winds and as

a strong upper level trough and attendant cold front move into

the Gulf from the south central U.S. States. Once extratropical

transition occurs storm force winds will still be possible over

the middle Gulf...with gale conditions also possible over the NE

Gulf by late Tue into Wed. Meanwhile the weak area of low pres

in the Bay of Campeche will drift to the N-NW and eventually

merge with the approaching trough/front with some of its

moisture and energy potentially being advected into the

circulation of Ida.

SW N Atlc S of 31n and W of 65w

a weakening cold front from 24n65w to 23n74w will stall out and

become nearly stationary tonight before dissipating on sun. A

tight pres gradient will exist between high pres just N of the

area and Tropical Storm Ida. In addition very cold air aloft

will move over the warm SW N Atlc waters. The combination of

these factors will result in increasing NE-E winds over the

majority of the waters today through Mon night. Latest wavewatch

builds seas up to 13 ft E of the Bahamas by Mon. Large NE swells

will propagate W through the Bahama passages today through Mon

with seas expected to build quite rapidly over the Gulf Stream

waters. The high will weaken significantly and shift off to the

the E Mon night through Wed as the circulation of Ida moves

closer to the E Gulf waters with a deep upper level trough and

sfc cold front approaching the se U.S. Coast. Seas will briefly

subside with winds diminishing Tue night into early Wed. Expect

another strong northerly wind surge behind the next cold front

by Wed continuing through the end of next week. As a result

building northerly swell will also return and propagate through

the waters by mid to late week.

Caribbean and tropical N Atlantic W of 55w...

Tropical Storm Ida has strengthened to 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt

and it has the potential to reach minimal hurricane status

before in departs the NW Caribbean waters and moves into the S

Gulf waters. Ida is forecast to track towards the Yucatan

Channel reaching near 20.3n 85.5w by Sun morning...and then

across the Yucatan Channel or just over the NE Yucatan Peninsula

through early sun evening. With Ida increasing to a 60 kt

tropical storm seas have quickly built. Buoy 42056 approximately

120 nm to the N-NW of Ida is up to 11 ft as of 18 UTC. The 12

UTC run of the nah wavewatch peaks seas at 30 ft in the Yucatan

Channel by 00 UTC Mon. Meanwhile light to moderate trades will

prevail across the remainder of the Caribbean. Seas over the

northern portion of the tropical N Atlc are expected to build up

to 6-9 ft in long period northerly swells Sun night through Mon

and possibly up 11 ft Mon night through Tue. NE swells will also

build seas up to 8 ft through the Atlc passages Mon night

through Wed. Seas will subside by late Wed through Thu...then

will build again by the end of the week as a new set of building

northerly swell arrives.

Warnings...

Atlc...

.None.

Caribbean...

.Amz082...Tropical Storm Warning N of 17n W of 82w...

Gulf of Mexico...

.Gmz084 and gmz086...Tropical Storm Warning expected Sun night

through Wed S of 28n between 84w and 91w...

.Gmz084...Gmz080 and gmz086...Storm Warning expected Mon night

through Wed N of 26n between 84w and 91w...

.Gmz086...Gale Warning expected Wed through Thu N of 26n W of

82w...

$$

forecaster lewitsky