marine weather discussion

NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC

1145 PM EDT Thu 7 Aug 2008

.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant

.Weather for North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.

A weak pattern continues across the offshore waters for the next

couple of days. Low pres se of Georges Bank late this afternoon

will move E of the area by evening then weaken and drift NE

toward Nova Scotia overnight and Fri. A trailing cold front

across the central nt2 waters tonight will drift slowly S to the

srn waters by late sun. Another cold front will move se across

the nt1 waters Mon then stall across the central nt2 waters by

late Tue.

The models continue to develop a series of low pres centers on

the front...moving each center NE across the nt2 waters. The GFS

and ECMWF are in close agreement through 60 hr with the GFS

trending toward the weaker ECMWF solution. Each GFS run is

slightly farther E with the front which keeps the developing low

pres centers along the eastern boundary of the offshore waters.

The result is winds 20 kt or less through the period. For the

second front crossing the nt1 waters Mon the GFS has 20 kt. This

looks reasonable for now. Finally on day 5 a low pres center

approaches the waters. The GFS and NOGAPS are faster and abt

5-10 deg N of the ECMWF and Canadian Gem. Prefer the slower

solution which will keep the sly winds ahead of the low to 20

kt.

For seas will use the model for the most part. The GFS keeps all

developing waves E of the area which helps to keep seas on the

low side. The only changes will be lower seas on day 5.

.Warnings/forecast confidence...Preliminary. Any changes will be

coordinated through AWIPS 12 planet chat or by telephone:

.Nt1 New England waters...

.Gulf of Maine...none.

.Georges Bank...None.

.S of New England...None.

.Nt2 mid Atlc waters...

.Hudson to balt cnyn...none.

.Balt cnyn to Hague line...None.

.Balt cnyn to Hatteras cnyn...None.

.Hatteras cnyn to Cape Fear...None.

.Cape Fear to 31n...None.

.Forecaster oszajca. Ocean forecast branch.