287 
FXPQ60 PGUM 212002
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
602 AM CHST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94W IS CENTERED ABOUT 550 MILES SE OF GUAM
NEAR 6N148E...MOVING LITTLE. IT IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND
WILL LIKELY BE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE THE DAY IS OUT. ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS MORNING...
WITH BRISK ENE WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRADE WIND SURGE SHOULD PEAK TODAY AND
TONIGHT AT 20-25 KT...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE FUTURE TRACK OF 94W IS STILL UNCERTAIN...WITH THE
LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS TRENDING A BIT SOUTH. GFS TAKES 94W JUST
NORTH OF ROTA WED...WHILE NOGAPS KEEPS IT JUST SOUTH OF GUAM...AND
ECMWF HAS IT PASSING ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH OF GUAM WED MORNING.
THE OUTLIER SEEMS TO BE THE UKMET...WHICK KEEPS IT WEST OF CHUUK
THRU TUE EVENING. IN VIEW OF THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE DONE LITTLE TO
THE FORECAST EXCEPT INCREASE POPS FOR WED/THU. HAVE ISSUED SPS FOR
THE MARIANAS.

&&

.MARINE/SURF...
HAVE GONE AHEAD WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRU NOON MONDAY FOR
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS...THOUGH IT IS MARGINAL FOR BOTH. BUT THE
COMBINATION OF 20-25 KT WINDS AND SEAS AT 10 FEET WILL MAKE FOR
ROUGH CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. HOLDING OFF ON HIGH SURF
ADVISORY...AS SURF APPROACHES BUT DOESN'T HIT HAZARDOUS LEVELS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
EASTERN LIMB OF THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUE OVER POHNPEI AND KOSRAE
THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS PORTION OF THE TROUGH TO REMAIN FAIRLY
ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF PERIODS. THEN AN INTENSIFYING
TROPICAL SYSTEM...94W...WILL DISRUPT WESTERLY FLOW IN CENTRAL
MICRONESIA. EASTERLIES WILL RETURN TEMPORARILY AND WEAK RIDGING
WILL MOVE WEST OVER KOSRAE AND POHNPEI LATE MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK.
ELSEWHERE...TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MARSHALLS. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ANOTHER TRADE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN ZONES BY
MIDWEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
APPENDED HEAVY SHOWER AND GUSTY WIND WORDING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OF 
THE CHUUK FORECAST. THIS WAS IN RESPONSE TO AN INTENSIFYING 94W.
CHUUK HAS RECEIVED OVER SIX INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO
AND WILL LIKELY RECEIVE AS MUCH THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS 94W
DEVELOPS INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND POSSIBLY A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY. CONVERGENT SOUTH WINDS INTO 94W WILL KEEP INCLEMENT
WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE ZONES THROUGH MIDWEEK. FURTHER
WEST...KOROR...NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WILL EXPERIENCE
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH
YAP WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO AVOID MOST OF THE
INCLEMENT WEATHER.

IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING FETCH LENGTH AND WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH 
94W...WW3 SUGGESTS SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL INCREASE TO THE 8 TO 10 FOOT 
RANGE. THIS WILL NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF A HIGH SURF ADVISORY 
FOR SOUTH EXPOSURES OF THE ISLAND BY THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CHST MONDAY FOR 
     PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/LEE

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