637 
fxpq60 pgum 072143 
afdpq 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service tiyan GU 
743 am chst sun Nov 8 2009 


Synopsis... 
pgua WSR-88D shows just a few showers within the marianas waters. 
Satellite and model data show little change in the dry weather 
trend over the next few days. Tropical storm 25w is far to the 
east-northeast and moving farther away from the marianas. 


&& 


Discussion... 
models continue to paint a dry picture through at least Tuesday. 
Radar and satellite offer little in the way of argument. In 
fact...the European model (ecmwf)-hires extends this dryness into Thursday. Current 
package handles this well so just tweaked the swells to fit the 
latest wave watch 3 guidance and extended the marine grids an 
extra 12 hours. Of some note is that we are now almost 2 inches 
behind on normal rainfall for November. This definitely places the 
Burden for catchup on the second half of the month. 


&& 


Eastern micronesia... 
little change from the previous update. Light trade winds and a 
quiet weather pattern will dominate through midweek. Then...model 
guidance suggests that another weak trade-wind surge will nose into 
the region. 


Surf will remain above advisory thresholds for Pohnpei and Kosrae 
through at least tonight. 


&& 


Western micronesia... 
convergence near the tail-end of a trough draped over western 
micronesia is largely responsible for cloudiness and scattered 
showers near Yap and Koror this morning. Believe that this feature 
will continue to waver over the region over the next several 
days...enhancing shower activity. Continued with isolated shower 
coverage though given the low confidence in shower placement and 
timing. Weather appears to remain quiet at Chuuk until above 
mentioned trade-wind surge moves into region late week. 


High surf advisory for Koror...Yap and Chuuk remains in place 
through tonight into Monday. 


&& 


Gum watches/warnings/advisories... 
GU...high surf advisory until noon chst today for guz001>004. 


Marianas waters...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Stanko/Lee