marine weather discussion

NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC

653 am EDT Sat 5 Jul 2008

.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant

.Weather for North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n

Attm I dont plan on making many changes to the upcoming fcst.

Will keep current trends. The prv discussion follows.

Over the short term...as was noted earlier about its 18z run...

looking at its vorticity and precip fcst fields believe the 00z

GFS conts to have convective feedback problems and as a result

is fcstg too strong a frontal low to track NE acrs the nt1 wtrs

today into tonite. Whl believe a frontal wave passage wl be lkly

wl anticipate a weaker sfc low and wl not buy off on the 25-30

kt ascd bl winds fcst by the 00z GFS and wl instead cont to fcst

at most Max ascd winds up to 15 or 20 kt as prevly fcstd.

Elsewhr with all of the latest mdls fcstg a strong sfc high pres

ridge to remain qstnry invof the far srn nt2 wtrs expect quiet

wx with lite conds to cont. So overall no sig short term chngs

are planned to the prev ofshr fcst package.

In the long term...the 00z GFS...tho slightly slower...rmns

consistent vs its prev 18z run and is gnrly sprtd by the 00z

Gem/UKMET in fcstg a rel strong sfc low to track ENE acrs se

Quebec Tue nite/Wed and pull a cold front se acrs new engld by

late Wed. Inadvof this front...as was done prevly...wl acpt the

00z GFS solution of a strengthening swly gradient dvlpg acrs the

nt1 and nrn/cntrl nt2 wtrs late Tue/Wed and wl cont to fcst

winds incrsg up to 20 or 25 kt as prevly fcst. Otherwise per the

00z mdls foresee making only minor tweaks to the prev ofshr fcst

package in the long term.

Overall the 00z wna wavewatch iii fcst seas look rsnbl. But as

has been its recent bias...blv Tue/Wed as the swly gradient

strengthens that the mdl wl anticipate a ltl too much low level

mixing...espec acrs the rel cool nt1 and nrn nt2 wtrs...and

hence wl overfcst the seas slightly there. Therefore again as

was done prevly plan on trimming on avg 1-2 ft off its fcst seas

then.

Warnings/forecast confidence...preliminary. Any changes will be

coordinated through AWIPS 12 planet chat or by telephone:

.Nt1 New England waters

.Gulf of Maine...None.

.Georges Bank...None.

.S of New England...None.

.Nt2 mid Atlc waters

.Hudson to balt cnyn...None.

.Balt cnyn to Hague line...None.

.Balt cnyn to Hatteras cnyn...None.

.Hatteras cnyn to Cape Fear...None.

.Cape Fear to 31n...None.

.Forecaster Shaw. Ocean forecast branch.