743 
fxus65 kbyz 052114 
afdbyz 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Billings Montana 
314 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2008 


Short term...valid for sun and Monday... 


Tail of a 70kt jet maximum was pushing through south central Montana 
this afternoon. This combined with a baroclinic zone that has 
laid down over southern zones...has developed scattered showers 
and thunderstorms mainly west of Billings. Cape not overly 
impressive and not as deep as yesterday. Shear straight line and 
not overly strong. Coverage should push northeast and decrease as 
the storms encounter more stable air. 


Another round of active weather looks in store for Sunday. A 
decently strong shortwave was prognosticated by the models to move 
across northern Wyoming and southern Montana. Another jet maximum 
will swing into south central Montana during the afternoon. Convective available potential energy 
should rise to 1000-1500j/kg. Shear strengthens during the 
afternoon as middle to upper level winds increase. The Storm 
Prediction Center has highlighted areas from Billings east with a 
slight risk of severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. 
Already have included in the zones and will let ride. Monday 
should be a dry day as the flow veers to the northwest. Clouds 
and northwest flow should keep highs in check the next couple of 
days. Expect seasonal readings. Humphrey 


Long term...valid for Tuesday...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat... 


Very few changes made to the extended forecast this afternoon. 
Models continue to remain in fairly good agreement. A northwest 
flow will remain over the area through the early part of next 
week keeping temperatures near normal for this time of year. Dry 
conditions can also be expected for much of next week with only a 
slight chance of precipitation for the mountains during the 
afternoon and evening. Some weak ridging does build in for 
Wednesday and Thursday with these days looking to be the warmest 
of the days of the week so far. There are some differences in the 
models by the end of the week with the GFS bringing through a 
trough. The European model (ecmwf) does not bring the trough until the weekend. So 
kept probability of precipitation everywhere for these periods with the uncertainty. 
Solum 




&& 


Aviation... 


Isolated thunderstorms will continue across the area through the 
evening. VFR conditions will continue to prevail although 
localized MVFR conditions will be possible with the 
thunderstorms. Solum 


&& 


Preliminary point temp/pops... 


Sun Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Sat 
----------------------------------------------------------- 
bil 061/085 061/087 059/084 059/090 060/093 063/090 061/082 
33/T 30/u 00/u 00/u 00/u 00/u 22/T 
lvm 051/083 051/083 048/082 049/086 052/089 053/085 052/078 
33/T 30/u 00/u 00/u 00/b 00/b 22/T 
hdn 060/087 059/088 059/084 058/091 060/096 062/094 059/085 
33/T 30/u 00/u 00/u 00/u 00/u 22/T 
mls 062/087 063/087 061/083 058/090 062/095 064/092 062/085 
22/T 30/u 00/u 00/u 00/u 00/u 22/T 
4bq 061/087 062/086 060/081 058/088 062/095 063/094 061/084 
23/T 30/u 00/u 00/u 00/u 00/u 22/T 
bhk 058/087 061/086 059/081 055/086 059/094 059/093 057/085 
22/T 30/u 00/u 00/u 00/u 00/u 22/T 
shr 055/082 055/082 054/080 053/086 056/091 055/090 053/080 
33/T 30/u 00/u 00/b 00/u 00/u 22/T 


&& 


Byz watches/warnings/advisories... 
Montana...none. 
Wyoming...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Weather.Gov/Billings