791 
fxus61 krlx 052330 
afdrlx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Charleston WV 
730 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2008 


Synopsis... 
upper trough drifts east into West Virginia...while stationary front 
remains through Sunday. Southerly wind flow brings moisture 
for the next work week with a cold front for middle week. 


&& 


Near term /through Sunday/... 
breaks in the early afternoon skies resulted in differential heating 
boundaries that served as focus areas for convection that should 
last through this evening. 


Upper short waves continue to move across the area with the main 
trough/surface low over the Ohio Valley drifting slowly east. This main 
trough will move over WV by afternoon Sunday providing some support 
for additional convection. Therefore...kept chance probability of precipitation across the 
area on Sunday with the possibility of thunderstorms. 


Temperatures tonight should stay in the middle to upper 60s except upper 50s 
over areas that clear. A warmer trend is expected on Sunday on. 


&& 


Short term /Sunday night through Tuesday night/... 
models show upper low drifting across the region...but timing in 
models varies with this feature. For this reason...will keep small 
probability of precipitation over the area but will not try to pin it down to an exact 
timing. Behind the upper low...southerly flow sets up and pushes 
abundant moisture northward. Will increase probability of precipitation on Tuesday afternoon 
as this moisture becomes ample for thunderstorm development. 


&& 


Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/... 
operational European model (ecmwf) and GFS show some fairly sizable differences for 
the extended forecast. Will stay close to the European model (ecmwf) ensembles for 
the forecast period. This brings a cold front over the region on 
Wednesday...stalling around or south of the region on 
Thursday...then moving back north as a warm front for Saturday. 


&& 


Aviation /23z Saturday through Thursday/... 
abundant low level moisture will continue across the area as a 
frontal boundary continues to meander over the area. Scattered 
convection will diminish after sunset...with loss of heating. Some 
scattered rain showers cannot be ruled out across the mountains overnight...but 
probability not high enough to include in mountain tafs. 


Break in the clouds will develop across the area late this 
evening...especially toward Ohio River vicinity. This will allow fog 
and low stratus to develop once again across all taf sites after 
03z Sunday...lowering to IFR/LIFR visible/ceilings 06-12z. Areas near rivers 
will experience mostly IFR conditions during this time frame. 
Conditions improve to VFR by 15z Sunday across all sites. 


Aviation outlook /after 00z Mon/...IFR conditions in fog early 
Monday morning along river valleys. 


&& 


Rlx watches/warnings/advisories... 
WV...none. 
Ohio...none. 
Kentucky...none. 
Virginia...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...arj/rpy 
near term...arj 
short term...rpy 
long term...rpy 
aviation...30