864 
fxus63 kdlh 082005 
afddlh 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Duluth Minnesota 
305 PM CDT Friday Aug 8 2008 


Discussion... 
brisk northwest middle level flow continues across County Warning Area this afternoon with a jet 
maximum at 30h pushing southeast across western County Warning Area. Left exit region of 
upper jet providing some assistance in generation of scattered 
convection along instability axis across southern Saskatchewan/southwestern ont. Some 
of these cells are meandering across NE tip of Cook County.Extensive 
canopy of middle/high cloud debris from northern plains convection has 
expanded east today. A few sprinkles may skirt the southwestern County Warning Area in the 
first period however the primary forcing for this area of upward vertical velocity will 
be shunted southward overnight. 


Tonight...early evening sprinkles over southwestern County Warning Area will diminish and 
scattered convection over NE arrowhead will dissipate. Otherwise...clearing 
trend expected as next surge of high pressure builds south from 
ctrl Canada. Should be enough turbulence supplied by increasing 
geostrophic flow to restrict extensive fog overnight. 


Sat/Sunday...pleasant weekend anticipated as region remains under 
influence of anomalous middle level trough over eastern Great Lakes. 
Significant drying in a deep layer should allow lots of sunshine 
with high clouds held at Bay to the west by sharpening of ridge 
axis aloft. Main noteworthy forecast element is extent of near lake 
cooling by developing onshore flow. Leaning more with cooler met 
numbers at this point. 


Extended...next precipitation chance arrives Monday...probably late in 
day for western/ctrl County Warning Area. Models have trended a bit slower with 
arrival of system. 


&& 


Aviation... 
high pressure remains anchored over the upper Midwest today...though an upper 
level disturbance is responsible for a middle and upper level cloud 
deck. This disturbance will pass to the west and south of the area 
through early evening. Clearing skies will take place tonight along 
with light and variable winds. Radiation fog may develop late tonight 
resulting in tempo IFR and MVFR conds. Winds will turn Erly on Sat 
as high pressure moves ewrd. 


&& 


Point temps/pops... 
dlh 52 70 48 72 / 10 10 10 10 
inl 50 79 43 79 / 10 10 10 10 
brd 55 81 49 80 / 20 10 10 10 
hyr 48 79 43 76 / 10 10 10 10 
asx 49 73 47 72 / 10 10 10 10 


&& 


Dlh watches/warnings/advisories... 


Minnesota...none. 
WI...none. 
Ls...none. 


$$ 


Cannon/liles