826 
fxus63 kmkx 050743 
afdmkx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 
243 am CDT Sat Jul 5 2008 


Short term... 
high amplitude pattern over western states will gradually weaken. 
A couple of short wave troughs will crash into the western ridge 
and flatten it...eventually turning the flow from northwest to 
westerly across Wisconsin. 


Today- 
one more day of decent surface and upper ridging keeping this 
quiet. Thermal ridge edges a bit closer with 925 mb temperatures 
approaching 20 c...so should be around 80 most spots away from 
Lake Michigan. 


Tonight- 
low level jet from Kansas into Upper Michigan. Given anticyclonic 
low level flow...expect dry weather to persist. Low dewpoints and 
light winds suggest it radiates a few degrees more than MOS 
guidance has. 


Sunday- 
first short wave trough passes through Wisconsin...with low level 
jet shifting a bit more to the east and extending from Iowa into 
Wisconsin. Most of thunderstorms should remain west of area until 
after dark...but do have slight chance west of Madison. 


GFS has lifted indices going to -10 in northwest Iowa and southwest 
Minnesota...and Storm Prediction Center has day 2 slight risk into western part of 
County Warning Area. This looks OK. 


Monday- 
another somewhat stronger short wave trough moves across the 
northern plains during the day and into Wisconsin and Iowa Monday 
night. Lower 70s dewpoints shown moving into area...with large 
area of -6 to -10 lifted indices across the upper Mississippi River valley. 
30 knot 850 mb jet aims right at southern Wisconsin...so expect an 
active afternoon and night with one or more mesoscale convective system cruising over or 
nearby southern Wisconsin. New Storm Prediction Center day 3 outlook has slight risk 
over extreme west and upstream. 


Long term... 
Tuesday- 
strongest trough in the series moves across Minnesota and 
Wisconsin...pushing cold front through during the peak afternoon 
heating. Low level convergent weak along front...but continued 
unstable airmass and increasing 500 mb flow to 50 knots associated 
with trough could result in third straight day of severe weather 
for area. Has been relatively dry as of late...but widespread 
flooding problems continue to make any heavy rain threat 
troublesome so will have to keep an eye on this wet period. 


Wednesday- 
looks cooler and drier in wake of front as high pressure builds 
into Midwest. 




&& 


Aviation...large high pressure will be centered over the southern 
and eastern Great Lakes. Areas of MVFR visibilities in fog until 14z 
are expected...with some patchy IFR in low lying areas until after 
sunrise. Some scattered fair weather cumulus expected around 4 thousand 
feet late this morning and afternoon. Inversion around 5 thousand feet with 
dry air above...so little vertical development. 


&& 


Marine...large high pressure will be centered over the southern and 
eastern Great Lakes. Some light fog/haze mainly this morning. 
Onshore winds should turn southeast with developing lake breeze. 


&& 


Mkx watches/warnings/advisories... 
WI...none. 
Lm...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short/long term...Craven/02 
aviation/marine...hentz/06