491 
fxus63 kgrb 121015 
afdgrb 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Green Bay WI 
415 am CST Friday Mar 12 2010 


Short term...today through Saturday. Dense fog this morning is 
the primary challenge this morning. Like yesterday...areas of rain 
temporarily caused ceilings and visibilities to rise for a few 
hours but visibilities have fallen to a quarter mile or less in 
much of east central Wisconsin and likely will in the central 
counties by dusk. There is a breeze...so there is some variability 
in the visibility as well. Will leave the dense fog advisory in 
place through noon for now. Steady rain should end in the western 
part of the forecast area by noon...with just a chance of light 
rain or drizzle across the entire areal this afternoon through 
Saturday. MOS guidance have generally been too warm with highs 
lately...probably due to the very mild air at 925m band 850mb. 
Clouds and a northeast wind should keep highs today and Saturday 
below MOS guidance in most places. 


Long term...Saturday night through Thursday 
the system that has lingered across the region will be finally moving 
far enough away from the area to bring an end to the chances of rain 
Saturday night. Have keep a slight chance of rain for this period to 
account for any lingering precipitation that may occur Saturday afternoon. 
High pressure builds into the region Sunday and will continue to dominate 
the weather pattern for most of the week. 


There is some concern about a slow moving upper level disturbance 
and fairly sharp trough that moves south southeast across the Central 
Plains and western Great Lakes. Main shortwave energy at this time is 
forecast to move south and west of the area...therefore did not add 
a chance of showers to the forecast Monday night and Tuesday. 


Went above mex guidance for Sunday and much of next week based on 
850/925mb temperatures. Mex guidance by early next week is heavily weighted 
to climatology during this period. Climatology would indicate normal 
highs are near 40 for this time period. 
&& 


Aviation...ceilings and vysbys at or below minimums at 
grb/atw/mtw/osh/pcz/y50/cli through middle morning...with slightly 
higher ceilings and vsybys at isw/auw/cwa/ste. Mainly IFR ceilings further 
north. Mostly IFR ceilings and vysbys expected tonight with local LIFR. 
MVFR and occasionally IFR conditions expected staurday. 
&& 


Marine...dense fog to continue this morning and may refom late tonight. 
&& 


Grb watches/warnings/advisories... 
dense fog advisory until noon CST today for wiz020-030-031- 
035>040-045-048>050-074. 


&& 


$$ 
Rdm/eckberg