454 
fxus63 kdlh 050205 aaa 
afddlh 


Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Duluth Minnesota 
905 PM CDT Friday Jul 4 2008 


Update... 
forecast in great shape. Made a few minor changes for the overnight 
period...mainly to account for the latest trends. Most 
notably...increased sky cover just slightly across our southern 
zones. A band of middle and high level clouds...associated with a 
vorticity maximum and enhanced area of lift...currently affecting portions 
of southwest Minnesota will progress eastward during the next 
several hours. While much of this cloudiness will remain south of 
our area...some high and middle level clouds may skirt our far 
southern zones. Otherwise...tweaked overnight lows in portions of 
the Iron Range..where dew points were in the upper 40s and low 50s 
at 01z. Rest of forecast unchanged. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 338 PM CDT Friday Jul 4 2008/ 


Discussion...high pressure over the Midwest continues to bring 
dry conditions to the Northland today. Another cumulus field has formed 
across the forecast area...but should dissipate this evening with 
the loss of daytime heating. As the center of the high moves off 
to the east...southerly flow will strengthen over the upper 
Midwest...drawing warmth and moisture north across the region. In 
turn...the atmosphere will become more unstable this weekend ahead 
of an approaching cold front over the Dakotas. The front will 
track east across the County Warning Area late Saturday night and 
Sunday...producing scattered showers and thunderstorms. With 
MUCAPE values ranging between 1500 and 3000 j/kg on Sunday...there 
is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms even through the vertical 
wind shear will not be that strong. The front will become parallel 
with the mean flow Sunday night...and become stationary over WI. 
It then appears a low pressure system will develop over the 
Central Plains and lift northeast along the front Monday through 
Tuesday...which will probably bring heavier precipitation to our southern 
zones. 


Aviation....VFR conds expected through the taf period...with the 
exception of some tempo MVFR in br prior to sunrise...mainly at kbrd 
and khyr. High pressure will continue to slide east of the area 
overnight. Scattered-broken cumulus will dissipate by sunset tonight with the 
loss of insolation. Winds will be light or calm. Low pressure will 
move into the Dakotas on Saturday...resulting in a tightening pressure 
gradient and gusty S to SW winds Saturday afternoon. 


&& 


Point temps/pops... 
dlh 55 80 60 82 / 0 10 30 40 
inl 55 84 64 82 / 0 0 40 30 
brd 55 84 65 85 / 0 10 30 30 
hyr 52 83 62 84 / 0 0 10 40 
asx 52 82 60 82 / 0 0 20 40 


&& 


Dlh watches/warnings/advisories... 


Minnesota...none. 
WI...none. 
Ls...none. 


$$ 


Bettwy