003 
fxus63 kmkx 092001 
afdmkx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 
201 PM CST Friday Jan 9 2009 


Short term challenge is determining areal extent of the second 
round of snow as the surface low passes to our south. The snow is well 
established upstream across Nebraska into western Iowa early this 
afternoon and moving east...with some lighter activity leading 
this area into northern Illinois. 


It appears our far southern tier of counties will get into this 
moderate band of snow. The best indicator at this point is the middle 
level total deformation...700-600mb...and the frotogenetic vector 
convergence within the dendrite zone. These are lining up across 
our far southern tier of counties. I think we will be able to Peel off 
the northern strip of counties from the Winter Weather Advisory 
tonight. That would include Iowa...Dane...Jefferson...Waukesha and 
Milwaukee. Though these areas could see an inch of additional 
accumulation...it wouldn/T justify keeping a headline going there. 
The far south could see another 2 to 3 inches on top of what fell 
earlier today...so will keep the advisory going for the border 
counties...including Racine. The NAM has the deformation band of quantitative precipitation forecast 
south of the border tonight...while the GFS is lined up right on the 
border...clipping Kenosha County. The new 12z European model (ecmwf) looks like the 
GFS. Things should wind down quickly after midnight. 


The forecast beyond Saturday is fairly quiet precipitation-wise. 
We get into a very fast/active northwest flow with moisture 
starved clipper sytems hitting US about every 24hrs. Weak ridging 
moves in for Saturday after this current low passes by. Then the 
first clipper arrives on Sunday with light snow or flurries 
possible. Another clipper for Monday and again Tuesday night. 


The other major story for next week is the dangerous Arctic 
outbreak expected. Temperatures will turn much colder by Tuesday 
and get progressively colder through the remainder of the week. 
Lows will be dropping well below zero with wind chills even 
colder. Highs will struggle to reach the single digits above zer0. 


&& 


Aviation...middle level frontogenesis band associated with expected 
light to moderate snow should stay just south of kmsn and kmke 
mainly this evening. However...this would affect kenw soon after 00z 
Saturday. Expect prevailing IFR conditions within any moderate snow 
bands at kenw this evening. Otherwise...expect MVFR to VFR ceilings 
at kmsn and kmke...with some MVFR visibilities in any light snow 
bands. The snow should move out of the area by around 09z Saturday. 


Weak high pressure moving into the area should turn winds to the 
north and northwest on Saturday. MVFR ceilings should persist into 
Saturday...with some mixing out during the afternoon. 


&& 


Marine...winds become northeast tonight into Saturday up to 15 
knots. This should be low enough to keep waves from reaching 4 feet 
and subsequent Small Craft Advisory criteria. 


The next chance for Small Craft Advisory conditions should hold off 
until Monday night...with strong cold air advection mixing down 
brisk north winds. 


&& 


Mkx watches/warnings/advisories... 
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 am CST Saturday for wiz067>072. 


Lm...none. 


$$ 


Short/long term...Davis 
aviation/marine...wood