188 
fxus63 kdlh 111443 aaa 
afddlh 


Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Duluth Minnesota 
943 am CDT Sat Oct 11 2008 


Update... 
increased probability of precipitation to likely in western zones based on radar trends over 
last few hours showing area of convection moving into the Brainerd/Cass 
Lake region. Models depicting these storms are located near an 
area of strengthening 2d-fgen along the warn front and positive 
h70 Omega that is prognosticated to continue to lift over northern Minnesota through 
the afternoon. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 347 am CDT Sat Oct 11 2008/ 


Discussion...main focus is slow moving system gradually moving in 
from the west and possibility for heavy rainfall. 


Kdlh radar as of 330 am showed scattered showers and thunderstorms 
across mainly the northwest half of the County Warning Area...in area of broad warm air advection and 
elevated instability. Storm Prediction Center mesoscale analysis shows higher middle 
level lapse rates working in from the southwest as well. Surface 
analysis shows a frontal boundary lifting northward...generally 
into area north of the Twin Cities as of 3 am. Heavy rain fell 
during the evening across the Iron Range with kdlh storm total 
precipitation of up to 3 inches. Will need to watch this area 
especially close over the next few days. 


The front north of the Twin Cities will continue to lift northward 
as a warm front today and tonight...with the frontal boundary/ 
inverted trough slated to stretch from northwest Ontario to near kfsd and 
then to Colorado by 00z Sunday. The front will then back up 
further into the Dakotas/western Minnesota on Sunday as a major upper level 
low digs into The Rockies and a ridge builds in the Great Lakes 
and Ohio Valley. The models are in generally good agreement in 
bringing the warm sector through most/all of the County Warning Area today into 
Sunday...and also paint the highest quantitative precipitation forecast across the northwest 1/3 to 1/2 
of the County Warning Area through Sunday. Sref and 4km nmm WRF simulated 
reflectivity also highlight this area...with one wave pushing into 
that area again this evening. The front will finally start to 
make an eastward push on Sunday night and Monday...as the front 
transitions to a strong cold front in the Dakotas. As the weekend 
wears on...the system will attain deep layer tropical moisture 
from the southwestern U.S./Eastern Pacific...including some 
moisture from the remnants of Norbert. This should all develop by 
Monday/Monday night with heavy rainfall possible along and ahead 
of the front. 


Colder air will work in behind the front by Tuesday...with 
scattered showers. Would not be too surprised to see some wet snow 
flakes mix in on Tuesday...especially in northern Minnesota. 


The weather should be fairly quiet for the rest of the 
week...until Thursday night and Friday...when a low pressure 
system/upper level shortwave will move in from the west and dig 
into the Ohio Valley. 


In terms of sensible weather...will highlight highest probability of precipitation this 
weekend in the north and west...and then increase probability of precipitation with the 
front as it moves east into early in the work week. Temperatures will be 
on quite a transition...with warm temperatures this weekend...and much 
cooler temperatures toward early-middle week. 


Aviation...mainly MVFR conds expected in the vicinity of showers 
through the taf period. Otherwise...expect VFR conditions across 
eastern areas through the afternoon. Thunderstorms are possible 
late Sat afternoon and into Sat night...moving from SW to NE. 


&& 


Point temps/pops... 
dlh 63 51 65 52 / 30 40 50 70 
inl 59 46 65 50 / 60 60 60 60 
brd 64 52 68 49 / 60 60 60 70 
hyr 73 53 75 55 / 20 30 40 60 
asx 70 51 72 54 / 20 30 40 60 


&& 


Dlh watches/warnings/advisories... 


Minnesota...none. 
WI...none. 
Ls...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CDT this afternoon for lsz140- 
lsz141-lsz142-lsz143-lsz144-lsz145-lsz146-lsz147. 




$$ 


Graning/Cannon