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fxus61 kbtv 300816 
afdbtv 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont 
416 am EDT Sat Aug 30 2008 


Synopsis... 
a weak cold front will move through the forecast area today...with 
only a slight chance for some light rain showers. High pressure 
will build back into the northeast on Sunday...and will dominate 
the north countrys weather through the week...with dry conditions 
and slightly above normal temperatures. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
as of 415 am EDT Saturday...a weak cold front and associated upper 
trough will be pushing through the forecast area today. Moisture 
is lacking with this feature and latest radar trends support this 
with only one batch of rain moving through west central New York 
at the moment. Local 12km WRF is handling the scenario very well 
and drys the forecast area out through the day with only a few 
light showers possible in the morning hours...especially over 
northern New York. Latest WV loop also showing signs of the upper 
trough pulling north which would support dry conditions as well. 
Skies should remain cloudy through midday as the trough pushes 
through...then clear out towards evening. Feel that mav/met MOS 
guidance is a tad too high for today so bumped this down a bit to 
be only slightly higher than yesterdays temperatures. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Monday/... 
as of 415 am EDT Saturday...Post frontal passage the weather couldnt look 
any better for the Holiday weekend with a highly amplified upper 
ridge building into the region on Sunday. Expect to see plenty of 
sunshine on Sunday and right into Labor Day...with temperatures 
rising above normals into the middle to upper 70s on Sunday...and 
into the lower 80s on Monday. Will certainly be some fog 
development in the usual locations Sunday night with great 
radiational cooling expected under clear skies and light winds. 


&& 


Long term /Monday night through Friday/... 
as of 415 am EDT Saturday...upper ridge and surface high pressure 
remains in control of the north countrys weather through the week 
with continued above normal temperatures and clear skies. Extended 
models do disagree a bit towards the end of the week with the GFS 
breaking down the ridge faster than the European model (ecmwf). This is mostly due 
to a difference in handling now Tropical Storm Hanna which should 
become a hurricane later this weekend. Latest 00z GFS has changed 
quite a bit from previous runs...while the European model (ecmwf) has stayed pretty 
persistent so have based the later portion of the extended 
forecast on the European model (ecmwf) which keeps the forecast area dry through 
Friday. 


&& 


Aviation /08z Saturday through Wednesday/... 
through 06z Sunday...MVFR ceilings with localized LIFR ceilings 
will exist through about 18z today as extensive area of clouds 
exists over the region. The clouds are in advance of a cold front 
that will be moving through the area between 13z and 18z. Winds 
will shift to the northwest once the front moves through...but 
speeds will generally be less than 10 knots. The cold front will 
also help enhance the potential for some light showers...but 
visibilities will generally remain in the VFR category. The 
precipitation will come to an end by 20z and only scattered clouds 
are expected across the region through the remainder of the period. 


06z Sunday through Wednesday...mainly VFR. Any isolated Post frontal 
-shra ending by 04z sun...then northwest flow ahead of strong middle/upper 
level ridge of high pressure builds into taf sites by Monday and Tuesday. 
Some valley fog will be possible each morning at mpv/slk between 07z- 
13z with vlifr conditions. 


&& 


Climate... 
with little precipitation expected over the next 2 days...the 
meteor logical Summer will come to a close on Sunday with record 
rainfall for June/July/August at some sites. Below is a list of 
climate sites with recorded rainfall through August 29th as well 
as the record rainfall for the Summer and 2008 rankings. 


2008 record 2008 
(thru 8/29) (jun/Jul/aug) ranking 
----------- --------------- ------- 
Burlington Vermont 15.96 in. 24.77 in. (1998) 7th 
Montpelier Vermont 19.27 in. 16.92 in. (2006) 1st 
St. Johnsbury Vermont 18.77 in. 18.27 in. (1998) 1st 
Mount Mansfield Vermont 27.60 in. 37.55 in. (1998) 4th 


&& 


Btv watches/warnings/advisories... 
Vermont...none. 
New York...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...lahiff 
near term...lahiff 
short term...lahiff 
long term...lahiff 
aviation...evenson/Sisson 
climate...lahiff