051 
fxus61 kbtv 051147 
afdbtv 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont 
747 am EDT Sat Jul 5 2008 


Synopsis... 
high pressure will dominate the weather over the north country for 
the weekend. A weak low pressure system will move into the area on 
Monday for a chance at precipitation. The next chance for 
precipitation after that will be midweek next week as a cold front 
moves over the region. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
as of 343 am EDT Saturday...nice day/evening on tap for the entire 
north country as ridge of high pressure remains over much of the 
NE. Frontal boundary moving eastward across mid-Atlantic/southern new 
eng currently...which will provide some clouds to southern portions 
of the County Warning Area during the day. Going into the evening hours...expecting 
any winds to abate allowing patchy fog to form. Staying fairly 
close to model guidance temperatures for highs today. Warming trend to occur 
over next several days as surface ridge mvs off the coast. 


&& 


Short term /Sunday through Monday/... 
as of 343 am EDT Saturday...Ridge still in place for much of 
Sunday going into Sun night. West/ Ridge now off the East Coast 
allowing for warm air advection to increase over the area...expecting cloud cover to 
increase as well during the day Sunday and on Monday. This will also 
be enhanced by weak shortwave moving up along the west side of ridge 
and over the County Warning Area...especially Monday. South-southwest winds will also set up 
over the area allowing for gradual increase in maximum temperatures. 850 temperatures do 
show trend ranging from 12-16c during this time. Will also 
continue mention of thunderstorm for Monday as daytime instability/heating will 
allow chance for some storms to form...espcially overc and S 
portions of Vermont. 


&& 


Long term /Monday night through Friday/... 
as of 343 am EDT Saturday...weak wave along west side of ridge 
clears the area Monday night. Some lingering clouds/--rw possible. Another 
ridge builds over area Tuesday ahead of next front for Wednesday/Wednesday night. 
Strong warm air advection on Tuesday ahead of front will allow temperatures to soar near 90f 
in some valley locales...but thinking is that increase clouds from 
approaching front will hinder maximum temperatures enough to keep areas blw 
the 90f mark...although it will be close. Frontal timing expecting 
mainly for Wednesday morning/aftnoon where best chance for any thunderstorm will occur. 
Front slides east by Wednesday night as ridge builds east out of the great 
region. Thursday night into Friday...will be incrly nice as surface ridge 
builds east into the County Warning Area behind exiting frontal boundary. Northwest flow 
will allow temperatures to be blw normal. 


&& 


Aviation /12z Saturday through Wednesday/... 
through 12z Sunday...high pressure will provide the region with 
mainly VFR conditions along with light winds. Only exception will 
be some overnight/early morning dense radiation fog at mpv/slk. Fog 
at mpv will disperse around 13z this morning. Expect a few stratocu 
today...and scattered-broken cirrus over southern portion of the area. More 
fog forming around 06z Sunday at mpv/slk with vlifr conditions. 
Winds today S-SW less than 10 kts. 


Sun...fog early Sunday at mpv/slk with IFR conditions. Fog Burns 
off around 13z. Otherwise VFR except areas of MVFR south-central Vermont 
with chance rain showers/thunderstorms and rain Sunday afternoon/evening. 


Mon/Tue...areas of MVFR with scattered daytime showers and 
thunderstorms...mainly during the afternoon/evening hours. 


Wednesday...scattered showers and thunderstorms with cold frontal passage 
areawide. Areas of MVFR and local IFR conditions possible. 


&& 


Equipment... 
the ASOS at Massena (kmss) is inoperative...only altimeter is 
being reported. Technicians are aware of the problem. In 
addition...the Massena ASOS will be out of service from Tuesday 
July 8 through July 17 as Concrete work begins on the sensor 
foundations. 


&& 


Btv watches/warnings/advisories... 
Vermont...none. 
New York...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...jn 
near term...jn 
short term...jn 
long term...jn 
aviation...rjs/Hanson 
equipment...btv