186 
fxus61 kaly 051116 
afdaly 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albany New York 
715 am EDT Sat Jul 5 2008 


Synopsis... 
the listening area will be between high pressure to the north and a 
stationary front just to our south today. The most unsettled weather 
will remain south of Albany...with mainly dry pleasant weather north 
of Albany. If anything...the front will slip a little further south 
tonight before slowly lifting back north as a warm front come late 
Sunday into Sunday. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
an area of showers...some with heavy rain...has developed across our 
extreme southern areas (around Interstate 84)...in the wake of a 
short wave that has actually exit the region. Another surge of 
showers in heading northeast from central PA toward the New York border in 
association with another short wave. IFR satellite indicates cooling 
clouds tops also moving northeast. Will have to keep an eye on these 
developments. The 00z mav and European models keep any measurable 
south of Albany today while the NAM does bring some quantitative precipitation forecast to Albany 
and even points a little further north. However...none of the models 
appears to have a handle on this latest surge of moisture 
(especially that over north central pa). 


Our preliminary thinking (not yet etched in stone) does bring a 
slight chance of showers north of Albany...and chances further 
south. With some marginal instability this afternoon...will continue 
the idea of thunder as well. The best chance for a completely dry 
day is across the northern rim of the Mohawk Valley and Adirondacks. 


More cloud cover will offset warmer h850 temperatures (reaching 
about +15c) over Albany by late in the day. We forecast temperatures 
similar to those of yesterday. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Monday/... 
if model trends are correct...the front will actually sag a wee bit 
further south tonight as another weak bubble of high pressure builds 
to our north. This should suppress convective activity somewhat at 
least from Albany northward. However...isolated to convective 
activity could still work into our southern areas so we will keep 
probability of precipitation going in that areas. 


By late Sunday...the front will finally begin to make its move 
northward as a deeper short wave moves along it. Chance of showers 
and thunderstorms increase in our northern zones. However....the 
front is also forecast to weaken as we begin to ridge aloft...and 
surface Bermuda high begins to swell. 


For now...follow the GFS solution regarding the synoptic mass field 
and even quantitative precipitation forecast. As is often the case with these types of scenarios... 
confidence in this period is lower than normal since specific timing 
of the passing of short waves is difficult at best. Also...with 
increasing precipitable waters  there is the risk of localized heavy rainfall. More 
about that will follow in our Hydro discussion. 


Went with a blend of all model guidance regarding low and high 
temperatures along with some local "tweaking." 


&& 


Long term /Monday night through Friday/... 
only slight chance probability of precipitation forecast Sunday night with warm humid air 
available...but not much to lift it. Tuesday could also turn out to 
be mainly dry with the GFS/European model (ecmwf) now delaying the arrival of the 
cold front until Wednesday. However...did keep a slight chance of 
thunderstorms in most areas for Tuesday afternoon...and a low chance extreme 
northwest part of the forecast area. However...lack of precipitation and 
lower amounts of clouds will make Tuesday very warm and have raised 
maximum temperatures to between the middle 80s and lower 90s for most areas. 


Probability of precipitation are forecast to gradually increase Tuesday night and Wednesday 
morning...reaching their maximum (around 50 percent) as the cold 
front moves through Wednesday afternoon and early evening. One more 
very warm and humid day for Wednesday with highs generally in the 
80s. 


Will linger showers/thunderstorms into later Wednesday night with low chance 
probability of precipitation...then forecast dry weather Thursday through Friday as a 
pleasantly warm and dry Canadian high pressure system builds in. 
At this point have forecast temperatures to be near or a little below 
normal Thursday through Friday with highs both days in the 70s to 
lower 80s...and lows Thursday night in the upper 40s to upper 50s. 


&& 


Aviation /12z Saturday through Wednesday/... 
VFR conditions at kgfl/kalb through early tonight as any showers 
remain to the south. After midnight tonight...calm winds will lead 
to fog formation...especially at kgfl where IFR/MVFR conditions 
expected. MVFR fog at kalb. 


Kpou will have persistent MVFR ceilings/visibilities through late morning..with 
IFR fog possible through about 13z. Have forecast vcsh at kpou for 
the entire taf period (through 12z sunday)...and have included the 
cumulonimbus qualifier for this afternoon and evening. Ceilings/visibilities become VFR 
this afternoon...even though haze will keep visibilities just barely VFR. 
After 02z tonight...MVFR visibilities due to fog with IFR possible if 
showers occur today or tonight. 


Surface winds will be light and variable at all three sites through 
the period. 


Outlook... 
Sunday through Wednesday...VFR/MVFR...chc shra/tsra...mainly PM and evening. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
expect unsettled weather at times to the south of Albany...as 
disturbances ripple along a stationary front found further south 
today and tonight. On Sunday...as the front begins to lift...the 
threat of showers and thunderstorms will drift north. 


Relative humidity values will be remain higher than yesterday...only dropping into 
the 60s in our southern areas...50s locally...as 35-40 across the 
Adirondacks. Full recovery expected tonight with either dew or 
wetting from showers further south. Relative humidity values tomorrow be similar to 
those of today...except a bit higher north. 


The wind looks to remain fairly light through the period. A 
northeast wind 5-10 miles per hour found over northern areas...while the wind 
will be more easterly at similar speed further south. Light and 
variable wind tonight followed a more southerly wind 5-10 miles per hour on 
Sunday. 


Increasingly warm and humid weather can be expected through early 
next week. The threat of showers and thunderstorms will be low...but 
cannot be ruled out especially in the afternoon and evening. 


&& 


Hydrology... 
no major hydrological concerns are expected throughout the period. 
However...having said that...we have issued a ffw for west central 
Dutchess County as a nearly stationary efficient core dumping shower 
(no lightning as of yet) has produced an estimated three inches or 
more of rainfall. Localized heavy rain will be certainly a threat 
not only today...but through the next several days as upper level 
winds remain light and precipitable waters  increase to well over an inch. We do 
not expect enough widespread heavy rainfall to impact overall water 
sheds...but any heavy shower or thunderstorm could produce localized 
sharp rises in smaller creeks as well as ponding of water on roads 
and areas of poor drainage. 


&& 


Aly watches/warnings/advisories... 
CT...none. 
New York...none. 
Massachusetts...none. 
Vermont...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...hwjiv 
near term...hwjiv 
short term...hwjiv 
long term...maglaras 
aviation...maglaras 
fire weather...hwjiv 
hydrology...hwjiv 






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