130 
fxca62 tjsj 051948 
afdsju 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service San Juan PR 
348 PM AST Sat Jul 5 2008 


Synopsis...high pressure across the Atlantic will maintain a 
moderate to fresh trade wind flow across the local area through 
Monday. A tropical wave now located over the local region will 
continue to move west and away from the area by Sunday...bringing 
with it an increase in winds...seas and weather. Tropical Storm 
Bertha will approach the local waters by middle week. 


&& 


Discussion...a line of showers associated to the tropical wave 
have move across the USVI...Culebra and Vieques earlier today. At 
this moment the line of showers is affecting the island of Puerto 
Rico generating showers and thunderstorms over the western half of 
Puerto Rico. This line is expected to continue to move west and 
into the Mona Passage before sunset. A much drier airmass will 
move over the local forecast area tonight. Therefore only isolated 
showers are expected to develop over the local waters with a few 
affecting the eastern coast of the island. 


Tropical Storm Bertha...continued across the far eastern Atlantic. 
Latest models guidances indicated that the system should maintain 
a west-northwest track during the next several days then meandering 
about 400 miles to the northeast of Puerto Rico by Thursday...representing 
a concern only for the marine community at this moment. 


&& 


Aviation...moisture associated with a weak tropical wave...across 
the U.S. Virgin Islands this afternoon will continue to produce 
periods of MVFR across tist and tisx until 22z. This activity will 
spread westward across Puerto Rico late this afternoon and this 
evening producing periods of MVFR and brief periods of IFR across 
tjsj until 23z and MVFR conditions across tjbq...tjmz and tjps later 
in the afternoon and early in the evening...until at least 00z. For 
the overnight hours mainly VFR conditions will prevail across all of 
the local taf sites. Latest tjsj 12z sounding indicated an east 
northeast wind flow...up to 20 knots...from the surface to around 
25k feet...becoming west northwest above 25k feet. 


&& 


Marine...a line of showers will continue to move across the local 
Caribbean and Atlantic waters through this evening. These showers 
and thunderstorms will produce strong winds and low visibilities 
for local mariners. Easterly swells associated to Tropical Storm 
Bertha will begin to reach our local waters on Tuesday night. 
Advisory may be required. 




&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
sju 78 88 78 88 / 50 50 10 30 
stt 78 86 78 86 / 40 40 20 30 


&& 


Sju watches/warnings/advisories... 
PR...none. 
Vi...none. 
&& 


$$ 


72/10/ 

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations

Non-Expanded Version (with abbreviations)