523 
fxus64 kmrx 071934 
afdmrx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Morristown Tennessee 
234 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2009 


Short term...(tonight and sunday)...upper ridge will continue over 
the area...and the atmosphere will remain quite dry. Should have a 
clear night tonight...with just some high clouds moving in on 
Sunday. Will mention patchy frost in areas where freeze program is 
still in effect...but does not look like frost will be widespread 
so no frost advisory. Will generally stay close to mav temperatures for the 
short term. 




Long term...(sunday night through saturday)...models and ensembles 
continue to exhibit variable run-to-run consistency with respect to 
track of system that approaches from the southwest by late Monday 
into Tuesday. Models had trended to a more southerly track...mostly 
south of our forecast area...before the latest runs have again 
suggested a more northerly track. Due to uncertainty...have not made 
any major changes to preceding grids/forecast. Balance of long term 
generally dry...although models hint at another system approaching 
by late in the long term. Have introduced slight chance probability of precipitation for 
next Saturday to account for this event. For temperatures...generally did not 
deviate significantly from mav/mex guidance values. 




&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Chattanooga Airport, Tennessee 40 76 45 71 52 / 0 0 0 10 40 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, Tennessee 39 72 40 69 49 / 0 0 0 10 30 
Oak Ridge, Tennessee 39 73 40 69 49 / 0 0 0 10 30 
Tri Cities Airport, Tennessee 34 71 33 69 44 / 0 0 0 10 20 


&& 


Mrx watches/warnings/advisories... 
NC...none. 
Tennessee...none. 
Virginia...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Ldw/lcm