538 
fxus61 kakq 072333 
afdakq 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia 
633 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2009 


Synopsis... 
high pressure becomes centered off the middle Atlantic coast tonight 
through Monday. A cold front crosses the area late Tuesday. High 
pressure rebuilds into the middle Atlantic region from the north on 
Wednesday. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Sunday morning/... 
clear skies tonight with more typical lows for this time of year 
(upr 30s to low 40s). 


&& 


Short term /6 am Sunday morning through Tuesday/... 
clr-MO/clear skies in store for sun and Monday as a large high pressure 
system holds over the region. Maximum temperatures in the upper 60s along the 
coast to lower 70s inland. Lows in the Lower-Middle 40s Sun night 
and upper 40s to near 50 Monday night. 


NAM/GFS differ on overall solution with frontal passage between two 
high pressure systems. Have went with the slwr solution later on Tuesday. 
Currently holding dry conditions with its passage. Highs should 
reach into the upper 60s/lower 70s for most. 


&& 


Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/... 
followed the European model (ecmwf) solution this forecast package. GFS not consistent in its 
handling of southern moisture. Cdfrnt moves offshore Tuesday night. Will keep 
slght chance probability of precipitation in for now (low chance across NC counties allowing for any 
southern moisture that may make it that far n). Forecast area may end up in the "split" 
zone between moisture to the north & S. 


1030+ mb ridge builds into eastern Continental U.S. For rest of forecast prd. P-gradient 
between deepening low over New England and this high will likely result 
in breezy to wndy cndtns at the coast. Dry and seasonable cndtns 
expeceted with a slow wrmup by next weekend. Highs Wednesday in the 50s...near 60 
Thursday and into the 60s Friday and Sat. Lows in the 30s and 40s. 


&& 


Aviation /00z Sunday through Thursday/... 
no major changes as VFR will prevail through the forecast period. With 
hi pressure just off the middle Atlantic CST...expect light S to SW winds 
through sun. Could see more of a southeast component alng coastal taf sites 
Sun afternoon. A cold front mvs across the area Tuesday afternoon/evening bringing a 
slight chance of precipitation with it. Hi pressure builds into the area from the west 
Wednesday with dry conds expected through the end of the week. 


&& 


Marine... 
both RUC/WRF indctg a several hour prd of incrsd winds (15-20kts) across 
the ches Bay this evening. So aftr coordinate with lwx...decided to hoist Small Craft Advisory 
headlines across the middle ches Bay through 05z. Winds then prognosticated to 
dmnsh aftr midnite. 


High prs builds across the marine area sun through Tuesday with winds at or below 15 
kts and seas 2-4 feet. Return srly flow begins to increases a bit Tuesday 
ahead of next cdfrnt. This front prognosticated to move across the area Tuesday 
night. Winds shift into north-northwest and increases into Small Craft Advisory range by late Tuesday night. 
P-gradient between deepening low over the NE and 1030+mb high building east could 
result in low end gales across the coastal waters by Erly Wednesday. Will cap 
gusts at 30 kts for now. 


&& 


Akq watches/warnings/advisories... 
Maryland...none. 
NC...none. 
Virginia...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 1 am EST Sunday for anz630-631. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...ccw 
near term...ccw 
short term...ccw 
long term...mpr 
aviation...am 
marine...mpr