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Weather

Dulles, Virginia

Current conditions

Temp: 73°	Dew Point: 45°
Humidity: 37%	Wind: WSW 14 mph
Visibility: 10.0 miles	Pressure: 29.64 in. -
Sky: Scattered Clouds

Next 12 Hours

3 pm	6 pm	9 pm	12 pm	3 am
Partly Cloudy	Partly Cloudy	Thunderstorm	Thunderstorm	Rain Showers
72°	74°	67°	61°	58°
Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database

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5-Day Forecast

Saturday

	Hi 76°
	Lo 52°

Partly Cloudy

Sunday

	Hi 72°
	Lo 43°

T-storms

Monday

	Hi 67°
	Lo 47°

Partly Cloudy

Tuesday

	Hi 68°
	Lo 52°

Chance of Rain

Wednesday

	Hi 70°
	Lo 49°

Mostly Cloudy

Local Radar

Local Satellite

Almanac

Average High: 75°

Average Low: 50°

Record high/year: 89° (1986)

Record low/year: 30° (1984)

Sunrise: 5:54 AM

Sunset: 8:17 PM

Detailed History

Forecast for Loudoun

Updated: 9:58 am EDT on May 17, 2008

	Rest of Today Sunny through early afternoon...then increasing clouds. Highs in the mid 70s. West winds 10 to 20 mph.
	Tonight Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Scattered thunderstorms in the evening. Lows in the mid 50s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
	Sunday Cloudy. A chance of showers in the morning...then showers likely with scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 70s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 35 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 60 percent.
	Sunday Night Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.
	Monday Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. West winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.
	Monday Night Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers. Lows in the upper 40s.
	Tuesday Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs in the upper 60s.
	Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s.
	Wednesday Mostly cloudy. Highs around 70.
	Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s.
	Thursday Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs in the lower 70s.
	Thursday Night Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s.
	Friday Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s.

Sun and Moon

Sunrise:	05:54 AM (EDT)	Moon Rise:	06:23 PM (EDT)
Sunset:	08:17 PM (EDT)	Moon Set:	04:11 AM (EDT)


Moon Phase

Today	May. 19	May. 27	Jun. 03	Jun. 10

NWS Forecaster Discussion

643 fxus61 klwx 171452 afdlwx Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Baltimore Maryland/Washington District of Columbia 1052 am EDT Sat may 17 2008 Synopsis... one front will sink south and stall near the Mason Dixon line this evening. A stronger front will move across the area on Sunday. Cool and showery weather is expected to persist through Tuesday as region remains under the influence of cold upper trough. Ridge of high pressure will build from the west late next week. && Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... one shortwave was located over the lower Great Lakes this morning while another shortwave was diving south from Canada into the upper Midwest. Shortwave one will affect our County Warning Area late today and tonight. Shortwave two will affect our County Warning Area Sunday. Shortwave two can be considered the stronger of the two. Shortwave one will have most impact across the northwest County Warning Area today...and that wont be until late in the afternoon. Overall...moisture and instability across our County Warning Area are limited. 12z kiad radiosonde observation indicated a precipitable water value of 0.48 inches...with relative stability. 12z pbz radiosonde observation indicated a little more moisture that can advect/pool ahead of the shortwave and its associated cold front this afternoon. Cape from the 12z NAM is virtually non existent across our County Warning Area except the extreme northwest...which could reach 100 to 200 j/kg. This is where any thunderstorms would be able to be sustained late this afternoon. Across the rest of the area...sunshine will fade behind increasing clouds. While today will be rather warm /went a shade above MOS/...winds will be noticeable this afternoon and could gust to 25 miles per hour at times. && Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Sunday/... there/S some disagreement among various models and the short range ensembles as to how far the front gets tonight...and how long any band of showers can last. Locally run WRF-arw brings showers south of District of Columbia /even if the front doesnt get that far south/...where NCEP models appear to break apart and dissipate the showers sooner. Short range ensembles also indicate paltry chances of measurable rain from District of Columbia south. Will reevaluate for the afternoon package...but WRF-arw has done well with convective precipitation lately...and will likely follow closely. && Long term /Sunday through Friday/... 500mb northern hemispheric height/anomaly for the past 5 days indicates a pattern shift...with a deep central Pacific trough...western Continental U.S. Ridge...and a developing eastern Canadian trough. Water vapor loop shows an upper trough passing overhead...as a strong wave rotates around the Canadian trough...southeast into the upper Great Lakes. 03z surface map shows a cold front off the East Coast...with the next cold front moving into the upper Midwest. 21z sref indicates better than a 50 percent chance of a combined probability of 500 j/kg MUCAPE/0-6km shear>30/convective precipitation across the eastern forecast area Sunday afternoon associated with the next energetic upper level system. With 60-70kts atop the convective cloud layer...gusty showers/thunderstorms are anticipated. A second reinforcing wave may provide showers Monday night into Tuesday. HPC favored 12z European and GFS ensemble members which held onto eastern Canadian upper low longer than 12z operational GFS. The 00z GFS has come into line with this thinking...slowing the warming trend offered by the ridge aloft to the west during the later portion of the work week. && Aviation /14z Saturday through Wednesday/... gusty southwest winds through this evening...under VFR conditions. MVFR locally IFR conditions possible Sunday in showers/thunderstorms...followed by a cold frontal passage Sunday evening. Gusty west-northwest winds expected with the frontal passage Sunday and Monday. && Marine... have already observed Small Craft Advisory gusts over some observation this morning...such as tplm2 with 20 knots at 10 am. Small Craft Advisory is in effect...and will continue tonight. Gusty showers/thunderstorms expected Sunday afternoon have the potential to prompt special marine warnings. Even outside of precipitation...anticipate Small Craft Advisory winds with the next cold front Sunday and Monday. && Lwx watches/warnings/advisories... District of Columbia...none. Maryland...none. Virginia...none. WV...none. Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 2 am EDT Sunday for anz530>537. && $$ Synopsis...bpp near term...bpp short term...bpp long term...sjr aviation...bpp/lfr/sjr marine...bpp/lfr/sjr

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Local Storm Report

05/15/2008 0900 am

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