349 
fxus65 kslc 211650 
afdslc 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah 
950 am MST Sat Nov 21 2009 


Synopsis...the first of two upper level weather disturbances will 
cross northern Utah today. The second system will push a stronger 
cold front across Utah late Sunday through early Monday. High 
pressure aloft will settle over Utah early next week...and remain 
the dominant feature through Friday. 


&& 


Discussion...the first of the two expected upper level trough to 
affect Utah will cross the northern half of the state today...then exit 
the area early this evening. A couple of definable vorticity lobes 
can be found in the base of the trough. The first moving across 
northern Utah at time pushed the surface front through the north last 
night. This feature produced...and is still producing light snow 
across the far northern zones this morning. The surface front will 
settle into southern Utah this afternoon and remain fairly benign as 
the associated vorticity lobe lifts east-NE into Wyoming this afternoon. A 
second vorticity lobe may generate additional light snow over the 
northern/central zones as this feature drags a little cooler middle-level air 
further south into the state this afternoon. 


A shortwave ridge will develop tonight ahead of the second upper 
trough scheduled to arrive for late Sunday through early Monday. 
The various model guidance remain consistent with their respective 
model runs...with the 00z European model (ecmwf) still offering the best threat for 
substantial precipitation Sunday night/Monday. For now will continue 
along with the solution put forth by the better performing European model (ecmwf) 
and keep the higher threat of precipitation going in the forecast. 
Mountain snows may be sufficient for highlights...though these 
would likely be issued with tonight forecast package. 


Solid ridging beginning early in the coming week will maintain dry 
and stable conditions statewide through at least early Friday. 
The higher elevations will see a warming trend during the week... 
with the valleys climbing more slowly based on snow cover and 
elevation. 


May issued an update for clouds/precip...though no major changes 
anticipated at this time. 


&& 


Aviation...winds at the slc terminal will remain from the north 
through the day. Ceilings are expected to remain around 7000ft 
through the day...but may briefly drop to around 6000ft. VFR 
conditions will prevail through the taf forecast period. 


&& 


Slc watches/warnings/advisories... 
Utah...none. 
Wyoming...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Public...Conger 
aviation...hosenfeld 


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