090 
fxus64 kshv 181953 
afdshv 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Shreveport la 
253 PM CDT Friday Jul 18 2008 


Discussion... 
widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have developed 
across northern la...deep East Texas...and southern Arkansas...as the resident upper 
ridge has retreated westward and Gulf moisture has begun to replenish 
itself. Inverted trough continues to kick off showers to the S of 
the four state region. Activity will likely spread westward into East Texas 
this afternoon...so included slight chance probability of precipitation for this 
afternoon/evening for the southeastern portion of the County Warning Area. 


For the next few days...looks like a fairly quiet pattern at least 
for the first part of next week...as another upper ridge builds in 
from the east. Both the Euro and the GFS bring a tropical system into 
the Gulf early next week...however...both models are bringing it well 
south of Brownsville at this time. It will be interesting to see the trend 
over the next couple of days...but current forecasts indicate that it 
will not affect the four state region. Expect near normal temperatures. 


For the extended...the ridge begins to migrate nwwd by late next 
weekend...and allows for some weak shortwaves to round the northestern periphery. 
This should allow for isolated to scattered afternoon convection 
across the area. /12/ 


&& 


Aviation... 
isolated to widely scattered convection has developed as anticipated 
this afternoon across deep East Texas into north central la/scntrl Arkansas in vc of 
the inverted trough axis extending from the weak upper low centered 
about 100 nm S of bro this afternoon. Still expecting this 
convection to drift west-northwest into East Texas S of I-20...as well as northwest la/SW Arkansas 
through early evening before diminishing between 2-5z. Could see 
brief MVFR visibilities/ceilings in/near convection...but otherwise...mostly 
VFR conditions are expected to persist during the next 24 hours. May 
have some lingering high based cumulus/cirrus this 
evening/overnight...before scattered cumulus field redevelops areawide between 
15-17z Saturday. With the upper low expected to move further inland 
across central Texas Saturday...widely scattered convection will be 
possible areawide by afternoon as increased moisture advection 
interacts with ample heating. However...later shifts will 
monitor/may add in cumulonimbus/S during later taf issuances. Light srly winds 
tonight will become S 5-10kts by late morning Saturday. /15/ 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
shv 73 96 72 97 74 / 20 10 0 10 0 
mlu 71 96 73 96 72 / 20 10 0 10 0 
deq 67 97 68 98 69 / 0 0 0 10 0 
txk 73 97 72 97 73 / 10 0 0 10 0 
eld 71 96 71 97 72 / 20 0 0 10 0 
tyr 73 98 72 97 74 / 10 10 0 10 0 
ggg 72 97 72 97 74 / 10 10 0 10 0 
lfk 70 96 71 96 73 / 20 20 10 10 0 


&& 


Shv watches/warnings/advisories... 
Arkansas...none. 
La...none. 
OK...none. 
Texas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


12/15