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Area forecast discussion...update 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas 
506 PM CDT Friday Jul 18 2008 


Aviation... 
VFR conditions will prevail through Saturday afternoon. A few 
showers may develop over south Texas Saturday afternoon in an area of 
weak large scale lift. However...all of the showers should remain 
well south of the taf sites. 


Expect a south to southeast wind at speeds generally less than 10 
knots...but a few higher gusts are possible early this evening and 
again Saturday afternoon. 


79... 
&& 






Discussion... 
330 PM 
hot and dry weather will continue through the next several days. 
Water vapor loop and model forecasts show a TUTT low near 
Brownsville...which will will make steady progress westward into 
Mexico over the weekend. 330k-340k isentropic forecasts indicate 
subsidence on the northern and western side of this feature 
Saturday which will suppress any chance of convection here. A 
late afternoon shower will be possible Sunday over the southern 
zones as vertical motions become neutral...but lack of deep 
moisture will keep coverage very isolated and it is not Worth a 
mention in the worded forecasts. An increase in high clouds and 
slightly lower 500 mb heights should result in temperatures a 
degree or two cooler over the weekend. However...heights/thickness 
values increase substantially on Monday as the TUTT moves out of 
the picture and I expect temperatures to reach 100 in several 
locations. The upper high will move/expand northwest by middle week 
with temperatures a degree or two cooler for Tuesday and Wednesday. 


A strong tropical wave currently in the Caribbean Sea offers the 
only chance for an interruption in the hot and dry mantra. Global 
models are showing potential for tropical cyclone formation as it 
enters the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico during the next 
couple days. The ultimate track/strength of this system is highly 
uncertain now...but GFS/European model (ecmwf) forecasts are suggesting that the 
core of this system will move into Mexico or south Texas as the 
upper ridge remains strong over the plains. Will Show Low chances 
of mainly afternoon showers and storms Wednesday-Friday across the 
southern zones as some of this moisture spills into the region. 
Southeasterly low level flow will help keep temperatures near normal... 
but this will be counteracted by an increase in humidity. 


Tr.92 




&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 76 98 77 98 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Waco, Texas 75 98 74 99 76 / 0 0 0 5 5 
Paris, Texas 72 96 72 96 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Denton, Texas 73 99 74 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 
McKinney, Texas 71 97 72 98 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Dallas, Texas 77 98 77 98 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Terrell, Texas 74 97 73 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Corsicana, Texas 73 95 73 96 75 / 0 0 0 5 5 
Temple, Texas 72 97 72 98 73 / 0 5 5 10 5 


&& 


Forward watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$