817 
fxus64 kewx 061145 
afdewx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas 
645 am CDT sun Jul 6 2008 


Aviation... 
isolated rain showers will increase in areal coverage later this morning, 
peak at scattered rain showers/thunderstorms and rain this afternoon, and then decrease to 
isolated rain showers this evening into the overnight. Peak impact times 
at taf sites between 18z and 22z with slight chances as early 16z 
and late as 03z. Patchy IFR/MVFR ceilings can be expected early this 
morning and overnight, as well as in shra/tsra. Otherwise, VFR 
skies with areas of higher ceilings will prevail. IFR/MVFR visibilities are 
possible in shra/tsra. Variable mainly southerly winds less than 5 kts 
will become southerly 5 to 15 kts late morning into early evening, then 
variable mainly southerly less than 5 kts tonight. Some gusts to around 
30 kts are possible in and near shra/tsra. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 300 am CDT sun Jul 6 2008/ 


Discussion... 
a disorganized upper level low across northeastern Mexico will stay 
relatively stationary through the beginning of this week enabling 
the juicy airmass to remain over south Texas. Showers and thunderstorms 
will develop once again today...peaking during the afternoon and early 
evening hours in response to maximum heating. As has also been the case 
over the past few days...the best chance for rain will be across 
the southern half of the County Warning Area with probability of precipitation decreasing to the north. 
Due to the tropical nature of the convective activity (pw values 
continue to hover near 2 inches)...heavy downpours and gusty winds 
can be expected with the strongest of the storms. 


Little change is expected in this pattern through the middle of this 
week. Rain chances will decrease (and then disappear) through the 
latter half of the week and into the weekend as the upper ridge 
strengthens across the Gulf. Meanwhile...temperatures will continue 
to be at to a few degrees below early July normals through the 
next few days with a warming trend late in the week in response to 
the drier conditions. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Austin Camp Mabry 95 72 93 72 94 / 30 20 30 20 30 
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 94 69 93 70 93 / 30 20 30 20 30 
del Rio International Airport 89 72 89 73 91 / 40 30 50 30 40 
San Antonio International Airport 91 71 90 73 92 / 40 30 40 20 30 


&& 


Ewx watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


25/04