483 
fxus64 kcrp 200900 
afdcrp 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas 
400 am CDT sun Jul 20 2008 


Short-term (today through monday)...concur with the GFS that the 
decreasing influence of an upper trough to the west will combine with 
moisture/instability to generate convection this afternoon and evening over 
the County warning forecast area. Then...an upper ridge will build over the region and 
contribute to cin sufficient to prohibit convection Monday... 
consistent with GFS output. Expect heat index values will remain below 
105f drg the afternoon hours. 


&& 


Marine...expect seas to remain below scec drg the period owing to 
the weak mslp gradient. Hwr...scec wind anticipated for the bays/ 
nearshore waters drg the afternoon hours today. Isolated convection expected 
this morning. 


&& 


Aviation...generally VFR conditions expected drg the period... 
except for early morning patchy fog...and MVFR conditions near 
convection. 


&& 


Long term (monday night through sunday)...models continue to bring a 
tropical system/abundant tropical moisture toward the coast 
beginning Tuesday. Both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) bring a closed surface feature 
just S of bro by Wednesday with precipitation increasing significantly across the 
region. There still remains uncertainty in timing and where this 
feature will ultimately track. For now went with 30 probability of precipitation for Tuesday 
across the east then shifting inland and increasing Tuesday night/Wed. 
Given the uncertainty...did not want to go more than likely across 
the southern County Warning Area on Wednesday. The models keep rain in forecast through the 
extended...however if a tropopause system does move west of the area by 
Thursday...this would have high pressure building in across the region 
in its wake. The models also forecast a middle level ridge to build in from 
the NE which would decrease rain chances. Therefore have shown a 
general trend of decreasing probability of precipitation the latter half of the week with 
Thursday having at most 40 probability of precipitation...Friday 30 probability of precipitation and Sat/sun 20 probability of precipitation. 
Have increased cloud cover for the middle of the week given the 
expected increase in tropopause moisture and have lowered mx temperatures as 
well. Otherwise went with persistence on temperatures on Tuesday and toward the 
weekend. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Corpus Christi 93 72 95 73 94 / 10 0 10 10 30 
Victoria 96 71 97 72 97 / 20 10 10 20 30 
Laredo 100 76 102 77 102 / 10 10 10 10 10 
Alice 97 70 99 72 98 / 20 10 10 10 30 
Rockport 91 77 93 79 90 / 20 0 10 20 30 
Cotulla 99 71 101 72 100 / 10 10 10 10 10 
Kingsville 95 71 97 72 96 / 10 0 10 10 30 
Navy corpus 90 76 92 80 89 / 10 0 10 20 30 


&& 


Crp watches/warnings/advisories... 
Texas...none. 
GM...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Wc/87...short term 
te/81...long term