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Area forecast discussion...update 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas 
505 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2008 


Aviation... 
VFR through the period with few to scattered cumulus early this evening 
and during the day Sunday. A south wind will prevail between 8 and 
13 knots through Sunday afternoon. 


Weak showers on the sea breeze should dissipate before reaching Waco 
this evening. 


79.. 
$$ 


Discussion... 
137 PM 
upper ridge over the SW Continental U.S. Has expanded back over the majority of 
North Texas...with a weakness/disturbance aloft spinning over deep south Texas 
and inducing sea-breeze convection over the Texas coastal Bend/southeast Texas at this time. 
Meanwhile...the upper ridge has shunted disturbances in northwest flow aloft 
well to the NE of our area over the eastern plains into the Ozarks and lower 
MS valley. 


Expect generally the diurnal hit n' miss variety of late afternoon/early 
evening storms over the southern 1/3 of North Texas toward the lower Brazos River 
Valley each day through Tuesday. Low chances for convection will return 
to all of North Texas later Wednesday into Thursday...as a weak front 
moves southward into KS/OK. It'll mainly be pulse-like/short-lived... 
Summer-like convective activity...as strong sub-tropical ridge aloft 
remains anchored over the area. 


By Friday into next weekend...this front will washout with increasing 
southerly breezes typical of middle-Summer over North Texas...with seasonably hot 
temperatures and humid conditions continuing. It's possible another 
front will move down and stall out sometime early next week...but 
that's beyond the 7-day forecast range. Confidence beyond day 5 in 
Summer is usually low anyway...due to pattern being affected more by 
mesoscale(smaller) features...than synoptic(large-scale) systems 
usually seen around these parts during the cool season/months. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 77 97 77 99 78 / 5 10 5 10 5 
Waco, Texas 73 95 73 96 75 / 10 20 5 20 10 
Paris, Texas 72 94 72 93 74 / 5 10 5 10 5 
Denton, Texas 74 95 75 96 76 / 5 10 5 10 5 
McKinney, Texas 71 94 72 95 73 / 5 10 5 10 5 
Dallas, Texas 78 96 78 97 78 / 5 10 5 10 5 
Terrell, Texas 73 95 73 95 74 / 5 10 5 10 5 
Corsicana, Texas 72 95 73 95 73 / 10 10 5 10 5 
Temple, Texas 71 93 72 93 73 / 20 30 10 30 20 


&& 


Forward watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


/05